@tmwest87 "he filled the void of a cool, calm, and collected candidate." in addition to every candidate on the other side, you know, the ones that actually talk about issues and not the size of their hands or...
@spacezorro Imagine if he had operated on you and you started watching the debates. You'll forever be wondering if he truly had any idea what the fuck he was doing.
@spacezorro To be fair, a Republican intellectual is not what will get the nomination in our current political environment. I can only assume as a brain surgeon, his advisers said something along the lines of Ben you got to play dumb.
Republicans, either Trump or otherwise: sigh. Democrats: sigh. Conservatives: sigh. Liberals: sigh. Hand size: sigh. Sweat factor: sigh. Centrists and Moderates: sigh. And hey, you're about to be labeled as something else. RINOs: sigh.
Issues: sigh. It's time for the spin-universe, and lies, arrogance, pomposity, feel-good, rally-round garbage and misrepresentation from everywhere.
Washington, DC: Ha ha, G Washington, T Jefferson, A Lincoln and many others prob glad they're not buried there.
@caffeine_dude I have some friends who are serious about Sanders. I like some of his stuff, what little i know of it, but do not believe he could get anything thru Congress, and don't believe the economic growth he needs to make eveything works is gonna occur. Havent looked at his stuff in detail, but i'm no socialist. If he truly is, then i'm gonna disagree w him pretty hard in some places.
To me, some degree of free-market modified socialism might be workable (or not), but the sort of socialism that much of the EU practices is a recipe for slowly going the 2nd world direction. China, India, Latin America, Malaysia, etc are gonna eat Europe if Europe doesn't wake up. Europe might be on the road to becoming a nostalgia theme park with lots of architecture, landmarks, and traditions. "Visit Birth-Of-Western-Civilization World!"
Sanders is unlikely to beat Clinton, tho i spoze it's possible. And, supposing he gets the Dem nom - i don't take seriously all those polls showing he could beat a Rep nom in Nov. To me, those polls are designed by the wishful thinking department. The Republicans have not bothered to point their guns at him yet. They think he's an easy target.
Right now, my tea leaf read is: either Pres Trump (NY, NJ wins among others in Nov, poss even Cal) Or Dem pres beats Trump after bitter, bitter battle Or divided, angry Republican party, with Democrat win in Nov Or Republicans manage to somehow pull together behind a not-Trump, and not lose their anger voters and their swing voters, in which case vicious presidential race, unpredictable outcome. Vicious race in every case.
I thought Trump was a clown coming in last summer. Gave him 2 weeks. Then 2 months. Now i have much more respect for brilliant game-master clowns., and for Barnum & Bailey/Ringling Bros strategies.
If Trump gets the nod in July, and doesnt shoot himself in the foot in the fall, suspect he can beat either Dem. Campaign will be v unpredictable, but he's beyond nimble and understands media like no one else.
Trump's surface may appear comic-book to many people, but he's complex and ahead of many parts of the game. As far as i can tell, neither the Rep establishment, the other Rep candidates, nor either Dem candidate has even figured out what he's up to yet w his campaign, or with his long-term plans. Neither have i, btw. Have read some game theory analysis of his stuff that's decent, but even those guys just dont get it. On some level, they aren't paying attention, he's got rings around the intellectual theorists games also, he's not playing the game they analyse. It's politics, so it's always fragile, no certainties. Curiously, the "uneducated" Trump-fans seem to get what the pundits miss in understanding what he's about.
There is only one candidate here who is a master deal-maker, and a master of reality entertainment. And i suspect that despite the pompous, predictable, bombastic news-mesmerizing Trump surface, he's quite complex and quite capable of subtlety.
Besides, no matter what, Wash DC and Congress in particular is still fucked.
@f00l I agree with quite a bit of what you said here. I also have some friends who are pushing Bernie non-stop. I do like what he has to say but I have absolutely no faith that he would be able to accomplish even a quarter of what he throws out there. Even with the possibility of a flip to a Democratic Senate, his ideas are likely unreachable.
As for Trump, I think where he's really in trouble is the number of overall supporters that would come out to vote. The Repubs are so divided because of him that those who don't support him aren't nearly as likely to come out and vote for him. This isn't the case with Clinton/Sanders. The majority of Sanders voters will still throw their support behind Clinton in the name of the party and will vote for her, assuming she's the nominee. Michigan is a perfect example of overall interest. Though Sanders won, Clinton still had 90,000 more votes than Trump. In almost every single general election poll Clinton beats Trump.
Regardless of who wins, this next Presidential term isn't looking very positive.
@cinoclav I paid as little attn as possible to it all until super Tuesday. In Texas, the most conservative candidate will win, so i can ignore a dirty game.
Since then have been watching Trump esp w fascination. I honestly believe his opponents and various talking heads have not sussed out his game. Doubt Dems have either. Trump routinely uses obvious blather and attack dog tactics and stream of consciousness and agressive rhetoric to own the media, win converts, and suck all the oxygen and energy, but i think that's not what he's doing. I think he's doing some v sophisticated combo of behind scenes stuff and tightrope stunts and political gambling and the wheel's spinning his spin in more ways than one. I expect more unpredictability.
@f00l I think you're giving Trump way too much credit. There's no sophisticated game plan lurking behind his campaign. He is exactly what you see and always has been. A blow hard bullshitter who will tell you exactly what you want to hear in order to win you over. I believe Rubio was pretty much correct when he said if Trump hadn't inherited his initial money he'd be selling watches in New York. While he likes to spout off about all his success, he's had numerous failures (huge ones) and bankruptcies. He's had to borrow money from family to get out of the red. He's simply a larger than life character with a giant ego and in this day and age the public is drawn to such train wrecks. I.E. Kardashians, Teen Moms, Jersey Shore, etc...
@cinoclav I was living in NYC when Trump first became a big media figure 35 years ago. Have followed him in a minor way since then, for entertainment. He is the Trump you see, but he's also playing the Trump you see. This guy loves appearing to be simpler than he is. He also doesn't believe in defense when offense is possible. Vince Lombardi school grad.
Last summer, and on Super Tues, i mostly watched the surface i saw. Since then, i started to see - or imagine i was seeing - that there's more going on. When he appears to be an idiot, or provocative, i suspect that's deliberate, part of his Trump persona. He always has opportunities, he generates opportunites for his next move. He also knows Americans like entertaining bulldogs. He plays one well.
@caffeine_dude Beyond Obamacare, Obama got v little done. Then he stopped trying. Maybe it was pointless, but he was Pres, he shoulda tried. That's the job, whether i like him or not.
Yes, i know we are a partially socialized democracy, as is every other country with electric lighting. There are many levels of that, and Sanders wants to go further that way. The words "socialist" alone may make him unelectable. Yeah i know a lotta Reps - or almost all Reps - like big G but won't be honest about it. That won't help Sanders politically at all. They want their big G not his big G.
I personally don't want the US to become another Europe, unless we all wanna just agree that Asian economies and Asian policies are the only real power of the near future. Also i don't believe the Sanders economics predictions regarding US growth are even slightly realistic, and he needs the growth to finance his plans. And Congress will block every thing a Pres Sanders would attempt. They have some practice.
I like some Sanders policy details, but I think the polls showing that he can just go beat a Rep nominee come from fantasyland, i dont care who designs publishes them. I am aware there are such polls. They don't appear to be much discussed by mainstream pollers and stat nerds. And that campaign (Sanders v Republican) isn't yet even at the whispering stage. Just remember what Pres campaigns have been like once Labor Day comes. Nice people who mean well with likeable ideas often get destroyed. Come fall, i expect no-holds madness.
Just my thoughts. I have no crystal ball. Unlikely things happen. These days I am trying to think about the election in terms of what is likely to actually happen, not in terms of what i might hope for in some other, perfect, world. Politics in a democracy, unfortunately, often has v little to do w what good people might want. And once in a great while some stuff that still looks good decades later actually happens. So who knows.
@cinoclav Other presidents facing a hostile Congress woulda really fought back - if need be, hard, mean, think LBJ tactics; backstage, public, whatever, and not quit. Can you imagine any other president since WWII (other than Carter) being this publicly passive? The most successful of them, from either party, never would have quit trying to own and drive the public narrative and the congressional direction. Ok, the Congress is completely hostile to Obama, but if you are Pres, you dont just go back to the White House. And Obama could have tried to actually win the public narrative, with the same energy a Kennedy or a Reagan would have tried to win it. Perhaps impossible, but you don't just give up if you are Pres. The jobs is about being a fighter 24/7. I wish Obama had done this, wish he would do it now, because that's the job. To me, he is too wedded to making only "Harvard" arguments and then losing in a dignified manner, which is civilized....but our presidency is a rougher game than that. If you run, you outta play if elected, even if your chances are nothing, even if you wind up torn to pieces.
Ok this is just me. I am not terribly wise. Will check out yr link later.
Now if only HRC would drop to stop from becoming the next Jimmy Carter.
@DrunkCat I think you mean "get kicked off the island" instead of "drop"
Sad to hear the news.
He was a great spokesperson for the Seventh-Day Adventist Church... of which he rarely spoke about???
He was the only comic relief left in this election. I'll miss him.
@cation except for all of the other comic relief?
Irk 4 President!
Smartest thing he did in this race was drop out.
@liz Thanks Ben, for showing us the fruit salad of your life.
@liz
I already miss his presence on the debate stage. After Thursday's monstrosity, I realized he filled the void of a cool, calm, and collected candidate.
@tmwest87 The morgan freeman of presidential elections
@tmwest87 "he filled the void of a cool, calm, and collected candidate." in addition to every candidate on the other side, you know, the ones that actually talk about issues and not the size of their hands or...
@Kyser_Soze I believe the word you were looking for was personalities
I will miss him. He taught me that the pyramids were actually grain silos... Not tombs.
@spacezorro That was one of my personal favorites.
@spacezorro Imagine if he had operated on you and you started watching the debates. You'll forever be wondering if he truly had any idea what the fuck he was doing.
@spacezorro To be fair, a Republican intellectual is not what will get the nomination in our current political environment. I can only assume as a brain surgeon, his advisers said something along the lines of Ben you got to play dumb.
@caffeine_dude Well, if that's true he certainly knows how to follow direction.
Republicans, either Trump or otherwise: sigh.
Democrats: sigh.
Conservatives: sigh.
Liberals: sigh.
Hand size: sigh.
Sweat factor: sigh.
Centrists and Moderates: sigh. And hey, you're about to be labeled as something else.
RINOs: sigh.
Issues: sigh. It's time for the spin-universe, and lies, arrogance, pomposity, feel-good, rally-round garbage and misrepresentation from everywhere.
Washington, DC: Ha ha, G Washington, T Jefferson, A Lincoln and many others prob glad they're not buried there.
Anyone up for drugs?
It's a good season for lies.
@f00l Do yourself a favor, check out the Burn unit, his voting follows his speeches.
@caffeine_dude
I have some friends who are serious about Sanders. I like some of his stuff, what little i know of it, but do not believe he could get anything thru Congress, and don't believe the economic growth he needs to make eveything works is gonna occur. Havent looked at his stuff in detail, but i'm no socialist. If he truly is, then i'm gonna disagree w him pretty hard in some places.
To me, some degree of free-market modified socialism might be workable (or not), but the sort of socialism that much of the EU practices is a recipe for slowly going the 2nd world direction. China, India, Latin America, Malaysia, etc are gonna eat Europe if Europe doesn't wake up. Europe might be on the road to becoming a nostalgia theme park with lots of architecture, landmarks, and traditions. "Visit Birth-Of-Western-Civilization World!"
Sanders is unlikely to beat Clinton, tho i spoze it's possible. And, supposing he gets the Dem nom - i don't take seriously all those polls showing he could beat a Rep nom in Nov. To me, those polls are designed by the wishful thinking department. The Republicans have not bothered to point their guns at him yet. They think he's an easy target.
Right now, my tea leaf read is:
either Pres Trump (NY, NJ wins among others in Nov, poss even Cal)
Or Dem pres beats Trump after bitter, bitter battle
Or divided, angry Republican party, with Democrat win in Nov
Or Republicans manage to somehow pull together behind a not-Trump, and not lose their anger voters and their swing voters, in which case vicious presidential race, unpredictable outcome.
Vicious race in every case.
I thought Trump was a clown coming in last summer. Gave him 2 weeks. Then 2 months. Now i have much more respect for brilliant game-master clowns., and for Barnum & Bailey/Ringling Bros strategies.
If Trump gets the nod in July, and doesnt shoot himself in the foot in the fall, suspect he can beat either Dem. Campaign will be v unpredictable, but he's beyond nimble and understands media like no one else.
Trump's surface may appear comic-book to many people, but he's complex and ahead of many parts of the game. As far as i can tell, neither the Rep establishment, the other Rep candidates, nor either Dem candidate has even figured out what he's up to yet w his campaign, or with his long-term plans. Neither have i, btw. Have read some game theory analysis of his stuff that's decent, but even those guys just dont get it. On some level, they aren't paying attention, he's got rings around the intellectual theorists games also, he's not playing the game they analyse. It's politics, so it's always fragile, no certainties. Curiously, the "uneducated" Trump-fans seem to get what the pundits miss in understanding what he's about.
There is only one candidate here who is a master deal-maker, and a master of reality entertainment. And i suspect that despite the pompous, predictable, bombastic news-mesmerizing Trump surface, he's quite complex and quite capable of subtlety.
Besides, no matter what, Wash DC and Congress in particular is still fucked.
Train wreck, but i can't turn away.
@f00l I agree with quite a bit of what you said here. I also have some friends who are pushing Bernie non-stop. I do like what he has to say but I have absolutely no faith that he would be able to accomplish even a quarter of what he throws out there. Even with the possibility of a flip to a Democratic Senate, his ideas are likely unreachable.
As for Trump, I think where he's really in trouble is the number of overall supporters that would come out to vote. The Repubs are so divided because of him that those who don't support him aren't nearly as likely to come out and vote for him. This isn't the case with Clinton/Sanders. The majority of Sanders voters will still throw their support behind Clinton in the name of the party and will vote for her, assuming she's the nominee. Michigan is a perfect example of overall interest. Though Sanders won, Clinton still had 90,000 more votes than Trump. In almost every single general election poll Clinton beats Trump.
Regardless of who wins, this next Presidential term isn't looking very positive.
@cinoclav
I paid as little attn as possible to it all until super Tuesday. In Texas, the most conservative candidate will win, so i can ignore a dirty game.
Since then have been watching Trump esp w fascination. I honestly believe his opponents and various talking heads have not sussed out his game. Doubt Dems have either. Trump routinely uses obvious blather and attack dog tactics and stream of consciousness and agressive rhetoric to own the media, win converts, and suck all the oxygen and energy, but i think that's not what he's doing. I think he's doing some v sophisticated combo of behind scenes stuff and tightrope stunts and political gambling and the wheel's spinning his spin in more ways than one. I expect more unpredictability.
@f00l I think you're giving Trump way too much credit. There's no sophisticated game plan lurking behind his campaign. He is exactly what you see and always has been. A blow hard bullshitter who will tell you exactly what you want to hear in order to win you over. I believe Rubio was pretty much correct when he said if Trump hadn't inherited his initial money he'd be selling watches in New York. While he likes to spout off about all his success, he's had numerous failures (huge ones) and bankruptcies. He's had to borrow money from family to get out of the red. He's simply a larger than life character with a giant ego and in this day and age the public is drawn to such train wrecks. I.E. Kardashians, Teen Moms, Jersey Shore, etc...
@cinoclav
I was living in NYC when Trump first became a big media figure 35 years ago. Have followed him in a minor way since then, for entertainment. He is the Trump you see, but he's also playing the Trump you see. This guy loves appearing to be simpler than he is. He also doesn't believe in defense when offense is possible. Vince Lombardi school grad.
Last summer, and on Super Tues, i mostly watched the surface i saw. Since then, i started to see - or imagine i was seeing - that there's more going on. When he appears to be an idiot, or provocative, i suspect that's deliberate, part of his Trump persona. He always has opportunities, he generates opportunites for his next move. He also knows Americans like entertaining bulldogs. He plays one well.
Perhaps i'm kidding myself. Who knows?
You made my favorite augment. "I don't think Sanders is electable". Polls have him beating Trump, where the same polls show Hillary loosing to Trump. We already enjoy the Socialized Democracy, see here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/3/29/1078852/-75-Ways-Socialism-Has-Improved-America . He is beating the Republicans to the punch, they called Obama a Socialist. Newt likes big government, but can not admit to it, see #2 http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/03/03/147466/newt-gingrich-10-things/
Obama, who the Republican's agenda was to block all that is Obama http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/02/AR2010110207506.html
still got crap done http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2012/features/obamas_top_50_accomplishments035755.php/
(one being the TPP)that I do not agree with but still.
@caffeine_dude
Beyond Obamacare, Obama got v little done. Then he stopped trying. Maybe it was pointless, but he was Pres, he shoulda tried. That's the job, whether i like him or not.
Yes, i know we are a partially socialized democracy, as is every other country with electric lighting. There are many levels of that, and Sanders wants to go further that way. The words "socialist" alone may make him unelectable. Yeah i know a lotta Reps - or almost all Reps - like big G but won't be honest about it. That won't help Sanders politically at all. They want their big G not his big G.
I personally don't want the US to become another Europe, unless we all wanna just agree that Asian economies and Asian policies are the only real power of the near future. Also i don't believe the Sanders economics predictions regarding US growth are even slightly realistic, and he needs the growth to finance his plans. And Congress will block every thing a Pres Sanders would attempt. They have some practice.
I like some Sanders policy details, but I think the polls showing that he can just go beat a Rep nominee come from fantasyland, i dont care who designs publishes them. I am aware there are such polls. They don't appear to be much discussed by mainstream pollers and stat nerds. And that campaign (Sanders v Republican) isn't yet even at the whispering stage. Just remember what Pres campaigns have been like once Labor Day comes. Nice people who mean well with likeable ideas often get destroyed. Come fall, i expect no-holds madness.
Just my thoughts. I have no crystal ball. Unlikely things happen. These days I am trying to think about the election in terms of what is likely to actually happen, not in terms of what i might hope for in some other, perfect, world. Politics in a democracy, unfortunately, often has v little to do w what good people might want. And once in a great while some stuff that still looks good decades later actually happens. So who knows.
@caffeine_dude Not sure where you're getting your polling information but typically when they show Sanders beating Trump, they also show Clinton beating Trump.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
@f00l I think you need to either revisit or take a broader look at what has been accomplished under President Obama. Considering Congress has spent most of his two terms trying to negate every move he's made, he has managed to accomplish much more than people generally give him credit for.
http://hubpages.com/politics/What-has-President-Obama-Done-Right-in-Almost-Three-Years-LOTS
http://pleasecutthecrap.com/obama-accomplishments/
http://theweek.com/articles/597635/extraordinarily-complicated-successes-president-obama
@cinoclav
Other presidents facing a hostile Congress woulda really fought back - if need be, hard, mean, think LBJ tactics; backstage, public, whatever, and not quit. Can you imagine any other president since WWII (other than Carter) being this publicly passive? The most successful of them, from either party, never would have quit trying to own and drive the public narrative and the congressional direction. Ok, the Congress is completely hostile to Obama, but if you are Pres, you dont just go back to the White House. And Obama could have tried to actually win the public narrative, with the same energy a Kennedy or a Reagan would have tried to win it. Perhaps impossible, but you don't just give up if you are Pres. The jobs is about being a fighter 24/7. I wish Obama had done this, wish he would do it now, because that's the job. To me, he is too wedded to making only "Harvard" arguments and then losing in a dignified manner, which is civilized....but our presidency is a rougher game than that. If you run, you outta play if elected, even if your chances are nothing, even if you wind up torn to pieces.
Ok this is just me. I am not terribly wise. Will check out yr link later.