@PlacidPenguinPoints vs. Percentage Pedantry: The Dow was around 11,000 on 9/11 and it’s around 18,300 now, so that’s a drop of 5% then vs a drop of 3.7% today. (Besides, it’s just the futures.)
@PlacidPenguin given how much money wall street had shoveled into one of the other candidate’s pockets, only to have that candidate not win the expected position to quid pro quo… perhaps the analysts have reason to be depressed.
@KDemo I’m sorry, that makes it so personal. This year I’ve dealt with physical ailments, minor bur sequential, so didn’t work. A friend just (this evening) discovered her husband doesn’t much care what happens and is not sympathetic to her pain.
All stock market futures trading was halted after the 5% loss triggered the ‘emergency brake’. And the Canadian Immigration website has crashed. Both these things are real. Okay, futures trading has now resumed.
@Kidsandliz It was indeed. Short version: the moderator asked essentially ‘what-the-actual-fuck’ and Silver explained details about what they missed, why they missed it, what the biggest surprises were, and the holes in their sampling. They took selected email questions from people attending, but didn’t get to mine. I wanted to know whether Luddites and their fears about the cyber were a factor. I still do.
@baqui63 Yes, the video is available on the Charles Schwab site. If you sign up on the site to ‘Become a Schwab Live Insider’, you can ‘Watch videos from past Schwab Live broadcasts.’ I’m not shilling for them, it was the Nate Silver aspect that interested me. His site, fivethirtyeight.com, has a lengthy article, with video and links, discussing the same things today: ‘Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Drumpf A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else’.
It won’t let you sign up for the Silver interview. Because it’s over. But if you sign up for future events you can the access the past events library.
Ok so the next event is Albright in December. Signed up. Only the site is locked for me because the event is next month. So I can’t get to the Silver stuff. Once they unlock the site for December’s event I will presumably be able to do the Silver stuff. Only I would like to do it now, Schwab fuckers.
If you have a sign in for a past event, I’m guessing that you can also get to the Silver stuff. It’s s really fucked up system. Unless I got lost in it somehow. Mostly I regret wasting an hour messing with the site trying to get in.
However, fivethirtyeight.com has several podcasts. The main podcast covers this. This first show after the 8th was a shellshock show kinda. In the next show they defended their model in some detail. They will prob upload a new podcast Monday.
I also wanna know why the LA Times polls turned out better than others, and why the rust belt polls were very so far off (was it just po’ed voters who lied? Well designed polls do rural polling and weight it), and why about 30% of hispanics voted for Trump, tho I have heard some info on that last question locally.
And then. And then.
I am hearing a lot of massive confusion on the left and right. And center, not that there is one.
Ands Pres Trump pressures things at the personal level. Gotta make choices that are more pointed. Prob needed to do that anyway.
TL;DR if you want info on Silver’s polls, subscribe to the site podcast.
@f00l Ah, another hapless victim sucked into the morass of analytics! Welcome! At this rate we’ll need an initiation rite and a secret tattoo. We already have a motto, attributed to Disraeli by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
@OldCatLady
You mean stats lie as opposed to words?
Yeah it’s a fascinating addiction
Pls note that Silver’s process was technically not too bad. His ~40% Trump victory result was way way better than any other aggregator’s.
And in his podcasts the team repeatedly warned about and defined “margin of error” and “polling error” and spoke in detail about herding and wishful-thinking adjustment temptations. I know those things, a bit. I let myself not focus on them.
I was shocked and depressed by the results. Because I really really really didn’t want Trump as President, and let emotions and wishful-thinking predominate. And because it was and it difficult for me (on an emotional level) to fully comprehend how people I know and have personal respect for as decent colleagues/family could vote for him.
Let my guard down. The next few days after were tough.
@Mehrocco_Mole I’m sorry, but I think you misspelled a word or two between the phrases “polls ignored” and “so no”… The spelling you might have meant was: “morons who have no idea what idiocy possessed them, or what havoc they have wreaked.”
@Mehrocco_Mole That was my prediction. The ‘never vote’ voted, pollsters ignored the ‘never vote’. My guess is we find out higher turnout on the Republican side. Remember about 1/2 of our country votes in a typical election.
OR Hillary was going to win by a landslide so Dem turnout was low. Most likely a combo of both.
@PhysAssist That is literally an example of what Mole was referring to. Instead of a discussion, nothing but vilifying and hatred toward anyone who thinks differently. That’s both accepting and progressive…
@caffeine_dude Actually, with the exception of a few of the northern swing states with a lot of union manufacturing jobs, participation was down all around. Trump got fewer total votes than either McCain or Romney (300k-1300k votes respectively.) It’s just that Clinton got WAY fewer votes than either of Obama’s two elections (11 million, 6 million.) The democrats have been losing about 5-6 million votes per presidential election over the last two cycles. The Dem base got complacent or couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton, I guess. Only the third parties beat their totals from 2008 and 2012. Not enough to matter though.
Books I’ve been reading: ‘White Trash, the 400 year Untold History of Class in America’, and Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock trilogy. I just hate it when things come alive out of these books. Actualization, that’s the word. Jameson’s, that the next word.
Honetly, I didn’t feel much better about Hilary either. The Walton family wanted NAFTA/ and cheap shit that they could up 90% but still price below good stuff Hummmmmmmmmmmm
@cranky1950 Acrtually Hillary would be a better president as she has trained for this ever since she worked for Abdraham Ribicoff. True she’s owned/part of the 1%. The Donald is owned by the Russians and the Chinese, that is why the tax statement were never produced. The guy is a sock puppet.
@katylava I am unjustifiably unnerved at the number of times I have seen this joke retold incorrectly. The punchline is “Hold my beer.” I’ve seen it as “Check this out” and “Hold my drink” and “Watch this.” It’s so much better, descriptive, and illustrative to say “Hold my beer.”
Too many people want happy slogans or angry slogans or I’ll fix it slogans or we’re more virtuous than you slogans or something else way too simple.
In my feeble opinion neither party ever deals seriously in campaigns with economic reality.
The Right tends to promise philosophical agendas that are not supported by data, and are theoretically impoverished compared to where the economic theory ought to be. And a less impoverished and less mythical economic theory would blow their purist agenda. And they go on promising that their purism will “make it better”,
The Left tends to promise wide social solutions without considering whether they are affordable.
The various govt departments that deal with commerce are pretty much bought and sold by corporate interests, as are way too many people in Congress. The govt departments that deal in social and human issues are caught politically between the ideologies in power at a given moment.
Politicians promise pretty visions to get votes. They don’t offer any sort of believable path to the achievement of what they promise, and often then don’t intend to. They know those promises aren’t achievable.
People buy into the visions that their fav politician offers. People don’t want hard reality. They don’t want economic reality or geopolitical reality.
The best hope of actually achieving any kind of prosperity that reaches many people may well lie somewhere near the center - the center that we used to have. It involved imuch compromise and working together. It involved getting better and doing better piece by piece over time. Figuring things out to solve problems, not saber rattling or purist philosophy or Dirty Harry impersonations. These are things we used to do.
Too many voters are willing to buy into any lie that makes them feel like there is a magic answer or a magic expression of anger.
That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat. That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat. That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat. That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat…
This is the message delivered tonight. Washington and the elite establishment has failed the American people. IMHO: America didn’t vote Trump, they didn’t vote Republican. The American people voted to end the cycle.
@InnocuousFarmer
We once feared more for our survival because of the cold war. So people worked together to an extent.
The “greatest generation” went thru the depression together, and then thru World War II together. These (esp the 2nd) gave them a sense they their commonality was far greater than their various differences.
Corporations once treated many (not all) of their employees far better, and were less likely to pillage the economy. So more trust. Employees were willing to be loyal, because that often worked out.
Those discriminated against were willing for the most part to work more within the system than outside it with violence.
There were strong across-society presumptions of the need for public civility. People could be shamed into better public behavior.
We once did not feel that every single company we did business with (excepting meh and a few others) was out to steal from us and abuse us with happy faces.
I have always believed that if this country failed, it would be from within.
Things feel very very dangerous and fragile now. And if our nation fails, or simply fails in leadership, there is no likely 2nd place country on the side of democracy to step up in leadership - economic or philosophical.
Was watching one network (not saying which) explain for about 7 minutes (or that’s what it felt like) that unlike the NY Times, they won’t declare winners for states until all the votes are counted.
Of course, for the last 2 hours, they weren’t saying anything new.
I could have been catching up on Designated Survivor, Lucifer, or watched Finding Dory, Ted 2, or *Ice Age: Collision Course
@PlacidPenguin haha NBC is doing that too. They’re talking like we just found out a meteor is about to hit the earth. It actually got my hopes up that it was true. I was let down when I looked in the nightsky and didn’t see impending doom
@Mehrocco_Mole I’ve heard some Trump supporters refer to him as “political chemotherapy”. I.e. burn the system down and then it can only get better. In theory.
@carl669 Drink recipe: one shot each of liquor produced by each red state (Utah can provide honey syrup). Serve over ice. Call it the Giant Meteor. Garnish with giant Cheeto.
The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn. The Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work and then they get elected and prove it.
@Mehrocco_Mole BINGO!!! Both sides are SO corrupt that neither a Republican nor a Democrate was voted in, it was a successful business man that was voted in to be the next POTUS. That expresses Americans feelings BEYOND words could ever begin to form. No more career politicians that are only interested in gaining power and making empty promises instead of concentrating on building America & Americans to be successful & great again! The next 4 yrs should be very interesting to say the least.
@awk “political chemotherapy”… yeah in theory is right. Had chemo. Still going to die of my cancer and now other things are fucked up because of it. The problem I see is he will rashly nuke stuff and not think through with what it will be replaced and it may be really hard to undo the damage later. For example wholesale trashing Obama care and guess what. I can’t get insurance because that will ditch the can’t consider pre-existing conditions clause. And he is considering an oil tycoon and Palin to be the Secretary of Interior. Good by wilderness, federal parks and forests. Put, for example, mining in there and you can’t undo that.
@MrsPavlov I saw that. I dismissed it. Sure, he made sense once, but now he’s obviously lost it, I said. I watched Full Frontal’s Monday show, and brushed off the segment on what happens to political journalists in Russia as hyperbole. Samantha Bee is doing a post-election special tonight, and you’d better believe I’ll be watching.
Anyone think Canada needs to build a wall to keep all the whiners out?
Seriously, even if you do not agree with his politics you have to accept that Donald Trump is #45.
Eight years ago (and again four years ago) a man I did not feel was the leader this country needed was elected. But he was elected President. Despite any misgivings I had, any political differences I had, he had/has my respect as the man who leads this country as the President and as the Commander in Chief of our military.
We now must accept, just as Hillary has, the fact Donald Trump is President-elect of The United States of America.
We are Americans first. We must respect the office and the man who was elected by the majority of Americans to be our 45th Pesident.
“Get over it” as something for politicians to instruct others to do has been popular for decades or centuries.
“Get over it” as something for one’s self to do has not been popular in the political universe for some time. No more than taking politicians responsibility. Politicians do not, as a rule take responsibility. And they are not, as a rule, anything close to honest.
This doesn’t mean I think they are all equivalent - they are not. Despite my having misjudged many of them because I judged them on ideology, and the ones I disagreed with often did better that I had conceived; and the ones who reflected my beliefs often did far worse.
Despite all that, most people do get over things, and most of us here will get over things, without any need for prompting; even terrible things; and go forward.
Or live to fight another day; or find another cause to champion; or find a cause for hope; or turn inward; or just soldier on. I hope I and those close to me will find whatever it takes in good times and bad.
@Mehrocco_Mole Canada is too smart to build a wall as they have the good sense to know that it is easier to destroy than to build. As I fear we are about to see on a less literal fashion in our political system. Yes, the government is deeply flawed and rotten to the core. But I can’t name any large country with a better one. It astounds me that the majority of my fellow countrymen are in favor of burning it down and replacing it with what? The builder they have chosen is so bald faced greedy Gordon Gekko would be embarassed in his company. His ideology is “fuck anyone dumb enough to do business with me, as long as I come out ahead I am a winner”. I can’t conceive how anyone could think a rebuild by someone with that mentality could possibly benefit the average American. The fox has been hired to renovate the henhouse, and it was the hens that hired him.
I’ll show President Drumpf the same kind of respect that he’s shown President Obama, Mexicans, women, blacks, the disabled, the poor, the media, the truth. In other words, I will mock, oppose and undermine him at every opportunity, probably generally with more purpose than motivates him, but also just for fun.
No, I don’t respect this country–not above reason or compassion. And I certainly don’t believe that its institutions or offices deserve any more respect than humanity or human dignity and decency. I have absolutely no respect for Donald Drumpf. He’s done worse than failing to earn it; he’s actively campaigned to lose it.
Finally, “get over it” is what white straight men have been telling women, blacks, gays et al. for generations. It’s what “job creators” tell their wage slaves. It’s what any abuser or privileged class tells those who question that privilege or cry out against abuse. We won’t get over it.
And you may in fact be too ignorant to know this, but a quadrennial election isn’t the only means that citizens have to engage politically. It’s not over.
And you may in fact be too ignorant to know this, but a quadrennial election isn’t the only means that citizens have to engage politically. It’s not over.
One thing has become abundantly clear in this election and is reflected in your comments: liberals are far more intolerant of those who don’t agree with them than those they accuse of being intolerant. And then they hurl insults and start name calling. Wow.
Even Obama stated that Trump won and will receive the respect due to the next President of the United States. The same respect shown him during the Bush/Obama transition. A smooth transition and with full cooperation. When the Clinton’s left the White House they took furniture (which they had to return) and all the W caps from the keyboards.
So allow me to expand on my comment: Get over it and grow the fuck up!
As this is fast becoming a flame war I will have no further comments on this subject. You do what you think necessary.
@Mehrocco_Mole Not to get into this too much, but the intolerant/butthurts/insult name callers are on both camps. Just like you. You name called on your first post… So I don’t see why you are getting so worked up about…
@Mehrocco_Mole People have a right to grieve. It is valid to be upset and concerned when a candidate you strongly distrust has been elected to the highest office. So FUCK YOU and your FUCKING INSENSITIVE command that everyone just “Get over it,” less than 24 hours after the results they found so devestating came in. If we believe anything Trump said throughout his campaign, many people in this country have legitimate reasons to believe that their well-being has been threatened by these results.
And, for what it’s worth you now have the distinction of being, I believe, the first person I’ve ever told “fuck you”. Way to go, buddy!
@Mehrocco_Mole Uhhhhhh when did the Repubs “get over” the election of President Obama? Either of them actually (both of which he won with over 50% of the popular vote unlike the Cheeto stain you just can’t wash out)? You didn’t. The house and senate refused to work with him and uneducated white males complained about him for 8 years. Now it’s the Dems turn to repay the favor. You wanted Cheeto Jesus, now you have to deal with the majority of Americans counting down the days until he’s impeached for being found guilty in the rape of a minor and fraud charges he goes on trial for in the next few weeks.
@Mehrocco_Mole Where did I engage in name-calling or flaming?
I’ll be waiting for your response.
I’ll match every one of my comments on this thread against yours in terms of its substance-to-bullshit and substance-to-“name-calling.” Moreover, at least I had the decency to actually respond to your comment, instead of just piling on more insults.
Please, if you have reasoned objections to what I said, I’d be happy to hear them, paragraph by paragraph. Show me how much better you are than me, buddy. I’m ready to take my medicine.
@lisaviolet There really is none. I may be showing my age but this reaction to President-elect Trump is reminiscent of when Reagan was elected. The doom-sayers came out of the woodwork. “How could we elect an actor to the office of the POTUS?” But like him or not he was an effective President.
The only point I’m trying to make here is the election is over. Trump won. Let’s move on.
@joelmw Earlier I stated I’m done, I’ve had my say. But apparently we’re still in middle school and I’m being called out. OKay. (I will admit that was a bit too snarky but I couldn’t resist)
I never said you were flaming; I said it was fast becoming a flame war. And it was being fed from all sides including me. I have no desire to participate in a flame war so as stated earlier, I’m done… almost.
It’s President-elect Trump not President Drumpf. That is name calling by its very definition. If you can’t show respect for the man at least try to show respect for the office. It’s part of the healing process.
Calling me ignorant because my views are different than yours is a bit intolerant and again name calling. And it was getting personal. Substance-to-bullshit. What bullshit? Again the only point I am trying to make here is the election is over. Trump won. Let’s move on. Show me how much better you are than me. Nope. Not going there. I don’t know you. You don’t know me. You’ve done right by me in the past so I have no intentions of taking anything outside of this thread.
@christinewas I apologize for my snarky reply: I’m pretty sure you were not offering sex. I over-reacted to what I considered was your over-reaction.
At no time did I say your feelings, beliefs, or reactions were not valid. Nor did I put a time frame on anything. To me get over it means to let it go. It’s a done deal. Step back, regroup, and figure out where you are going next.
Back in the 60’s we marched against Viet Nam. We burned bras and draft cards. Put flowers in gun barrels and got arrested for our cause. We pumped our fists to show support and never trusted anyone over 30. Mostly to no avail and without validation. But we learned something. If you want to change the system you hate you must become the system to make changes from within. That is where the Clinton’s came from. The difference between the Clinton’s and I is we got to today via different paths. I lived through the Clinton presidency. Followed his impeachment and exoneration. So I have my reasons for not trusting the Clinton family as a whole. My feelings and beliefs are just as valid as yours. I wish you well and hope you can overcome your grief.
And finally @jchatman. Cheeto stain? Cheeto Jesus? Uneducated white males? Again with the name calling? Did you know that 49% of the educated white male voted for President-elect Trump? And per Roper 93% of the African-American vote went to President Obama in 2012? I say so what? All of these people voted in a manner they felt was best for them. That’s how it works.
And just where did I say or imply I didn’t get over it?
To all: First and foremost I am not a Republican. As a matter of fact I’m registered as an Independent. The last time (prior to this election) I voted for a Republican was when I voted for Reagan. If I had to pick a political party I think I identify more as a Libertarian than anything else. But I am a flag waving, veteran of the military, proud to be American first and foremost.
@Mehrocco_Mole Although neither Trump nor his father ever bore the surname Drumpf, it is in fact his German family name. Whether or not Trump’s grandfather anglicized the name at some point remains unclear although most scholars now agree it was most likely changed sometime between 1885 and 1892, most likely due to the prevailing prejudice against Germans in the United States during that time period.
@Pavlov Interesting. I didn’t know that. There were a lot of people who americanized their name during that era. Schmidt to Smith for example. BTW: Ellis Island changing names was a myth.
But we don’t use Barry Soetoro, William J. Blythe III, or Leslie King Jr. when referring to Presidents Barack Obama, William J. Clinton, or Gerald Ford. These were the names they were born with. (President Obama’s is fuzzy because he was born Barack H. Obama. Soetoro was his step-dad. Barry Soetoro was what his Mom called him for years.)
Over the past 8 years Barry was used by some to refer to President Obama in a derisive way. Much the same way Drumpf is being used now. It was disrespectful toward President Obama. It is disrespectful to President-elect Trump.
@Mehrocco_Mole IME, with many that use Drumpf, it resonates within them no more than calling a Shriver a Kennedy (which admittedly can be used derogatorily). Personally, I wouldn’t label the use name-calling. That doesn’t mean however that I can’t see your point. I just had a feeling you may have been unaware of the origin. In your example, both Clinton and Ford’s names were legally changed. Interestingly, there is no documentation provided or found (yet) that reflects a legal name change away from Drumpf, aside from it being legally recognized.
@Mehrocco_Mole Did you call people out when they called President Obama “Obummer” or “Barrack Inseinn O’bowdown”? How about “Gaybama” or “Teleprompter Jesus”? I’m willing to bet you laughed and came up with your own personal nicknames for the President of the United States who won the election with over 50% of the popular vote. Twice. You should ask that your picture be added next to hypocrite in the dictionary. And if you want “healing” may I refer you the great words of Harry Reid:
“If this is going to be a time of healing, we must first put the responsibility for healing where it belongs: at the feet of Donald Trump, a sexual predator who lost the popular vote and fueled his campaign with bigotry and hate. Winning the electoral college does not absolve Trump of the grave sins he committed against millions of Americans. Donald Trump may not possess the capacity to assuage those fears, but he owes it to this nation to try. If Trump wants to roll back the tide of hate he unleashed, he has a tremendous amount of work to do and he must begin immediately.”
And if you want to know where the protesting Americans got the idea to protest, look no further than the republican party.
@Mehrocco_Mole Cute comic strip. Where as the president-elect said “The election is rigged!!! … Unless I win”. The doublespeak of the orange one in real time, said loudly and often, vs a comic strip? Yeah, I’ll leave Archie News to you and stick with what’s really happening in front of me. But keep us posted on Jughead, will ya? I sometimes wonder about that guy.
So what? Seriously, so what? I have no respect for Mr. Trump. In fact, I called him an orangutan under my breath after I met him and then it immediately dawned upon me that I was disparaging apes. I regret I didn’t say MORE to him directly then I did regarding my personal contempt for his platform and rhetoric. Suffice it to say, he got an earful. I’m not at all shy and I will tell you to your face when I think you’re an idiot. And, I have even less respect for many of the people Trump chooses to surround himself with. That being said, I have EVERY respect for the office of the President. Showing disrespect or even disdain for the presumptive inaugurate as a person versus the office they may one day hold are two very different things in my opinion. And although I am acutely aware that neither is requisite, it is my personal feeling that the office should be respected - knowing there are some whom do not share my view and understanding that is their right.
Please please please remember this 4 years from now: The independent votes could have swung this election in either direction.
I wholeheartedly agree with needing another serious option or two, but it was too little, too late this year. I personally really wanted a third party until I carefully calculated that third parties were not having enough of an impact on major states and could not appeal to the bulk of voters.
Consider that in this election, voters using their ballots for a major third party may have changed the outcome of: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin, (+ more), enough to change the election. Votes for Gary Johnson alone could have changed the entire election if they had been used instead for one of the two major candidates.
@placeholder you have no idea who people would have voted for if not Johnson. I suspect we “stole” more Trump than Clinton votes. But more than that, i suspect many would simply not have voted, or have written something in. Major party voters need to stop pretending they know what alternate party voters are thinking. We are very different from you. You cannot fathom it.
Your personal vote does not need to be a strategy game. Vote your damn conscience, even if that means writing someone in. The two dominant parties will not change until enough people get the courage to stop playing their game. Every election, no matter what.
The only people at fault are the ones who voted for Trump despite their misgivings. Johnson was a much better choice for them.
@katylava You seem to be taking my comment very personally. I’m not assuming anything about anyone’s personal party affiliations, so please read and consider my message again. I am trying to make a point that the independent votes could have a greater impact on the overall election result than some people make them out to be, regardless of which candidate you are voting for. I do not begrudge you wanting to vote for an independent candidate (as I said, i almost did myself), but just to consider next election cycle that there are sometimes bigger fish to fry.
Next election cycle, I will root for whoever I agree with. I will campaign and urge others to consider their side. If, however, that candidate has weak polling and does not make it to any debates, I will once again reevaluate my choices.
Please also consider that this isn’t just about the presidency, it is about setting the right people in the Supreme Court that coincide with your beliefs. These appointments are for life, so if you do not have a say in the overall election by the alignment of your vote, your choice can have a much broader impact.
@placeholder Sorry about that. I’ve been hearing a lot of hate for 3rd party voters today, and assumed yours was in the same vein.
While you do make a good point, I still disagree. If you want to think about the bigger bigger picture when you vote, then these parties need to change, and the best way to do that is to vote for someone else. Strong partisanship is part of why we end up with less thoughtful justices.
Personally, I’m not going to let polling influence my vote, because I strongly believe you should vote for who you think is best, not against who you think is worse. I just don’t see how it could ever be good to vote against instead of for, except maybe maybe in the short term, if you’re lucky.
But then, I’m a dues-paying, card-carrying, capital-L Libertarian, so obvs I will continue to vote as such until I no longer agree with the party platform.
@katylava I understand your point. While we may respectfully disagree with each other on voting, I’m happy for this civil debate about it. Hopefully together we can make some change in the next election (which it seems we both want)! Cheers!
@Ignorant , @katylava. Absolutely. If everyone had believed the polls HC would be were DT is now… and we would still be equally screwed.
Until we as a country come to accept the fact that there IS a Libertarian party and it does have a platform and ideals that make sense the last few election cycles will continue ad nauseum…
@chienfou The Libertarian candidate, Johnson, was simply not electable. If the party can find someone who knows where Aleppo is and who can resist constant clowning during interviews, they will be a viable choice in 2020.
@placeholder I voted straight Green because those are my values. The Democrats may not be quite as bad as the Republicans, but they–and especially the Clintons–are full-time employees (and, hell, members) of the plutocracy. Hillary is light years better than Drumpf on numerous issues, but that’s only because he’s so horribly horribly bad.
And if Hillary and her supporters hadn’t done such a fine job of lying about, dismissing, shaming, condescending to and otherwise alienating the Left, I’m pretty sure they would have won this goddamned election with ease. This loss is on them. And that all they can do at this point is cast blame on folks who might have been their allies but didn’t fall in line for the abuse speaks volumes about their integrity and credibility.
I honestly don’t have the heart for this ridiculous argument right now. Briefly, as long as folks keep accepting and voting for the status quo (which, btw, includes that asshole Drumpf), the status quo is all they’re going to get. I’m done with it.
@OldCatLady You’re welcome to it, even if it’s not the slightest bit a rational position. Especially since a lot of those voters were in states where it didn’t affect the election one bit. In fact, the only rational vote in states like California where one party always wins unless it’s a bloodbath is to vote third party. Otherwise your vote is completely meaningless.
@PlacidPenguin That’s because you’re the goat penguin of the month.
It may also have to do with the device; this was on an older AMD-A6 desktop running W7P and Chrome. On my Windows Phones, the profile pages lazy load pretty quickly. On my Android phone … forget it.
What does it say about me that this was the first place I came to this morning for info/reaction after watching the 0200 CST speech from DT and crew… and then immediately going to bed.
@gustador My hope and sincere belief is that he won’t last a year; I’d put it at three months (though that may only be the beginning of impeachment proceedings. On the other hand, Pence is no prize either. What the fuck indeed.
Hmmm… Not a great day.
Not because Trump was elected, I kinda saw that coming. Hillary wanting to ‘stay the course’ for the country blew her chances.
It’s because of our totally fucked-up presidential primary system.
The 600-day long primary system has to get shortened somehow. Both parties would have to agree.
The caucus system is a joke. The states run a caucus, a combo caucus/primary or all-primary, all on some odd schedule. It seems to me that having maybe three primaries (by time zone?), getting rid of any caucus would work better. More Americans would actually be deciding who wins a primary. There could even be a top-two run-off? Who knows, it just seems to me this could be done, soon.
@Pantheist I always go to ours also. The trouble is that there’s not a great turnout (like a ballot vote would get) and it seems one group calls everyone they can to ‘take over’ the caucus. A person that works on caucus day is out-of-luck.
In Washington State, Republicans used 50% the votes from the caucus & 50% of the votes from the ballot primary.
The Democrats used 100% of the votes from the caucus and none of the votes from the ballot primary.
@daveinwarsh Fair point. In Maine they allow absentee ballots for any/no reason and count them at the caucus with the rest of the votes. Do they not allow that in Washington?
@PlacidPenguin In the stages of grief, asking for impeachment would be stage two, “Anger.” I think the people asking for faithless electors would be “bargaining” at stage 3.
Drumpf broke the system. Let’s see if he brings the change to the establishment he promised or if he will be the puppet he was called on the campaign trail. The next 12 months should give us a good idea.
@narfcake aha i was not seeing the link, thanks! snagged another to add to my collection. i don’t need 1461, i just need enough to span between laundry i’m not a 1% meher, i’m way more mediocre in my savings
Interview with Nate Silver today: q- what surprised you the most about the results? a-Clinton’s complete collapse in the Midwest states. q- Who do you see as (his team) in the presidency? a- If he brings in the Breitbart team, we’re in uncharted country. (we know) he doesn’t like surrounding himself with people who disagree with him.
If the 1 hour interview is available online anywhere, it’s well worth listening to. (They didn’t get to my question about how much of the vote was due to hysterical Luddism.)
@OldCatLady
I gathered the vote was “dedicated Republicans” plus “hate the Clintons” plus “hate the Dems” plus “you didn’t addresss my issues and at at least Trump handed me a slogan” plus “the govt sucks so Fuck You”.
@f00l The interview was scheduled about a week ago, when Hillary was at @85%. Even yesterday, FiveThirtyEight had the odds at 78-22. The actual interview bore no resemblance to what anyone had expected. Instead it was essentially ‘what the actual fuck’, but with statistical and demographic details. TL;DR takeaway was that pollsters have been asking the wrong people, in the wrong languages.
@Kidsandliz Or, again, hope that the electors defy their voters and go against the reasons they were appointed: being lifelong, ‘safe’ members of the party.
@Kidsandliz on some levels I agree with you, on others I don’t. To be honest the popular vote was close enough that this doesn’t really bother me and the benefit of the Electoral College in terms of preventing the major metro areas from running the entire country without regard for more rural areas works. I would like to see more states abandon the all-or-nothing vote assignment, however.
@OldCatLady one theory I heard was that a lot of Trump voters were simply unwilling to admit as much to pollsters. I don’t think the bulk of his supporters were proud to vote for him, they just couldn’t bear to vote for Hillary.
@jbartus Silver’s opinion seems to be that his supporters were very happy indeed to vote for him, and he understands their concerns and their world. Pollsters have simply not been talking to those people. It’s not that they were shy or gave misleading answers- it’s that they didn’t get asked. Pollsters asked people in target-rich environments; they didn’t go to farming communities in NC or TX or OH. It’s no use saying that his supporters voted for him reluctantly, because they didn’t.
@jbartus I thought that too until I saw massive amounts of gloating on on Facebook feed yesterday and today. They voted for him gleefully. I’m so hurt and disillusioned right now.
@jbartus Is there a breakout of what the results would have been if electors were apportioned rather than all or nothing? Suspect it would have been closer but same overall result as Trump pulled strong in the small states whose individual votes counted three or four times as much as mine.
@PurplePawprints There is one ray of hope. Lin-Manuel Miranda appears to find this horrific- and inspiring. Writers and artists wield powerful weapons against prejudice, misogyny and hate. If he can produce another work that is half as powerful as ‘Hamilton’ has been-
/giphy Hamilton
@OldCatLady
What I read today yesterday and today: pollster response used to be 50% or better. Now it’s way less that 10%. And many people just won’t answer their phones at all (me). And all that before you take demographic slices into account.
Pollsters do try to poll in rural and exurban areas. But it’s hard to even get cell phone #'s, let alone get people to answer a call, let along get someone to participate in a poll, let alone get them to tell the truth.
I suspect people who live in red rural and ex-urban areas are particularly chary of pollsters. Those folk are so accustomed to being considered uneducated and unsophisticated by city people or by coastal “elites” that it can become a default attitude for them, tho they are usually ally happy enough to be open and decent to people from different demographics on an individual in person basis.
I suspect that large #'s of “undecideds” weren’t undecided at all. They intended to vote for Trump. And they were angry about their economic prospects, and angry that they likely to be automatically labeled as racists and xenophobes for intending that vote. So many refused to respond to polls, or did not answer honestly. I suspect many of them do not believe they owe any kind of complete honesty to a poll taker.
I did not come close to understanding Clinton’s weaknesses in rust states - did anyone? She never really connected there outside the cities. And when she wanted to campaign in those areas she sent Biden instead of going herself. Combine that with the Foundation and the server and her tendency to close herself off … all this is just my attempt at hindsight, and may be full of shit.
Biden as candidate does extremely well there and might have won the presidency. Possibly Elizabeth Warren could have won. I don’t know how she would play nationally to potentially hostile audiences in many areas.
I - just imho - have always thought Bernie would have stood no chance, any Republican candidate would have given him the full-on Kerry treatment using socialism instead of military service as attack angle. Many people in many diverse areas will simply not vote for a socialist to the degree he has let himself be labeled already, never mind the substance of his ideas. I have seen the polls that indicated he could beat Trump. I never believed they were accurate in general election terms. No one had ever tried to dismember his reputation and nasty-label him at the time those polls were done.
This election shows up major faults in both party nominating systems - the Republicans think they have a base of evangelicals and movement conservatives. They have far more angry rural and angry red-state voters who are happy to rebel from orthodoxy.
The democrats fell prey to the notion that it couldn’t be anyone but Hillary - which may have been true, given Dem politics - but then didn’t fully understand her liabilities, or force her to understand them. And they didn’t have good rust-belt and rural data.
I wonder if the bond between Dems and factory types is broken for good?
I respect Hillary, but she made errors. She has been full bore planning her presidential campaigns for close to twelve years. But during that time she let the Foundation do stuff the right-wing conspiracy types could easily exploit - she did the email server, when she of all people should have understood the political liability - she did the wrong speeches in Wall Street, she should have give speeches she would have wanted to publish instead of the ones she gave - she tried to overcontrol and lost touch with a key demographic. She didn’t know where she wasn’t connecting in key states. And she got bad data from independent polls, just like all of us. But she ran a good campaign. Just not, as we now know, a great one.
I hear that the Clintons are dead politically, and also the Obamas. I hope not. I hope the Clintons re-invent their roles yet again, the Obamas remain a force, and Joe Biden surprises everyone and remains a notable influence.
The polls:
Silver has been quite accurate and increasingly influential for years. Between his bestseller and the 2012 and 2014 elections his image and the image of political polling skyrocketed to near-Kardashian status. And this makes a diff.
A very few years ago he was known to people who consume a lot of political journalism. By this year, half the blue-collar people I know have heard of Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight. If in no other way, they hear about it thru their connected kids.
When polling is that famous and is that big a media obsession, the nature of polling in the mind of the person polled can change. A bit of Heisenberg metaphor about elections and polling perhaps.
When polling was just boring old Gallup from your grandparents’ day, who cared enuf to mess with it? When polling is “cool” and hypertech and yet another tool the “coastal elites” jabber loudly about, and it’s on Google and Facebook daily, and stat nerds are famous names and media personalities, polling is in play as an influencing election and attitude factor in its own right. When a pollster or polling computer calls someone who thinks of themself as a “nobody” or perhaps as a “white rural despised conservative nobody”, fucking with.the polls can become a considerable potential temptation.
A fuck you can be said as easily to the polls and pollsters as to coastal to other “coastal elite” institutions. And with as much pleasure perhaps.
Polls became so famous in their own right that I suspect people have come consider “gaming the polls” as a fair and irresistible game to play.
@f00l Too late to edit previous, so yes, if you sign up on the site to ‘Become a Schwab Live Insider’, you can ‘Watch videos from past Schwab Live broadcasts.’ Since I missed the first few minutes due to site issues, I do want to replay it. Tomorrow. They also have articles etc. YouTube does not have it.
@moondrake …by my math it looks like it may have not been enough to elect either one since Johnson would have had some of the EV votes. So, can you say “run off election…”
@chienfou Cool. That’s really how a multi party system should work. Apportion the votes, determine the two (or potentially three) frontrunners, and have a runoff. happens all the time in local elections where 1 citizen = 1 vote.
@f00l The Schwab site is such a pain that I’d never bothered with it before. However, at that point in time, no podcasts were up, and the upset had other analysts going wubba-wubba-wubba.
@f00l I think Bernie could have made ‘the forgotten’ understand constructive use of their power, and how to vote in their own self-interest. Giving the finger to the oligarchs accomplished nothing, but they understood no alternatives, and resorted to magical thinking.
As for HRC, the straw that broke my back (besides the entitlement, arrogance, hubris, and Bernie) was a local news report from a visit she made to the City Hall in Central Falls, RI. CF is one mile square, the smallest city in RI (maybe the US?), a very poor city of Hispanic immigrants from Central and South America. (Dexter St is like a candy store of restaurants, such good food and nice people! I eat there all the time, just so you know there’s good stuff there and not just sad, poor people. There are optimistic poor people too, but almost everyone is poor and Hispanic - just so you’ve got a visual). Very few people speak English. In the video of the news report, HRC was surrounded by well-dressed white English speaking people, not one local person was shown, if one was even there. It was a carefully curated crowd. Why didn’t/couldn’t she connect with the rust belt? Hell, I still can’t figure out her trip to CF! If I hadn’t been in a store with the TV on I’d have missed it. That did it for me. I work with the Green Party now.
I want everyone who is hurting today to show up at the polls for their local elections every time they’re held, and for the midterm elections in two years as well. Do what you can to support those who will be discriminated against under this coming administration, such as it is.
@Jamileigh17 I vote in every election. My mom was 8 when women got the vote; her mother and grandmother took her with them when they went to the courthouse to register, so she would remember it. I promised her I would, and I’ve asked my daughter to continue the tradition.
it’s interesting to me, that the folks who say they live by the belief of tolerance and acceptance of all other folks beliefs… but it’s only, really, if it match’s their own… folks who differ from their point of views?.. they have no true tolerance or acceptance of…
@mick People can believe what they want, and be judged by their actual actions. But elected officials are all judged by their beliefs, with the understanding that many of the things they believe will become manifest in governance. Most voters this election chose the candidate whose beliefs best reflected theirs of the choices available. It’s disingenuous to suggest that people whose values are radically different than Trump’s are being hypocrites when they express concerns about those values affecting thier day to day lives and in some cases becoming the law of the land.
@caffeine_dude I’d believe it. I remember him polling better against Trump than Clinton during the primaries, and I honestly believe the only reason someone as terrible as Trump could win is because there are large pockets that (for whatever reason) vehemently hate Clinton.
It also would have gotten rid of Trump’s ability to set himself apart as not being a member of establishment politics
@Pantheist Yes. I honestly do believe that the primary system, especially the Democrat primary, was ‘rigged’ to push their candidate through to the general ballot.
But I really think that Bernie, who could be labeled with the “Socialist” tag (as he mentioned numerous times in the 80’s), would have been a target for the Republicans and undecided also.
And… most all mainstream pollsters were pretty much worthless crap for this one.
@daveinwarsh True. My mother-in- law was already complaining about him being a socialist last spring, but I don’t know how indicative her opinion is of the country as a whole since she honestly believes that Clinton is a witch (yeah… the kind with green skin that flies on broomsticks… I’ve got nothing more to say about that) and that Michelle Obama is a man? I still like to imagine Bernie would have won, but you’re right- obviously the polls this election cycle have been unreliable.
@daveinwarsh@Pantheist The head of a major polling organization, Nate Silver, (http://fivethirtyeight.com/) has been very critical of his own polling methodology, in scathing detail. His podcast is worth listening to, and his blog is a great look into how mainstream pollsters have now tossed their processes out the window and started over. Because, gallingly, the T organization’s polls were more accurate.
Some of the worst failures of polling have come about because pollsters, whether deliberately or not, converged on a single view of an election, in what is often referred to as “herding.”
@daveinwarsh
My personal take last spring and now: any Republican, Trump included, could have destroyed him. Possibly Biden or Warren could have won this election.
But I am as capable of being wrong as anyone else.
@OldCatLady
Silver’s org doesn’t poll. It aggregates published polls using a theoretical model-based weighting - not just poll averages. They weight based on poll methodology, history of accuracy, history of “tilt” and other factors. There is a limit to how much the model can “help” the underlying polls - if the polls are not well done - the model can’t really fix them beyond a certain point. And good polling costs a lot of $.
Polls with published results are usually run by news organizations, foundations, and universities.
Silver’s aggregating and weighting methodology needs work, but is better than anyone else’s who is taking the results of an aggregation model public. Silver has no access to any internal campaign or party data, nor does any other public poll aggregator or analyst.
THe Trump campaign did their own polling. But they never released the data, so it doesn’t get into any public model results. Kellyanne Conway is a professional private pollster for conservative interests, among other talents. The Trump org expected to lose on Tuesday according to interviews, but they seemed to have better polling results than anyone except the LA Times.
@Al_Coholic
Ash Carter
Don’t know anything about his ability to function politically within the party or his ability to sel himself to the public.
There are always a few people around govt who are very clean and decent, very intelligent, know the issues, connect to people. But they are administrators. Sometimes they can cross over into “politician”, which is a different animal.
The ideally effective politician is someone like FDR or Reagan. A beautiful campaigner. An effective communicator. A simple enuf public face that we all kinda know who this person is. Strong positive electibility. And strong ability to work their will on Congress and to go around a sticky Congress to appeal to the people.
The ideal administrator is often somewhat less complex and possibly a more intelligent and honest operator. They get things done, but they don’t have to be manipulating Congress and the public all the times.
The best politicians in terms of getting stuff done, including worthy things, are often, tho not always, ruthless dishonest sociopathic assholes. Unfortunately.
@Al_Coholic
My guess: almost all sociopaths in govt do terrible things. Some few do good, at least in certain areas, if they bend their manipulative talents to policies that advance civilized and tolerant values.
LBJ was almost certainly sociopathic. And of course his Vietnam policy destroyed his presidency. However, name another politician in the 1960’s who could have gotten those civil rights bills thru Congress.
I suspect most sociopaths in government are terribly destructive of decency, honesty, fairness, and try to corrupt everything they touch. I am no historian, but suspect that the sociopath who moves the country forward is a rare beast.
They just email blasted the parents and students reminding them that safety pins have been previously banned as weapons and shall not be brought on to school property.
Zero tolerance (expulsion) will apply in instanes of infraction.
The title of my thread should now be amended to:
What.
The.
Actual.
Fuck.
America.
(fer realz?)
I’m tempted to go buy and disperse safety pins along sidewalks.
@jbartus wow - thanks - yup, that link above is as broke as my grandpa used to be on the day after his gov’t check would arrive. (That’s really fucking broke.)
@Pavlov Rent a helicopter using the name of the fool who made this policy. Circle over the school in the dead of night pretending to be a police copter with a spotlight on looking for a criminal on the run. Blanket the place with safety pins.
I talk a good game, but just now on a WalMart run, I decided not to wear a safety pin. This is Florida, and there are two trailer parks between me and the store.
@Pavlov Meh, cash out move to Ketchum and keep your head down. This upside of all of this is there is no longer any global warming or fly ash pond controversy.
@cranky1950 Why, yes! And Russia is good and would never hack our computers (no matter what the actual experts in Intelligence say) and who needs Intelligence briefings, anyway? The President-elect knows more about Russia than the Intel folks and more about ISIS than the military. It’s China that is bad, regardless of the fact that we owe them $1.2 trillion and do masses of business with Chinese companies. I’m thinking of starting a business in fireproof handbaskets, as it appears everyone will need one.
@Pavlov It’s been a month, and I’m still trying to figure out how to cope. I thought for awhile I’d put my time and effort into marches, rallies etc. Then I looked into funding NRDC and its ilk. It all feels as productive as the part in Peter Pan where Tinkerbell could get well again if children believed in fairies. Music helps. So do Samantha Bee, Steven Colbert, and the steadfast refusal of Slate to ‘normalize’ this. I’m still looking for some good grappa. In the interim:
@f00l Oh stop being melodramatic. We’re merely transforming to the pseudo-libertarian lazy fairy economic principles that spawned the great depression and nearly drove the country to communism, killed a bunch of people but made the lifestyles of the rich and famous really cheap. It’s about time the family mansions were taken out of mothballs and the lights shine again. Don’t be such a Debbie downer.
In my never ending quest (well from my perspective) to be a ray of sunshine, , , You all realize that in a few years we’re going to look upon the last 20 years as the goodtimes.
@f00l the problem is there is no structure to the opposition. While the other side complains about the media, they own both sides of the argument and use it accordingly. When Nixxon played the race card and pulled the deploarables who were mererly assholes at that point to the other side. Later leaders of the darkside developed the media strategies to forge them in loyal supplicants that considered themselves to be exerting their freewill to overcome the brainwashed liberal horde that was surely leading them straight to hell. Until these proud rugged individualists end up living in migrant camps and living on handouts again, ain’t nothing gonna change. The Prescott Bush’s of the country have taken over. Look at the Michigan recount and how quickly they acted to suppress it once they were found out.
I grant your argument re the media. Perfect. They do own both sides. And now DT owns them.
The media has been played and played and played. You are right. Since Nixon. Esp since Reagan. Nobody on the media much debates the “meta-debate” and what is a political fact. And the “self-reliant conservative” sticker has become such an automatic badge of virtue and patriotism, like saluting the flag. Altho if those policies were actually put into place, 2/3 of the people who voted for them would be horrified.
the media sux sux sux at economics. And nobody does a public honest evaluation of the Econ options in a world of global economy (we ain’t turning back) and multinational mega-corporations who view humans as assets in the same terms that they might view their on-site inventories, and when legal systems designed for horse-and-buggy days can be infinitely gamed by the wealthy and powerful and the corp interests.
And then DT took the trad, “respectable” Rep party and pwned it. And then pwned us all.
Fwiw George HW Bush is widely known to have voted for HRC. “W” is widely believed not to have voted for DT. They didn’t go public, but they did talk to their friends. They are horrified by Trump, even tho the Rep party set itself up for this.
Whaddaya know. Turns out most of those “red voters” weren’t movement conservatives after all. Who’d uh thunk it?
If the media and then Dems and what centrists still exist don’t figure out a viable approach to the automatic portions and rust belt portions of red America it’s gonna be a long dark night.
@f00l You’re ignoring the fact that the election process is rigged and unless there are grossly extenuating circumstances republican wins are guaranteed. That’s why McCory went so apeshit. He didn’t realize that he was the face of the toll road/ash pit/poisoned well water controversy. HB2 hurt but that alone shouldn’t have been enough to counter act the rural/middleclass republican vote given the degree of gerrymandering.
@f00l We’re also ignoring the fact that a lot of us would have happily voted for McCain or Lincoln Chaffee rather than the bitch that sold out to the Walton’s in the 90’s an help give us “free trade and Globalism”. You have to remember she was raised Republican and does have the proper background.
I live in Texas. I understand “rigged”. However today’s rigged does not begin to approach how really bad it could get. I desperately hope we don’t go that direction.
Remember when the Texas Democrats left the state to stop/protest gerrymandering (to create procedural probs in Austin) and the Republicans had the Texas Rangers hunt them down? Not so long ago. And that has always been the way of the Austin statehouse, among many others.
All politicians have areas where they suck. Or sucked. Most people did not get what globalization would mean, back then. Excepting, famously, Ross Perot among others. But I think even if Perot had managed to become pres, globalization would have still swept the world and humans would still be corporate playthings. Very little diff. Corp Powers continue, unexamined.
There are plenty of reasons to hate/despise any politician that ever breathed. My simple formula nowadays is “who might possibly win. that might be better than the other ones.” Every politician who has ever held power has a longish list of crimes and errors. Sausage making is ugly. No alternative tho.
Re economics: I have seen no serious discussions of economics from national politicians lately, tho I’m not an addict and may have missed stuff. Reps promo fantasy philosophies and fantasy fairness with free market nonsense paradise. And push policies their constituencies do not want, if those voters would stop and think. Dems focus on grievances. Neither approach deals with the topic honestly. Tho sometimes you see an Econ plan that does not suck from someone.
What we need is a charismatic plain-speaking tv-friendly economist type who is not wedded to a doctrine to the point of blindness, and who will speak and sell truth. And a similar pop-culture friendly media deconstruction expert. People perfectly willing to become Trump tweet targets. Fun.
And the media - the Times, the Post CNN (forget Fox) and wherever else - need to find a way to deconstruct Trump while the sumultaneously connecting with the rust belt and “left behind” voters. That’s a tall one. They appear not to have even started with it yet. Still stuck in the mindsets Trump used against them.
@cranky1950 You lost me at “bitch”. I’m interested in informed, reasoned, passionate debate, not name-calling. Otherwise a very interesting conversation, thanks! I feel so disenfranchised that it doesn’t seem to be a very useful investment of my time to be well informed politically, but I love to read discussions among those who are.
@f00l I blame you because I can’t remember the poetry I learned from a USN commander I worked with once upon a time. He could curse in verse, stringing together scatological, profane, vulgar, politically incorrect, and obscene terms into rhymes. He could fit the terminology to the occasion, too. Sigh.
@OldCatLady Bah, it was just a lame reason to go meta. Let it go. Names shmames it’s just a lame attempt to put ones self above the fray. Poor Pharisee wannabes.
@OldCatLady My issue wasn’t with profanity. I’m not a big fan of profanity as written word, despite cursing like a sailor in spoken word. But it isn’t offensive to me, just lazy except when used in its proper role as dramatic emphasis. Name calling almost always bothers me, including all the many nicknames people have assigned to our President Elect, although those often at least show some imagination. But just plain old name calling, especially one tied up in traditional gender (or other) bias, derails my engagement with the conversation and supplants interest with distaste. I don’t want to make a big deal out of it, I just wanted to point out that name calling lowers the tone of the discussion.
@Pavlov Explaining myself, not trying to provoke an argument. It was my perception from other people’s comments that I’d not made my reasoning clear in my original post.
What he said
But can we all agree … as a nation … that together … there is no dispute … that the best part about Cool Whip is that it comes with free Tupperware?
@MehnofLaMehncha And it is still round! Fuck that square margarine shit!
I know, I didn’t want the new Texas Rangers stadium either.
@Moose but it’ll have AC
@Kevin
Useless without DC
Yep, it surprised me too.
/giphy / rural white wins
@Catdad Yeah because they are the only ones who voted…whatever
HAHA FUCK YEAH SCHADENFREUDE FOR LIFE
@DrunkCat
@DrunkCat
@DrunkCat
@Collin1000 Deutschbag.
@Al_Coholic That pretty much sums it up. The DNC did this to themselves and all the crying is hilarious.
There are certain thoughts going through my mind right now which I’m
toopolite to post here.Of course, I didn’t vote for either of the main candidates, so I’m sad that Irk isn’t well.
@PlacidPenguin half vote for trump then
@Pantheist Fuck that bullshit.
Well fuck. I hope the nuclear winter comes quick.
@show_the_maw well that’s one solution to global warming i suppose
Shaddup and pay
@cranky1950
And pay.
And pay.
And then pay some more.
And then …
Current status of Mexican Peso on the world market -
@mehtherfucker Yeah? Dow futures were down 638, last I dared look. We’re all fucked.
http://dowfutures.org/ (live view, for those interested)
@mehtherfucker @Shrdlu @Pavlov
@PlacidPenguin Points vs. Percentage Pedantry: The Dow was around 11,000 on 9/11 and it’s around 18,300 now, so that’s a drop of 5% then vs a drop of 3.7% today. (Besides, it’s just the futures.)
@awk
I know. I just wanted someone else to type that.
@PlacidPenguin That’s just so far. Remember NYSE opens at 9:30 Eastern Time.
@PlacidPenguin given how much money wall street had shoveled into one of the other candidate’s pockets, only to have that candidate not win the expected position to quid pro quo… perhaps the analysts have reason to be depressed.
i need a margarita.
@alacrity I’ve run out of rye and have moved to gin
it is rare that I am forced to change spirits more than once a week.
@alacrity Minus the lime juice. Or Cointreau. Or salt.
Tequila, what we need now is straight up tequila, no screwing around here people.
@alacrity Me too. Cheers!
@Al_Coholic This is so past hard liquor. I’ve moved on to Drano.
@baqui63 Same with me, except pants.
I have devoted much of my life to the campaign since the conventions. I can’t even . . .
@KDemo I’m sorry, that makes it so personal. This year I’ve dealt with physical ailments, minor bur sequential, so didn’t work. A friend just (this evening) discovered her husband doesn’t much care what happens and is not sympathetic to her pain.
All stock market futures trading was halted after the 5% loss triggered the ‘emergency brake’. And the Canadian Immigration website has crashed. Both these things are real. Okay, futures trading has now resumed.
The stock market is overreacting, it’ll come back. I’ll be looking for stocks to buy!
@awk Hell yeah.
@Al_Coholic @awk damn, I expected it to at least take a day. I just passed +1% and we’ve still got hours to go. Might not buy anything after all.
@awk did you mean socks to buy? If so, boy do I have good news…
@hollboll
If you’re implying that socks are a great investment, then congratulations, you just disappointed @narfcake
@Al_Coholic
Trump is so unpredictable, he will give you other stock market moments. Just be ready.
Geez we’re electing Glen Turner president.
Tomorrow (2 PM, EST?) Schwab has a live conversation online with Nate Silver. I had already signed up. It ought to be riveting.
@OldCatLady so was it riveting?
@Kidsandliz It was indeed. Short version: the moderator asked essentially ‘what-the-actual-fuck’ and Silver explained details about what they missed, why they missed it, what the biggest surprises were, and the holes in their sampling. They took selected email questions from people attending, but didn’t get to mine. I wanted to know whether Luddites and their fears about the cyber were a factor. I still do.
@OldCatLady Is there a recording (or better yet, a transcript) of this somewhere?
@baqui63 Yes, the video is available on the Charles Schwab site. If you sign up on the site to ‘Become a Schwab Live Insider’, you can ‘Watch videos from past Schwab Live broadcasts.’ I’m not shilling for them, it was the Nate Silver aspect that interested me. His site, fivethirtyeight.com, has a lengthy article, with video and links, discussing the same things today: ‘Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Drumpf A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else’.
@OldCatLady Thanks. (I figured the video might be available if I signed up, but didn’t want to do so unless it was.)
@OldCatLady
@baqui63
Kinda don’t like the Schwab site at all.
It won’t let you sign up for the Silver interview. Because it’s over. But if you sign up for future events you can the access the past events library.
Ok so the next event is Albright in December. Signed up. Only the site is locked for me because the event is next month. So I can’t get to the Silver stuff. Once they unlock the site for December’s event I will presumably be able to do the Silver stuff. Only I would like to do it now, Schwab fuckers.
If you have a sign in for a past event, I’m guessing that you can also get to the Silver stuff. It’s s really fucked up system. Unless I got lost in it somehow. Mostly I regret wasting an hour messing with the site trying to get in.
However, fivethirtyeight.com has several podcasts. The main podcast covers this. This first show after the 8th was a shellshock show kinda. In the next show they defended their model in some detail. They will prob upload a new podcast Monday.
I also wanna know why the LA Times polls turned out better than others, and why the rust belt polls were very so far off (was it just po’ed voters who lied? Well designed polls do rural polling and weight it), and why about 30% of hispanics voted for Trump, tho I have heard some info on that last question locally.
And then. And then.
I am hearing a lot of massive confusion on the left and right. And center, not that there is one.
Ands Pres Trump pressures things at the personal level. Gotta make choices that are more pointed. Prob needed to do that anyway.
TL;DR if you want info on Silver’s polls, subscribe to the site podcast.
@f00l Ah, another hapless victim sucked into the morass of analytics! Welcome! At this rate we’ll need an initiation rite and a secret tattoo. We already have a motto, attributed to Disraeli by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
@OldCatLady my accountant friends and relatives added
’and accounting’ to that list.
@OldCatLady
You mean stats lie as opposed to words?
Yeah it’s a fascinating addiction
Pls note that Silver’s process was technically not too bad. His ~40% Trump victory result was way way better than any other aggregator’s.
And in his podcasts the team repeatedly warned about and defined “margin of error” and “polling error” and spoke in detail about herding and wishful-thinking adjustment temptations. I know those things, a bit. I let myself not focus on them.
I was shocked and depressed by the results. Because I really really really didn’t want Trump as President, and let emotions and wishful-thinking predominate. And because it was and it difficult for me (on an emotional level) to fully comprehend how people I know and have personal respect for as decent colleagues/family could vote for him.
Let my guard down. The next few days after were tough.
I have never, as an adult, so badly wanted to curl up in my mom’s arms and have her tell me everything is going to be okay.
@katylava /giphy hugs
It’s simple.
/giphy Mad as hell
The polls ignored the working Americans who are fed up with the “system” so no suprise here.
@Mehrocco_Mole I’m sorry, but I think you misspelled a word or two between the phrases “polls ignored” and “so no”… The spelling you might have meant was: “morons who have no idea what idiocy possessed them, or what havoc they have wreaked.”
@Mehrocco_Mole That was my prediction. The ‘never vote’ voted, pollsters ignored the ‘never vote’. My guess is we find out higher turnout on the Republican side. Remember about 1/2 of our country votes in a typical election.
OR Hillary was going to win by a landslide so Dem turnout was low. Most likely a combo of both.
@PhysAssist someone’s salty. (hint, it’s you!)
@PhysAssist That is literally an example of what Mole was referring to. Instead of a discussion, nothing but vilifying and hatred toward anyone who thinks differently. That’s both accepting and progressive…
@caffeine_dude Actually, with the exception of a few of the northern swing states with a lot of union manufacturing jobs, participation was down all around. Trump got fewer total votes than either McCain or Romney (300k-1300k votes respectively.) It’s just that Clinton got WAY fewer votes than either of Obama’s two elections (11 million, 6 million.) The democrats have been losing about 5-6 million votes per presidential election over the last two cycles. The Dem base got complacent or couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton, I guess. Only the third parties beat their totals from 2008 and 2012. Not enough to matter though.
Books I’ve been reading: ‘White Trash, the 400 year Untold History of Class in America’, and Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock trilogy. I just hate it when things come alive out of these books. Actualization, that’s the word. Jameson’s, that the next word.
@OldCatLady As long as it’s not On the Beach.
I’m going right to the everclear!
@PhysAssist I have a half gallon of Stoli plus whiskey, brandy and wines… We should post recipes here, and combine forces to drink them.
@PhysAssist
@OldCatLady @PhysAssist Let me on that gravy train. Choo choo!
Most people are stupid. This is just more evidence.
@ThatsHeadly This thread you mean, yes?
Honetly, I didn’t feel much better about Hilary either. The Walton family wanted NAFTA/ and cheap shit that they could up 90% but still price below good stuff Hummmmmmmmmmmm
@cranky1950 She would be just as bad.
We just had shitty choices this time.
I wanted Marco…
@cranky1950 Did you know Hillary was once on the Walmart board? Hmmmmmmmmmm
@cranky1950 You’re both missing the point.
@cranky1950 Acrtually Hillary would be a better president as she has trained for this ever since she worked for Abdraham Ribicoff. True she’s owned/part of the 1%. The Donald is owned by the Russians and the Chinese, that is why the tax statement were never produced. The guy is a sock puppet.
/giphy soooo depressed
@katylava actual LOL, sustained
@katylava I am unjustifiably unnerved at the number of times I have seen this joke retold incorrectly. The punchline is “Hold my beer.” I’ve seen it as “Check this out” and “Hold my drink” and “Watch this.” It’s so much better, descriptive, and illustrative to say “Hold my beer.”
@JerseyFrank i’ve also seen unfunny versions that have the first part wrong. i can’t remember them though because they weren’t funny.
I’m borrowing this.
I forgot to post this shirt here:
http://shirt.woot.com/offers/we-the-people
@narfcake - Supreme Court.
@narfcake this shirt’s sales are going to skyrocket in the next day or two.
@carl669 they should have been breaking records all election cycle…
Is it time to talk about Texit?
@hollboll
We could have an interesting discussion about Texit…
@hollboll I’m all for it.
@hollboll we haven’t already kicked you guys out?
@hollboll Seriously? Because I’m thinking we’re one state in the Union that’s already done worse.
@joelmw
If the US is going to be Trumpland for a while, a Texit would be Cruzville for a while.
Except that the US Congress appears to be somewhat less corrupt than the one in Austin.
@hollboll How about #Calexit?
http://www.businessinsider.com/calexit-explainer-california-plans-to-secede-2016-11
@lisaviolet I prefer the hashtag #CAdios
@ticklescratch As long as they take LA with them I’m all for it.
@hollboll Not to mention that most of the problems of the 20th and 21st century came from Texas.
@sammydog01
@ticklescratch
Too many people want happy slogans or angry slogans or I’ll fix it slogans or we’re more virtuous than you slogans or something else way too simple.
In my feeble opinion neither party ever deals seriously in campaigns with economic reality.
The Right tends to promise philosophical agendas that are not supported by data, and are theoretically impoverished compared to where the economic theory ought to be. And a less impoverished and less mythical economic theory would blow their purist agenda. And they go on promising that their purism will “make it better”,
The Left tends to promise wide social solutions without considering whether they are affordable.
The various govt departments that deal with commerce are pretty much bought and sold by corporate interests, as are way too many people in Congress. The govt departments that deal in social and human issues are caught politically between the ideologies in power at a given moment.
Politicians promise pretty visions to get votes. They don’t offer any sort of believable path to the achievement of what they promise, and often then don’t intend to. They know those promises aren’t achievable.
People buy into the visions that their fav politician offers. People don’t want hard reality. They don’t want economic reality or geopolitical reality.
The best hope of actually achieving any kind of prosperity that reaches many people may well lie somewhere near the center - the center that we used to have. It involved imuch compromise and working together. It involved getting better and doing better piece by piece over time. Figuring things out to solve problems, not saber rattling or purist philosophy or Dirty Harry impersonations. These are things we used to do.
Too many voters are willing to buy into any lie that makes them feel like there is a magic answer or a magic expression of anger.
@f00l Aye, but do you have any hope that a majority of Americans will ever wise up? I don’t. I only hope for happy accidents after sad accidents.
@f00l You’re correct. (ever think I’d say that?)
That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat. That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat. That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat. That Democrat sucks so let’s elect a Republican. That Republican sucks so let’s elect a Democrat…
This is the message delivered tonight. Washington and the elite establishment has failed the American people. IMHO: America didn’t vote Trump, they didn’t vote Republican. The American people voted to end the cycle.
@InnocuousFarmer
We once feared more for our survival because of the cold war. So people worked together to an extent.
The “greatest generation” went thru the depression together, and then thru World War II together. These (esp the 2nd) gave them a sense they their commonality was far greater than their various differences.
Corporations once treated many (not all) of their employees far better, and were less likely to pillage the economy. So more trust. Employees were willing to be loyal, because that often worked out.
Those discriminated against were willing for the most part to work more within the system than outside it with violence.
There were strong across-society presumptions of the need for public civility. People could be shamed into better public behavior.
We once did not feel that every single company we did business with (excepting meh and a few others) was out to steal from us and abuse us with happy faces.
I have always believed that if this country failed, it would be from within.
Things feel very very dangerous and fragile now. And if our nation fails, or simply fails in leadership, there is no likely 2nd place country on the side of democracy to step up in leadership - economic or philosophical.
We are (to me) not in a good place.
@f00l @InnocuousFarmer @Mehrocco_Mole
Does someone want to tl;dr the conversation?
@PlacidPenguin tl;dr we’re fucked.
@PlacidPenguin @f00l
TL:DR Trump won. The only poll that matters is all but over. Suck it up.
@carl669
I also would have accepted: “words”
@Mehrocco_Mole
Was watching one network (not saying which) explain for about 7 minutes (or that’s what it felt like) that unlike the NY Times, they won’t declare winners for states until all the votes are counted.
Of course, for the last 2 hours, they weren’t saying anything new.
I could have been catching up on Designated Survivor, Lucifer, or watched Finding Dory, Ted 2, or *Ice Age: Collision Course
@PlacidPenguin haha NBC is doing that too. They’re talking like we just found out a meteor is about to hit the earth. It actually got my hopes up that it was true. I was let down when I looked in the nightsky and didn’t see impending doom
@Mehrocco_Mole I’ve heard some Trump supporters refer to him as “political chemotherapy”. I.e. burn the system down and then it can only get better. In theory.
@f00l to meh it could be worse
@carl669 Drink recipe: one shot each of liquor produced by each red state (Utah can provide honey syrup). Serve over ice. Call it the Giant Meteor. Garnish with giant Cheeto.
@f00l
The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn. The Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work and then they get elected and prove it.
P. J. O’Rourke
@Mehrocco_Mole BINGO!!! Both sides are SO corrupt that neither a Republican nor a Democrate was voted in, it was a successful business man that was voted in to be the next POTUS. That expresses Americans feelings BEYOND words could ever begin to form. No more career politicians that are only interested in gaining power and making empty promises instead of concentrating on building America & Americans to be successful & great again! The next 4 yrs should be very interesting to say the least.
@rtjhnstn
Indeed. Love O’Rourke.
@Jolara That is all very nice. In theory.
@awk “political chemotherapy”… yeah in theory is right. Had chemo. Still going to die of my cancer and now other things are fucked up because of it. The problem I see is he will rashly nuke stuff and not think through with what it will be replaced and it may be really hard to undo the damage later. For example wholesale trashing Obama care and guess what. I can’t get insurance because that will ditch the can’t consider pre-existing conditions clause. And he is considering an oil tycoon and Palin to be the Secretary of Interior. Good by wilderness, federal parks and forests. Put, for example, mining in there and you can’t undo that.
@OldCatLady Utah’s got some pretty cool brewing companies too.
@Kidsandliz Check out ChrisBeatCancer.com. I’m not preaching, just thought you might enjoy considering another perspective.
@suewalsh1 Thanks, but I believe in science.
@Kidsandliz That’s cool, didn’t mean to intrude, really.
BTW: @PlacidPenguin it is all your fault!
@Mehrocco_Mole
As @ELUNO and @narfcake could tell you, I’m not the goat this month. I’m the penguin!
/image political penguin
/giphy penguin BBQ
/image penguin BBQ
@Mehrocco_Mole Not @PlacidPenguin’s fault.
/giphy placid penguin
Originally posted on July 21, 2016 -
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/michael-moores-5-reasons-why-trump-will-win
COMPLETE TEXT AT:
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
I don’t much care for Michael Moore lately.
But he hit the nail on the fucking head.
@MrsPavlov I saw that. I dismissed it. Sure, he made sense once, but now he’s obviously lost it, I said. I watched Full Frontal’s Monday show, and brushed off the segment on what happens to political journalists in Russia as hyperbole. Samantha Bee is doing a post-election special tonight, and you’d better believe I’ll be watching.
I’m already looking ahead to the most likely 2020 frontrunner:
@awk Really? If you were offended “to your core” by the bus talk then you really need to see the lyrics to Kanye’s song titled Pussy.
@Mehrocco_Mole
You must’ve confused me with someone else.
@awk
TRIGGER ALERT: I’m using “you guys”
Sorry, I used YOU in the editorial sense of the word. It wasn’t you as in @awk, it was you as in you guys.
@Mehrocco_Mole The proper word for that is “ya’ll”.
@moondrake I’m a yankee who happens to live down south and I did give a trigger alert.
New York Times just declared DT winner.
@Mehrocco_Mole
For a while they were saying that. They just hadn’t updated the numbers.
Meanwhile…
Even Google is already declaring Trump as our next president
Ditto. “What the actual fuck???” is exactly how I’m feeling…
I wonder if he is going to present gold medallions on chains to the cabinet members…
Anyone think Canada needs to build a wall to keep all the whiners out?
Seriously, even if you do not agree with his politics you have to accept that Donald Trump is #45.
Eight years ago (and again four years ago) a man I did not feel was the leader this country needed was elected. But he was elected President. Despite any misgivings I had, any political differences I had, he had/has my respect as the man who leads this country as the President and as the Commander in Chief of our military.
We now must accept, just as Hillary has, the fact Donald Trump is President-elect of The United States of America.
We are Americans first. We must respect the office and the man who was elected by the majority of Americans to be our 45th Pesident.
tl:dr It’s over. Get over it.
@Mehrocco_Mole
Slightly humorous
@PlacidPenguin Love it!
@Mehrocco_Mole
“Get over it” as something for politicians to instruct others to do has been popular for decades or centuries.
“Get over it” as something for one’s self to do has not been popular in the political universe for some time. No more than taking politicians responsibility. Politicians do not, as a rule take responsibility. And they are not, as a rule, anything close to honest.
This doesn’t mean I think they are all equivalent - they are not. Despite my having misjudged many of them because I judged them on ideology, and the ones I disagreed with often did better that I had conceived; and the ones who reflected my beliefs often did far worse.
Despite all that, most people do get over things, and most of us here will get over things, without any need for prompting; even terrible things; and go forward.
Or live to fight another day; or find another cause to champion; or find a cause for hope; or turn inward; or just soldier on. I hope I and those close to me will find whatever it takes in good times and bad.
@Mehrocco_Mole Canada is too smart to build a wall as they have the good sense to know that it is easier to destroy than to build. As I fear we are about to see on a less literal fashion in our political system. Yes, the government is deeply flawed and rotten to the core. But I can’t name any large country with a better one. It astounds me that the majority of my fellow countrymen are in favor of burning it down and replacing it with what? The builder they have chosen is so bald faced greedy Gordon Gekko would be embarassed in his company. His ideology is “fuck anyone dumb enough to do business with me, as long as I come out ahead I am a winner”. I can’t conceive how anyone could think a rebuild by someone with that mentality could possibly benefit the average American. The fox has been hired to renovate the henhouse, and it was the hens that hired him.
@Mehrocco_Mole
I’ll show President Drumpf the same kind of respect that he’s shown President Obama, Mexicans, women, blacks, the disabled, the poor, the media, the truth. In other words, I will mock, oppose and undermine him at every opportunity, probably generally with more purpose than motivates him, but also just for fun.
No, I don’t respect this country–not above reason or compassion. And I certainly don’t believe that its institutions or offices deserve any more respect than humanity or human dignity and decency. I have absolutely no respect for Donald Drumpf. He’s done worse than failing to earn it; he’s actively campaigned to lose it.
Finally, “get over it” is what white straight men have been telling women, blacks, gays et al. for generations. It’s what “job creators” tell their wage slaves. It’s what any abuser or privileged class tells those who question that privilege or cry out against abuse. We won’t get over it.
And you may in fact be too ignorant to know this, but a quadrennial election isn’t the only means that citizens have to engage politically. It’s not over.
@joelmw
One thing has become abundantly clear in this election and is reflected in your comments: liberals are far more intolerant of those who don’t agree with them than those they accuse of being intolerant. And then they hurl insults and start name calling. Wow.
Even Obama stated that Trump won and will receive the respect due to the next President of the United States. The same respect shown him during the Bush/Obama transition. A smooth transition and with full cooperation. When the Clinton’s left the White House they took furniture (which they had to return) and all the W caps from the keyboards.
So allow me to expand on my comment: Get over it and grow the fuck up!
As this is fast becoming a flame war I will have no further comments on this subject. You do what you think necessary.
Except this:
@Mehrocco_Mole Not to get into this too much, but the intolerant/butthurts/insult name callers are on both camps. Just like you. You name called on your first post… So I don’t see why you are getting so worked up about…
@Mehrocco_Mole People have a right to grieve. It is valid to be upset and concerned when a candidate you strongly distrust has been elected to the highest office. So FUCK YOU and your FUCKING INSENSITIVE command that everyone just “Get over it,” less than 24 hours after the results they found so devestating came in. If we believe anything Trump said throughout his campaign, many people in this country have legitimate reasons to believe that their well-being has been threatened by these results.
And, for what it’s worth you now have the distinction of being, I believe, the first person I’ve ever told “fuck you”. Way to go, buddy!
@Mehrocco_Mole Uhhhhhh when did the Repubs “get over” the election of President Obama? Either of them actually (both of which he won with over 50% of the popular vote unlike the Cheeto stain you just can’t wash out)? You didn’t. The house and senate refused to work with him and uneducated white males complained about him for 8 years. Now it’s the Dems turn to repay the favor. You wanted Cheeto Jesus, now you have to deal with the majority of Americans counting down the days until he’s impeached for being found guilty in the rape of a minor and fraud charges he goes on trial for in the next few weeks.
@christinewas While I appreciate the offer for sex I’m going to have to decline. Sorry.
@Mehrocco_Mole Where did I engage in name-calling or flaming?
I’ll be waiting for your response.
I’ll match every one of my comments on this thread against yours in terms of its substance-to-bullshit and substance-to-“name-calling.” Moreover, at least I had the decency to actually respond to your comment, instead of just piling on more insults.
Please, if you have reasoned objections to what I said, I’d be happy to hear them, paragraph by paragraph. Show me how much better you are than me, buddy. I’m ready to take my medicine.
@Mehrocco_Mole I’m okay with keeping the same level of “working together” and “unity” as we’ve had for the last eight years.
Why change now? What’s so different?
@lisaviolet There really is none. I may be showing my age but this reaction to President-elect Trump is reminiscent of when Reagan was elected. The doom-sayers came out of the woodwork. “How could we elect an actor to the office of the POTUS?” But like him or not he was an effective President.
The only point I’m trying to make here is the election is over. Trump won. Let’s move on.
@joelmw Earlier I stated I’m done, I’ve had my say. But apparently we’re still in middle school and I’m being called out. OKay. (I will admit that was a bit too snarky but I couldn’t resist)
I never said you were flaming; I said it was fast becoming a flame war. And it was being fed from all sides including me. I have no desire to participate in a flame war so as stated earlier, I’m done… almost.
It’s President-elect Trump not President Drumpf. That is name calling by its very definition. If you can’t show respect for the man at least try to show respect for the office. It’s part of the healing process.
Calling me ignorant because my views are different than yours is a bit intolerant and again name calling. And it was getting personal.
Substance-to-bullshit. What bullshit? Again the only point I am trying to make here is the election is over. Trump won. Let’s move on.
Show me how much better you are than me. Nope. Not going there. I don’t know you. You don’t know me. You’ve done right by me in the past so I have no intentions of taking anything outside of this thread.
@christinewas I apologize for my snarky reply: I’m pretty sure you were not offering sex. I over-reacted to what I considered was your over-reaction.
At no time did I say your feelings, beliefs, or reactions were not valid. Nor did I put a time frame on anything. To me get over it means to let it go. It’s a done deal. Step back, regroup, and figure out where you are going next.
Back in the 60’s we marched against Viet Nam. We burned bras and draft cards. Put flowers in gun barrels and got arrested for our cause. We pumped our fists to show support and never trusted anyone over 30. Mostly to no avail and without validation. But we learned something. If you want to change the system you hate you must become the system to make changes from within. That is where the Clinton’s came from. The difference between the Clinton’s and I is we got to today via different paths. I lived through the Clinton presidency. Followed his impeachment and exoneration. So I have my reasons for not trusting the Clinton family as a whole. My feelings and beliefs are just as valid as yours. I wish you well and hope you can overcome your grief.
And finally @jchatman. Cheeto stain? Cheeto Jesus? Uneducated white males? Again with the name calling? Did you know that 49% of the educated white male voted for President-elect Trump? And per Roper 93% of the African-American vote went to President Obama in 2012? I say so what? All of these people voted in a manner they felt was best for them. That’s how it works.
And just where did I say or imply I didn’t get over it?
To all: First and foremost I am not a Republican. As a matter of fact I’m registered as an Independent. The last time (prior to this election) I voted for a Republican was when I voted for Reagan. If I had to pick a political party I think I identify more as a Libertarian than anything else. But I am a flag waving, veteran of the military, proud to be American first and foremost.
tl:dr I am so over this!
@Mehrocco_Mole Although neither Trump nor his father ever bore the surname Drumpf, it is in fact his German family name. Whether or not Trump’s grandfather anglicized the name at some point remains unclear although most scholars now agree it was most likely changed sometime between 1885 and 1892, most likely due to the prevailing prejudice against Germans in the United States during that time period.
@Pavlov Interesting. I didn’t know that. There were a lot of people who americanized their name during that era. Schmidt to Smith for example. BTW: Ellis Island changing names was a myth.
But we don’t use Barry Soetoro, William J. Blythe III, or Leslie King Jr. when referring to Presidents Barack Obama, William J. Clinton, or Gerald Ford. These were the names they were born with. (President Obama’s is fuzzy because he was born Barack H. Obama. Soetoro was his step-dad. Barry Soetoro was what his Mom called him for years.)
Over the past 8 years Barry was used by some to refer to President Obama in a derisive way. Much the same way Drumpf is being used now. It was disrespectful toward President Obama. It is disrespectful to President-elect Trump.
[edited for my poor grammar]
@Mehrocco_Mole IME, with many that use Drumpf, it resonates within them no more than calling a Shriver a Kennedy (which admittedly can be used derogatorily). Personally, I wouldn’t label the use name-calling. That doesn’t mean however that I can’t see your point. I just had a feeling you may have been unaware of the origin. In your example, both Clinton and Ford’s names were legally changed. Interestingly, there is no documentation provided or found (yet) that reflects a legal name change away from Drumpf, aside from it being legally recognized.
@Mehrocco_Mole Did you call people out when they called President Obama “Obummer” or “Barrack Inseinn O’bowdown”? How about “Gaybama” or “Teleprompter Jesus”? I’m willing to bet you laughed and came up with your own personal nicknames for the President of the United States who won the election with over 50% of the popular vote. Twice. You should ask that your picture be added next to hypocrite in the dictionary. And if you want “healing” may I refer you the great words of Harry Reid:
“If this is going to be a time of healing, we must first put the responsibility for healing where it belongs: at the feet of Donald Trump, a sexual predator who lost the popular vote and fueled his campaign with bigotry and hate. Winning the electoral college does not absolve Trump of the grave sins he committed against millions of Americans. Donald Trump may not possess the capacity to assuage those fears, but he owes it to this nation to try. If Trump wants to roll back the tide of hate he unleashed, he has a tremendous amount of work to do and he must begin immediately.”
And if you want to know where the protesting Americans got the idea to protest, look no further than the republican party.
@jchatman That’s not my Joe Walsh . . .
@Mehrocco_Mole Cute comic strip. Where as the president-elect said “The election is rigged!!! … Unless I win”. The doublespeak of the orange one in real time, said loudly and often, vs a comic strip? Yeah, I’ll leave Archie News to you and stick with what’s really happening in front of me. But keep us posted on Jughead, will ya? I sometimes wonder about that guy.
@Pavlov He may not be yours, but he’s someones.
@Mehrocco_Mole
So what? Seriously, so what? I have no respect for Mr. Trump. In fact, I called him an orangutan under my breath after I met him and then it immediately dawned upon me that I was disparaging apes. I regret I didn’t say MORE to him directly then I did regarding my personal contempt for his platform and rhetoric. Suffice it to say, he got an earful. I’m not at all shy and I will tell you to your face when I think you’re an idiot. And, I have even less respect for many of the people Trump chooses to surround himself with. That being said, I have EVERY respect for the office of the President. Showing disrespect or even disdain for the presumptive inaugurate as a person versus the office they may one day hold are two very different things in my opinion. And although I am acutely aware that neither is requisite, it is my personal feeling that the office should be respected - knowing there are some whom do not share my view and understanding that is their right.
Based on these results, there was some talk about drinking earlier. How about a new thread on what to drink on a daily basis now?
Besides, I haven’t had much experience with alcohol but now seems like a great time to start.
:finishes bottle of Bud Light:
@JT954 I had a bottle of Asti Spumanti chilled last night. Today I might drink it with orange juice and binge watch NetFlix.
Please please please remember this 4 years from now: The independent votes could have swung this election in either direction.
I wholeheartedly agree with needing another serious option or two, but it was too little, too late this year. I personally really wanted a third party until I carefully calculated that third parties were not having enough of an impact on major states and could not appeal to the bulk of voters.
Consider that in this election, voters using their ballots for a major third party may have changed the outcome of: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin, (+ more), enough to change the election. Votes for Gary Johnson alone could have changed the entire election if they had been used instead for one of the two major candidates.
If you voted for Harambe, screw you.
Disagree? How come?
@placeholder I will personally hold responsible all those who voted for the terminally silly Johnson.
@placeholder you have no idea who people would have voted for if not Johnson. I suspect we “stole” more Trump than Clinton votes. But more than that, i suspect many would simply not have voted, or have written something in. Major party voters need to stop pretending they know what alternate party voters are thinking. We are very different from you. You cannot fathom it.
Your personal vote does not need to be a strategy game. Vote your damn conscience, even if that means writing someone in. The two dominant parties will not change until enough people get the courage to stop playing their game. Every election, no matter what.
The only people at fault are the ones who voted for Trump despite their misgivings. Johnson was a much better choice for them.
@katylava You seem to be taking my comment very personally. I’m not assuming anything about anyone’s personal party affiliations, so please read and consider my message again. I am trying to make a point that the independent votes could have a greater impact on the overall election result than some people make them out to be, regardless of which candidate you are voting for. I do not begrudge you wanting to vote for an independent candidate (as I said, i almost did myself), but just to consider next election cycle that there are sometimes bigger fish to fry.
Next election cycle, I will root for whoever I agree with. I will campaign and urge others to consider their side. If, however, that candidate has weak polling and does not make it to any debates, I will once again reevaluate my choices.
Please also consider that this isn’t just about the presidency, it is about setting the right people in the Supreme Court that coincide with your beliefs. These appointments are for life, so if you do not have a say in the overall election by the alignment of your vote, your choice can have a much broader impact.
@placeholder Sorry about that. I’ve been hearing a lot of hate for 3rd party voters today, and assumed yours was in the same vein.
While you do make a good point, I still disagree. If you want to think about the bigger bigger picture when you vote, then these parties need to change, and the best way to do that is to vote for someone else. Strong partisanship is part of why we end up with less thoughtful justices.
Personally, I’m not going to let polling influence my vote, because I strongly believe you should vote for who you think is best, not against who you think is worse. I just don’t see how it could ever be good to vote against instead of for, except maybe maybe in the short term, if you’re lucky.
But then, I’m a dues-paying, card-carrying, capital-L Libertarian, so obvs I will continue to vote as such until I no longer agree with the party platform.
@katylava perfectly said, and hello fellow libertarian.
@katylava I understand your point. While we may respectfully disagree with each other on voting, I’m happy for this civil debate about it. Hopefully together we can make some change in the next election (which it seems we both want)! Cheers!
@Ignorant , @katylava. Absolutely. If everyone had believed the polls HC would be were DT is now… and we would still be equally screwed.
Until we as a country come to accept the fact that there IS a Libertarian party and it does have a platform and ideals that make sense the last few election cycles will continue ad nauseum…
@chienfou The Libertarian candidate, Johnson, was simply not electable. If the party can find someone who knows where Aleppo is and who can resist constant clowning during interviews, they will be a viable choice in 2020.
@OldCatLady like Trump?
@placeholder I voted straight Green because those are my values. The Democrats may not be quite as bad as the Republicans, but they–and especially the Clintons–are full-time employees (and, hell, members) of the plutocracy. Hillary is light years better than Drumpf on numerous issues, but that’s only because he’s so horribly horribly bad.
And if Hillary and her supporters hadn’t done such a fine job of lying about, dismissing, shaming, condescending to and otherwise alienating the Left, I’m pretty sure they would have won this goddamned election with ease. This loss is on them. And that all they can do at this point is cast blame on folks who might have been their allies but didn’t fall in line for the abuse speaks volumes about their integrity and credibility.
I honestly don’t have the heart for this ridiculous argument right now. Briefly, as long as folks keep accepting and voting for the status quo (which, btw, includes that asshole Drumpf), the status quo is all they’re going to get. I’m done with it.
@placeholder What are you talking about? The independents vote affected absolutely nothing.
@OldCatLady You’re welcome to it, even if it’s not the slightest bit a rational position. Especially since a lot of those voters were in states where it didn’t affect the election one bit. In fact, the only rational vote in states like California where one party always wins unless it’s a bloodbath is to vote third party. Otherwise your vote is completely meaningless.
I see 41 stars for the original post. Is that a new record?
@JT954 Not even close, but I’m too sleep deprived to go back and look it up.
NC’s Transportation Bond passed. That’s all I care about. The presidential circus changes nothing.
@RedHot yes but did McRory get re-elected or not? That’s all I’m interested in out of NC.
@jbartus it’s not looking good for him http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/north-carolina-governor-mccrory-cooper
@skiptomystew I’m hopeful
@jbartus Hopefully not, we won’t know for a while still. I’m crossing my fingers he just gives up.
It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood…
@lseeber
@lseeber sorry. i couldn’t help myself.
@carl669 haha… no prob. I remember doing that Thumbkin thingy in kindergarten.
Now that marijuana is legal and trump is president, i feel like REM its the end of the world as we know it and i feel fine.
@connorbush that’s exactly the song i was singing this morning when thinking about the election
@katylava Me too!
I demand an investigation into Meh voting fraud! @narfcake 's 46363+ likes are skewing the system!
/giphy too many stars
@placeholder I haven’t been clicking as much as I used to. My ratio used to be higher.
(Hi, @f00l!)
@narfcake
<sad smile>
@f00l I accidentally clicked on your profile before. Then I went to make coffee. Came back a few minutes later – STILL LOADING!
@narfcake
Weird. The @f00l s profile loaded relatively fast for me.
@PlacidPenguin That’s because you’re the
goatpenguin of the month.It may also have to do with the device; this was on an older AMD-A6 desktop running W7P and Chrome. On my Windows Phones, the profile pages lazy load pretty quickly. On my Android phone … forget it.
@narfcake
Nexus 5X, so…
@PlacidPenguin And how many catshirts did that cost you? My phone was less than a daily catshirtwoot on AA w/shipping …
@narfcake
I don’t calculate prices catshirts…
@PlacidPenguin If only there was a scape
goatpenguin to blame for you not knowing …Besides, this write up on a catshirt says that in the future, cat shirts are the new currency.
@narfcake
Shame there’s no scapenguin
/giphy lack of scapenguin
@PlacidPenguin
/image penguin goat
@narfcake
/giphy penguin nibbling on goat ear
@placeholder
As of 10 seconds ago,
@narfcake - 46503 stars given, 227 to himself
@f00l - 67381 stars given, 117 to himself
@PlacidPenguin
you managed to load my profile on a 5x?
Rooted or not?
Which browser?
@f00l
Yes
Stock, unrooted 7.1.1 Developer Preview
Chrome stable
@f00l
Wow, Now on Tap has a big black bar where nav keys are.
I like that it removes notification icons, but to show black bar on bottom…
@PlacidPenguin
How do you get the dev preview? Have a Nexus 6.
@f00l
Here
@f00l
Did you end up registering for it?
@PlacidPenguin
Busy week. Not yet. Need to clear out some free time. Way too much to do.
Was is @Riotdemin who simplified and de-cluttered? Or someone else? I need to do that bad.
@f00l
Ask @RiotDemon maybe.
@f00l wasn’t me.
@RiotDemon
&PlacidPenguin
I seem to remember someone who de-cluttered? Perhaps @HemlockTea?
@f00l
I can remember old posts made on the forum, I just generally can’t remember who says it, when it was said, and which thread has it.
@f00l I’m in the process of that big time. But I am talking about physical clutter, not sure that’s what you meant.
What does it say about me that this was the first place I came to this morning for info/reaction after watching the 0200 CST speech from DT and crew… and then immediately going to bed.
@chienfou you’re one of us.
My stocks are up today!
My wife woke me up @ 5:30 this morning telling me Trump won. I’m not going to have a good day or the next 4 years.
@gustador My hope and sincere belief is that he won’t last a year; I’d put it at three months (though that may only be the beginning of impeachment proceedings. On the other hand, Pence is no prize either. What the fuck indeed.
@joelmw Pence might be a reason to keep dump in there…
I made the mistake of believing we’re better than this.
The only faint, unlikely hope, is that on Dec. 19, the Electoral College will correct this travesty. Nah, not going to happen.
@OldCatLady “down THAT path lies total chaos…”
@chienfou As opposed to?
@OldCatLady
Hence this petition
Hmmm… Not a great day.
Not because Trump was elected, I kinda saw that coming. Hillary wanting to ‘stay the course’ for the country blew her chances.
It’s because of our totally fucked-up presidential primary system.
The 600-day long primary system has to get shortened somehow. Both parties would have to agree.
The caucus system is a joke. The states run a caucus, a combo caucus/primary or all-primary, all on some odd schedule. It seems to me that having maybe three primaries (by time zone?), getting rid of any caucus would work better. More Americans would actually be deciding who wins a primary. There could even be a top-two run-off? Who knows, it just seems to me this could be done, soon.
@daveinwarsh
It’s interesting you say that.
A petition somebody created
Of course, there are already petitions to impeach Trump, so…
@PlacidPenguin I had heard of both my ideas before. I’d just like to see something done about this system finally.
@daveinwarsh I went to my first caucus this year- I actually liked it.
@Pantheist I always go to ours also. The trouble is that there’s not a great turnout (like a ballot vote would get) and it seems one group calls everyone they can to ‘take over’ the caucus. A person that works on caucus day is out-of-luck.
In Washington State, Republicans used 50% the votes from the caucus & 50% of the votes from the ballot primary.
The Democrats used 100% of the votes from the caucus and none of the votes from the ballot primary.
@daveinwarsh Fair point. In Maine they allow absentee ballots for any/no reason and count them at the caucus with the rest of the votes. Do they not allow that in Washington?
@Pantheist If there was a way to do that, it wasn’t mentioned anywhere.
@PlacidPenguin In the stages of grief, asking for impeachment would be stage two, “Anger.” I think the people asking for faithless electors would be “bargaining” at stage 3.
@daveinwarsh My state just voted to do away with its caucus and include unaffiliated voters in our primaries.
Musk is right, it’s all a simulation and when I waken from nap Howdy will be on.
Drumpf broke the system. Let’s see if he brings the change to the establishment he promised or if he will be the puppet he was called on the campaign trail. The next 12 months should give us a good idea.
I need enough MEH shirts to wear for 4 years…when is the next sale?
@vampje GMTA. I’ve got mine lined up, and just ordered the WTPASS.
@vampje sale? just go buy them from the mediocre site. i just bought one last week to replace the purple one i gave away.
@vampje No need to wait:
@snapster will thank you if you’re going to make good on buying 1,461 shirts.
@narfcake aha i was not seeing the link, thanks! snagged another to add to my collection. i don’t need 1461, i just need enough to span between laundry
i’m not a 1% meher, i’m way more mediocre in my savings
@narfcake thanks for posting the link. i was far too lazy today to go find it.
I’m just leaving this here as a general reminder.
Mediocre rules
Interview with Nate Silver today: q- what surprised you the most about the results? a-Clinton’s complete collapse in the Midwest states. q- Who do you see as (his team) in the presidency? a- If he brings in the Breitbart team, we’re in uncharted country. (we know) he doesn’t like surrounding himself with people who disagree with him.
If the 1 hour interview is available online anywhere, it’s well worth listening to. (They didn’t get to my question about how much of the vote was due to hysterical Luddism.)
@OldCatLady
I gathered the vote was “dedicated Republicans” plus “hate the Clintons” plus “hate the Dems” plus “you didn’t addresss my issues and at at least Trump handed me a slogan” plus “the govt sucks so Fuck You”.
@f00l Well Clinton did win the popular vote. We need to trash the electoral college.
@f00l The interview was scheduled about a week ago, when Hillary was at @85%. Even yesterday, FiveThirtyEight had the odds at 78-22. The actual interview bore no resemblance to what anyone had expected. Instead it was essentially ‘what the actual fuck’, but with statistical and demographic details. TL;DR takeaway was that pollsters have been asking the wrong people, in the wrong languages.
@Kidsandliz Or, again, hope that the electors defy their voters and go against the reasons they were appointed: being lifelong, ‘safe’ members of the party.
@Kidsandliz on some levels I agree with you, on others I don’t. To be honest the popular vote was close enough that this doesn’t really bother me and the benefit of the Electoral College in terms of preventing the major metro areas from running the entire country without regard for more rural areas works. I would like to see more states abandon the all-or-nothing vote assignment, however.
@OldCatLady one theory I heard was that a lot of Trump voters were simply unwilling to admit as much to pollsters. I don’t think the bulk of his supporters were proud to vote for him, they just couldn’t bear to vote for Hillary.
@jbartus Silver’s opinion seems to be that his supporters were very happy indeed to vote for him, and he understands their concerns and their world. Pollsters have simply not been talking to those people. It’s not that they were shy or gave misleading answers- it’s that they didn’t get asked. Pollsters asked people in target-rich environments; they didn’t go to farming communities in NC or TX or OH. It’s no use saying that his supporters voted for him reluctantly, because they didn’t.
@jbartus I thought that too until I saw massive amounts of gloating on on Facebook feed yesterday and today. They voted for him gleefully. I’m so hurt and disillusioned right now.
@jbartus Is there a breakout of what the results would have been if electors were apportioned rather than all or nothing? Suspect it would have been closer but same overall result as Trump pulled strong in the small states whose individual votes counted three or four times as much as mine.
@f00l You left off the Never a Woman demo.
@PurplePawprints There is one ray of hope. Lin-Manuel Miranda appears to find this horrific- and inspiring. Writers and artists wield powerful weapons against prejudice, misogyny and hate. If he can produce another work that is half as powerful as ‘Hamilton’ has been-
/giphy Hamilton
@OldCatLady
What I read today yesterday and today: pollster response used to be 50% or better. Now it’s way less that 10%. And many people just won’t answer their phones at all (me). And all that before you take demographic slices into account.
Pollsters do try to poll in rural and exurban areas. But it’s hard to even get cell phone #'s, let alone get people to answer a call, let along get someone to participate in a poll, let alone get them to tell the truth.
I suspect people who live in red rural and ex-urban areas are particularly chary of pollsters. Those folk are so accustomed to being considered uneducated and unsophisticated by city people or by coastal “elites” that it can become a default attitude for them, tho they are usually ally happy enough to be open and decent to people from different demographics on an individual in person basis.
I suspect that large #'s of “undecideds” weren’t undecided at all. They intended to vote for Trump. And they were angry about their economic prospects, and angry that they likely to be automatically labeled as racists and xenophobes for intending that vote. So many refused to respond to polls, or did not answer honestly. I suspect many of them do not believe they owe any kind of complete honesty to a poll taker.
I did not come close to understanding Clinton’s weaknesses in rust states - did anyone? She never really connected there outside the cities. And when she wanted to campaign in those areas she sent Biden instead of going herself. Combine that with the Foundation and the server and her tendency to close herself off … all this is just my attempt at hindsight, and may be full of shit.
Biden as candidate does extremely well there and might have won the presidency. Possibly Elizabeth Warren could have won. I don’t know how she would play nationally to potentially hostile audiences in many areas.
I - just imho - have always thought Bernie would have stood no chance, any Republican candidate would have given him the full-on Kerry treatment using socialism instead of military service as attack angle. Many people in many diverse areas will simply not vote for a socialist to the degree he has let himself be labeled already, never mind the substance of his ideas. I have seen the polls that indicated he could beat Trump. I never believed they were accurate in general election terms. No one had ever tried to dismember his reputation and nasty-label him at the time those polls were done.
This election shows up major faults in both party nominating systems - the Republicans think they have a base of evangelicals and movement conservatives. They have far more angry rural and angry red-state voters who are happy to rebel from orthodoxy.
The democrats fell prey to the notion that it couldn’t be anyone but Hillary - which may have been true, given Dem politics - but then didn’t fully understand her liabilities, or force her to understand them. And they didn’t have good rust-belt and rural data.
I wonder if the bond between Dems and factory types is broken for good?
I respect Hillary, but she made errors. She has been full bore planning her presidential campaigns for close to twelve years. But during that time she let the Foundation do stuff the right-wing conspiracy types could easily exploit - she did the email server, when she of all people should have understood the political liability - she did the wrong speeches in Wall Street, she should have give speeches she would have wanted to publish instead of the ones she gave - she tried to overcontrol and lost touch with a key demographic. She didn’t know where she wasn’t connecting in key states. And she got bad data from independent polls, just like all of us. But she ran a good campaign. Just not, as we now know, a great one.
I hear that the Clintons are dead politically, and also the Obamas. I hope not. I hope the Clintons re-invent their roles yet again, the Obamas remain a force, and Joe Biden surprises everyone and remains a notable influence.
The polls:
Silver has been quite accurate and increasingly influential for years. Between his bestseller and the 2012 and 2014 elections his image and the image of political polling skyrocketed to near-Kardashian status. And this makes a diff.
A very few years ago he was known to people who consume a lot of political journalism. By this year, half the blue-collar people I know have heard of Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight. If in no other way, they hear about it thru their connected kids.
When polling is that famous and is that big a media obsession, the nature of polling in the mind of the person polled can change. A bit of Heisenberg metaphor about elections and polling perhaps.
When polling was just boring old Gallup from your grandparents’ day, who cared enuf to mess with it? When polling is “cool” and hypertech and yet another tool the “coastal elites” jabber loudly about, and it’s on Google and Facebook daily, and stat nerds are famous names and media personalities, polling is in play as an influencing election and attitude factor in its own right. When a pollster or polling computer calls someone who thinks of themself as a “nobody” or perhaps as a “white rural despised conservative nobody”, fucking with.the polls can become a considerable potential temptation.
A fuck you can be said as easily to the polls and pollsters as to coastal to other “coastal elite” institutions. And with as much pleasure perhaps.
Polls became so famous in their own right that I suspect people have come consider “gaming the polls” as a fair and irresistible game to play.
@OldCatLady
Also did you ever figure out where the Silver interview was online? Who did the interview?
@f00l It was conducted by Charles Schwab; you can sign up to attend future events here. Don’t know whether you need an account. I’m still looking for a full video of the event; clips are available on the site.
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/active_trader/trading_insights/schwablive/answers
@f00l Too late to edit previous, so yes, if you sign up on the site to ‘Become a Schwab Live Insider’, you can ‘Watch videos from past Schwab Live broadcasts.’ Since I missed the first few minutes due to site issues, I do want to replay it. Tomorrow. They also have articles etc. YouTube does not have it.
@OldCatLady
Much thx
@OldCatLady there are plenty of people who voted for him who were quite reluctant to do so. Any claim to the contrary is nonsense.
@OldCatLady
The Schwab site is a pain. Silver and others cover this in the fivethirtyeight.com site and podcast.
@moondrake …by my math it looks like it may have not been enough to elect either one since Johnson would have had some of the EV votes. So, can you say “run off election…”
@chienfou Cool. That’s really how a multi party system should work. Apportion the votes, determine the two (or potentially three) frontrunners, and have a runoff. happens all the time in local elections where 1 citizen = 1 vote.
@f00l The Schwab site is such a pain that I’d never bothered with it before. However, at that point in time, no podcasts were up, and the upset had other analysts going wubba-wubba-wubba.
@f00l I think Bernie could have made ‘the forgotten’ understand constructive use of their power, and how to vote in their own self-interest. Giving the finger to the oligarchs accomplished nothing, but they understood no alternatives, and resorted to magical thinking.
As for HRC, the straw that broke my back (besides the entitlement, arrogance, hubris, and Bernie) was a local news report from a visit she made to the City Hall in Central Falls, RI. CF is one mile square, the smallest city in RI (maybe the US?), a very poor city of Hispanic immigrants from Central and South America. (Dexter St is like a candy store of restaurants, such good food and nice people! I eat there all the time, just so you know there’s good stuff there and not just sad, poor people. There are optimistic poor people too, but almost everyone is poor and Hispanic - just so you’ve got a visual). Very few people speak English. In the video of the news report, HRC was surrounded by well-dressed white English speaking people, not one local person was shown, if one was even there. It was a carefully curated crowd. Why didn’t/couldn’t she connect with the rust belt? Hell, I still can’t figure out her trip to CF! If I hadn’t been in a store with the TV on I’d have missed it. That did it for me. I work with the Green Party now.
I want everyone who is hurting today to show up at the polls for their local elections every time they’re held, and for the midterm elections in two years as well. Do what you can to support those who will be discriminated against under this coming administration, such as it is.
@Jamileigh17 I vote in absolutely every election. Being a conservative in Washington State usually makes my vote worthless, but I persevere.
@Jamileigh17 I vote in every election. My mom was 8 when women got the vote; her mother and grandmother took her with them when they went to the courthouse to register, so she would remember it. I promised her I would, and I’ve asked my daughter to continue the tradition.
it’s interesting to me, that the folks who say they live by the belief of tolerance and acceptance of all other folks beliefs… but it’s only, really, if it match’s their own… folks who differ from their point of views?.. they have no true tolerance or acceptance of…
@mick People can believe what they want, and be judged by their actual actions. But elected officials are all judged by their beliefs, with the understanding that many of the things they believe will become manifest in governance. Most voters this election chose the candidate whose beliefs best reflected theirs of the choices available. It’s disingenuous to suggest that people whose values are radically different than Trump’s are being hypocrites when they express concerns about those values affecting thier day to day lives and in some cases becoming the law of the land.
I have not done my own research yet, but the internet is saying. That because the Democrat primary was rigged against Sanders we got President Trump.
@caffeine_dude I’d believe it. I remember him polling better against Trump than Clinton during the primaries, and I honestly believe the only reason someone as terrible as Trump could win is because there are large pockets that (for whatever reason) vehemently hate Clinton.
It also would have gotten rid of Trump’s ability to set himself apart as not being a member of establishment politics
@Pantheist Yes. I honestly do believe that the primary system, especially the Democrat primary, was ‘rigged’ to push their candidate through to the general ballot.
But I really think that Bernie, who could be labeled with the “Socialist” tag (as he mentioned numerous times in the 80’s), would have been a target for the Republicans and undecided also.
And… most all mainstream pollsters were pretty much worthless crap for this one.
@daveinwarsh True. My mother-in- law was already complaining about him being a socialist last spring, but I don’t know how indicative her opinion is of the country as a whole since she honestly believes that Clinton is a witch (yeah… the kind with green skin that flies on broomsticks… I’ve got nothing more to say about that) and that Michelle Obama is a man? I still like to imagine Bernie would have won, but you’re right- obviously the polls this election cycle have been unreliable.
@daveinwarsh @Pantheist The head of a major polling organization, Nate Silver, (http://fivethirtyeight.com/) has been very critical of his own polling methodology, in scathing detail. His podcast is worth listening to, and his blog is a great look into how mainstream pollsters have now tossed their processes out the window and started over. Because, gallingly, the T organization’s polls were more accurate.
@OldCatLady @daveinwarsh @Pantheist
My understanding had the pollsters over sampling Democrats.
Quoted from the LA Times
who had a methodology different from the others.
@daveinwarsh
My personal take last spring and now: any Republican, Trump included, could have destroyed him. Possibly Biden or Warren could have won this election.
But I am as capable of being wrong as anyone else.
@f00l What about President Ash Carter?
@OldCatLady
Silver’s org doesn’t poll. It aggregates published polls using a theoretical model-based weighting - not just poll averages. They weight based on poll methodology, history of accuracy, history of “tilt” and other factors. There is a limit to how much the model can “help” the underlying polls - if the polls are not well done - the model can’t really fix them beyond a certain point. And good polling costs a lot of $.
Polls with published results are usually run by news organizations, foundations, and universities.
Silver’s aggregating and weighting methodology needs work, but is better than anyone else’s who is taking the results of an aggregation model public. Silver has no access to any internal campaign or party data, nor does any other public poll aggregator or analyst.
THe Trump campaign did their own polling. But they never released the data, so it doesn’t get into any public model results. Kellyanne Conway is a professional private pollster for conservative interests, among other talents. The Trump org expected to lose on Tuesday according to interviews, but they seemed to have better polling results than anyone except the LA Times.
@Al_Coholic
Ash Carter
Don’t know anything about his ability to function politically within the party or his ability to sel himself to the public.
There are always a few people around govt who are very clean and decent, very intelligent, know the issues, connect to people. But they are administrators. Sometimes they can cross over into “politician”, which is a different animal.
The ideally effective politician is someone like FDR or Reagan. A beautiful campaigner. An effective communicator. A simple enuf public face that we all kinda know who this person is. Strong positive electibility. And strong ability to work their will on Congress and to go around a sticky Congress to appeal to the people.
The ideal administrator is often somewhat less complex and possibly a more intelligent and honest operator. They get things done, but they don’t have to be manipulating Congress and the public all the times.
The best politicians in terms of getting stuff done, including worthy things, are often, tho not always, ruthless dishonest sociopathic assholes. Unfortunately.
@f00l So you’re saying President Trump just might work out after all?
@Al_Coholic
My guess: almost all sociopaths in govt do terrible things. Some few do good, at least in certain areas, if they bend their manipulative talents to policies that advance civilized and tolerant values.
LBJ was almost certainly sociopathic. And of course his Vietnam policy destroyed his presidency. However, name another politician in the 1960’s who could have gotten those civil rights bills thru Congress.
I suspect most sociopaths in government are terribly destructive of decency, honesty, fairness, and try to corrupt everything they touch. I am no historian, but suspect that the sociopath who moves the country forward is a rare beast.
@f00l The Good Sociopath
@f00l Trump is a rare beast too!
And if he ends up being one of the manipulative, destructive ones, he’ll fit right in!
@Pavlov
Good sociopaths. Bad sociopaths.
I’d guess politics has a v high incidence of sociopaths of whatever kind. If persons weren’t that way when they started, after a few years or decades…
Some - LBJ certainly, and prob Nixon - were that way by their college years.
Thx for link, good article.
It’s the best time to learn Russian!
@PocketBrain
Нам хана
@PocketBrain wodka.
done.
@carl669 cyka!
see?!?! i told you all to vote mehcronomicon. but nobody listened.
@carl669 Since when have we ever listened to you?
@Barney yeah. i just assume no one listens. then, when someone actually does, it’s like a big happy surprise!
Saturday Night Live finally broke me down. Go watch the opening number. I’m crying for the first time since I heard the election results. Can’t stop.
^bump
Link to video
Link to thread
SNL, the network “news” sites, NYT, WaPo, and most of the rest of the legacy "news"papers…
All equal and productive members of the entertainment division of the democrat party.
Y’all hang in there, and go listen to that Schadenfreude song if you want something with a better beat to dance to.
Enjoy:
Bernie Sanders Could Replace President Trump With Little-Known Loophole
A school district near me has banned the wearing of safety pins (even when worn as a temporary fixative applied to a garment) as they are “symbols of divisiveness and partisan political speech” . . .
They just email blasted the parents and students reminding them that safety pins have been previously banned as weapons and shall not be brought on to school property.
Zero tolerance (expulsion) will apply in instanes of infraction.
The title of my thread should now be amended to:
What.
The.
Actual.
Fuck.
America.
(fer realz?)
I’m tempted to go buy and disperse safety pins along sidewalks.
Set the pins free!
. . . Fuck 'em.
Sorry for the typos - I’m a little drunk (again). And I’m as mad as hell . . . and I’m not going to take this anymore.
@Pavlov if you meant to link your first paragraph somewhere it broke.
If I were you I would totally order bulk safety pins and then put a pile on the doorstep of every school in the district.
@jbartus wow - thanks - yup, that link above is as broke as my grandpa used to be on the day after his gov’t check would arrive. (That’s really fucking broke.)
Here’s the correct link:
http://www.pitch.com/news/blog/20844364/shawnee-mission-school-district-forbids-teachers-from-wearing-safety-pins
I’d ask @tHumperChick to fix it but she’ll just giggle and let me wallow in my own mess.
@Pavlov “Zero tolerance” is just another word for zero judgement.
/youtube freedoms just another word
@Pavlov I’ve joined some secret ‘resistance’ FB groups, and this is common to most school districts. Me, I’m ordering these and digging out my old kilt pins. https://www.amazon.com/6-Color-Extra-LARGE-Steel-Safety-Pins/dp/B001ECMXHG
@Pavlov Rent a helicopter using the name of the fool who made this policy. Circle over the school in the dead of night pretending to be a police copter with a spotlight on looking for a criminal on the run. Blanket the place with safety pins.
@Pavlov Damn how are the tenured teachers gonna keep their diapers on?
I talk a good game, but just now on a WalMart run, I decided not to wear a safety pin. This is Florida, and there are two trailer parks between me and the store.
@OldCatLady Sometimes it’s better not to know some things.
Of course there’s no safety pins allowed at schools.
They could be used as a weapon!
@daveinwarsh
Could we ban pens also? They’re dangerous.
@PlacidPenguin
@Pavlov
Just ban learning. That’s dangerous too.
@f00l @Pavlov
I was thinking more along the sense of immediate physical danger.
@PlacidPenguin @pavlov @f00l it sounds to me like use of a brain has already been banned.
Trump tweets:
“Chuck Jones, who is President of United Steelworkers 1999, has done a terrible job representing workers. No wonder companies flee country!”
If he’s done such a terrible fucking job, wouldn’t Carrier have wanted to stay???
Someone please make this Kafkaesque nightmare stop. The drugs aren’t helping.
@Pavlov
4 years.
4
Years.
@Pavlov One of the reasons I’ve been so down.
@Pavlov
@Pavlov Meh, cash out move to Ketchum and keep your head down. This upside of all of this is there is no longer any global warming or fly ash pond controversy.
@cranky1950 Why, yes! And Russia is good and would never hack our computers (no matter what the actual experts in Intelligence say) and who needs Intelligence briefings, anyway? The President-elect knows more about Russia than the Intel folks and more about ISIS than the military. It’s China that is bad, regardless of the fact that we owe them $1.2 trillion and do masses of business with Chinese companies. I’m thinking of starting a business in fireproof handbaskets, as it appears everyone will need one.
@rockblossom Intelligence briefings ha, why who need intelligence at all! This is the dawn of a new era. The do what cultural revolution.
@Pavlov It’s been a month, and I’m still trying to figure out how to cope. I thought for awhile I’d put my time and effort into marches, rallies etc. Then I looked into funding NRDC and its ilk. It all feels as productive as the part in Peter Pan where Tinkerbell could get well again if children believed in fairies. Music helps. So do Samantha Bee, Steven Colbert, and the steadfast refusal of Slate to ‘normalize’ this. I’m still looking for some good grappa. In the interim:
@OldCatLady
The US as a 1st world banana republic.
@f00l Oh stop being melodramatic. We’re merely transforming to the pseudo-libertarian lazy fairy economic principles that spawned the great depression and nearly drove the country to communism, killed a bunch of people but made the lifestyles of the rich and famous really cheap. It’s about time the family mansions were taken out of mothballs and the lights shine again. Don’t be such a Debbie downer.
@cranky1950 Meh really needs a “dripping sarcasm” emoji.
@rockblossom My feelings are more like
@cranky1950
Fairy Tinkerbell economics.
If we believe, it will live? We had all better start clapping.
@OldCatLady I would probably add:
In my never ending quest (well from my perspective) to be a ray of sunshine, , , You all realize that in a few years we’re going to look upon the last 20 years as the goodtimes.
@cranky1950
Oh thanks so much. I feel way better now.
I keep thinking: Demographics. Education. Esp economic education. Someday all that’s got to hit.
It would be nice if the nearly powerless loyal opposition got a clear Econ message and tried to sell it.
@cranky1950 @f00l It is my considered opinion that the Fart will continue to lie, deny, cheat and evade. Pass the hemlock.
@f00l the problem is there is no structure to the opposition. While the other side complains about the media, they own both sides of the argument and use it accordingly. When Nixxon played the race card and pulled the deploarables who were mererly assholes at that point to the other side. Later leaders of the darkside developed the media strategies to forge them in loyal supplicants that considered themselves to be exerting their freewill to overcome the brainwashed liberal horde that was surely leading them straight to hell. Until these proud rugged individualists end up living in migrant camps and living on handouts again, ain’t nothing gonna change. The Prescott Bush’s of the country have taken over. Look at the Michigan recount and how quickly they acted to suppress it once they were found out.
@cranky1950
I grant your argument re the media. Perfect. They do own both sides. And now DT owns them.
The media has been played and played and played. You are right. Since Nixon. Esp since Reagan. Nobody on the media much debates the “meta-debate” and what is a political fact. And the “self-reliant conservative” sticker has become such an automatic badge of virtue and patriotism, like saluting the flag. Altho if those policies were actually put into place, 2/3 of the people who voted for them would be horrified.
the media sux sux sux at economics. And nobody does a public honest evaluation of the Econ options in a world of global economy (we ain’t turning back) and multinational mega-corporations who view humans as assets in the same terms that they might view their on-site inventories, and when legal systems designed for horse-and-buggy days can be infinitely gamed by the wealthy and powerful and the corp interests.
And then DT took the trad, “respectable” Rep party and pwned it. And then pwned us all.
Fwiw George HW Bush is widely known to have voted for HRC. “W” is widely believed not to have voted for DT. They didn’t go public, but they did talk to their friends. They are horrified by Trump, even tho the Rep party set itself up for this.
Whaddaya know. Turns out most of those “red voters” weren’t movement conservatives after all. Who’d uh thunk it?
If the media and then Dems and what centrists still exist don’t figure out a viable approach to the automatic portions and rust belt portions of red America it’s gonna be a long dark night.
@f00l You’re ignoring the fact that the election process is rigged and unless there are grossly extenuating circumstances republican wins are guaranteed. That’s why McCory went so apeshit. He didn’t realize that he was the face of the toll road/ash pit/poisoned well water controversy. HB2 hurt but that alone shouldn’t have been enough to counter act the rural/middleclass republican vote given the degree of gerrymandering.
@f00l We’re also ignoring the fact that a lot of us would have happily voted for McCain or Lincoln Chaffee rather than the bitch that sold out to the Walton’s in the 90’s an help give us “free trade and Globalism”. You have to remember she was raised Republican and does have the proper background.
@cranky1950
I live in Texas. I understand “rigged”. However today’s rigged does not begin to approach how really bad it could get. I desperately hope we don’t go that direction.
Remember when the Texas Democrats left the state to stop/protest gerrymandering (to create procedural probs in Austin) and the Republicans had the Texas Rangers hunt them down? Not so long ago. And that has always been the way of the Austin statehouse, among many others.
All politicians have areas where they suck. Or sucked. Most people did not get what globalization would mean, back then. Excepting, famously, Ross Perot among others. But I think even if Perot had managed to become pres, globalization would have still swept the world and humans would still be corporate playthings. Very little diff. Corp Powers continue, unexamined.
There are plenty of reasons to hate/despise any politician that ever breathed. My simple formula nowadays is “who might possibly win. that might be better than the other ones.” Every politician who has ever held power has a longish list of crimes and errors. Sausage making is ugly. No alternative tho.
Re economics: I have seen no serious discussions of economics from national politicians lately, tho I’m not an addict and may have missed stuff. Reps promo fantasy philosophies and fantasy fairness with free market nonsense paradise. And push policies their constituencies do not want, if those voters would stop and think. Dems focus on grievances. Neither approach deals with the topic honestly. Tho sometimes you see an Econ plan that does not suck from someone.
What we need is a charismatic plain-speaking tv-friendly economist type who is not wedded to a doctrine to the point of blindness, and who will speak and sell truth. And a similar pop-culture friendly media deconstruction expert. People perfectly willing to become Trump tweet targets. Fun.
And the media - the Times, the Post CNN (forget Fox) and wherever else - need to find a way to deconstruct Trump while the sumultaneously connecting with the rust belt and “left behind” voters. That’s a tall one. They appear not to have even started with it yet. Still stuck in the mindsets Trump used against them.
@cranky1950 You lost me at “bitch”. I’m interested in informed, reasoned, passionate debate, not name-calling. Otherwise a very interesting conversation, thanks! I feel so disenfranchised that it doesn’t seem to be a very useful investment of my time to be well informed politically, but I love to read discussions among those who are.
@moondrake That’s ok, I frame my rhetoric to give those who won’t pay attention anyway a reason not to.
@moondrake You post in a topic with ‘fuck’ in the title, yet balk at ‘bitch’?
@OldCatLady
Name calling vs not is the issue I suspect.
And ps why arent you blaming me for this?
@f00l I blame you because I can’t remember the poetry I learned from a USN commander I worked with once upon a time. He could curse in verse, stringing together scatological, profane, vulgar, politically incorrect, and obscene terms into rhymes. He could fit the terminology to the occasion, too. Sigh.
@OldCatLady
Omg like rap combined with Cockney rhyming slang combined with Parris Island lingo!
@f00l is sorry you
Were not able to record
All his spoken words.
@OldCatLady Bah, it was just a lame reason to go meta. Let it go. Names shmames it’s just a lame attempt to put ones self above the fray. Poor Pharisee wannabes.
@cranky1950
Hey. Cheer up now. It’s only life, the universe, and everything.
@OldCatLady So then you moved to Brooksville?
@f00l I should probable get a bag of cheezy poofs and meditate.
@cranky1950
Yes. Or remember when you were young and people wanted to tune in and turn on? Perhaps the next 4 will bring a revival of those customs.
@f00l Uh no, that period from 1967 to 1974 is pretty hazy.
@OldCatLady My issue wasn’t with profanity. I’m not a big fan of profanity as written word, despite cursing like a sailor in spoken word. But it isn’t offensive to me, just lazy except when used in its proper role as dramatic emphasis. Name calling almost always bothers me, including all the many nicknames people have assigned to our President Elect, although those often at least show some imagination. But just plain old name calling, especially one tied up in traditional gender (or other) bias, derails my engagement with the conversation and supplants interest with distaste. I don’t want to make a big deal out of it, I just wanted to point out that name calling lowers the tone of the discussion.
@moondrake
And yet with two paragraphs devoted to just that . . .
@Pavlov Explaining myself, not trying to provoke an argument. It was my perception from other people’s comments that I’d not made my reasoning clear in my original post.
I know I should just sit on my hands here but . . . on second thought, yeah - fuck it. Not worth the electrons.
IT WAS BRILLIANT. IT WAS GREAT. IT WAS STRESS. IT WAS A PENALTY SHOOTOUT! SEATTLE! A SKY OF BLUE! A SEA OF GREEN!