The thread for watching and talking about that Onkyo Giveaway Poll Thing
6(Reminder: The poll is closed for guessing, as of 10am eastern time. You're too late. Be a better Meh fan next time.)
Already eliminated? Is your guess looking pretty good still? Who do you think might win?
Here's where you can reveal the complex algorithmic formula and research you did to calculate the scientifically best guess, or show us the dartboard you used.
Meanwhile, we're still working on getting this spreadsheet up to date with all the guesses.
- 39 comments, 29 replies
- Comment
So, not only are we dangerously close to surpassing my carefully executed plan of "386", I was unknowingly the second person to guess that particular number. I take comfort in knowing we will both lose shortly.
@cinoclav Ah yes, my preferred method for this game as well.
We are approximately half way to my guess. Hoping for a win here!
I guessed 532. The mid day curve is in its way down, but there was a spike before midnight last time. It'll probably be between 600-700.
Hm... I was the only person who guessed 411. Two people guessed 412, so it can't go over. And @gti87 guessed 409, so we'll tie if it's 410. I think this has a shot at joining the Xbox One on my brother's shelf. (I just bought a new receiver a couple of months ago.)
Was a tiebreaker announced? Or does a tie make it Oprah time?
I was gonna be an ass that exploited the fact that there were no real rules saying I couldn't guess multiple times, and guess every single answer. And there we no rules saying rules could be changed. Then I decided not to be a dick.
I did a CTRL+F for numbers that nobody guessed, and picked a number that had no guesses either 5 below, or 5 above it to better my odds. Shortly after, guesses close to mine were made :(
@lichme "gonna be an ass" :P
Hey my guess isn't on the spreadsheet, what gives?
@DrunkCat Mine isn't either, probably still populating from the thread in their own Meh fashion...
@DrunkCat Spreadsheet? Edit: Oh I see it.
@DrunkCat It takes a lot longer to fill out that spreadsheet than we thought. Still working.
@dave S'cool, I didn't see it populated when I first opened it so the second time I saw it and it had a bunch of lines I thought you guys were done. :x
@DrunkCat I think we're done now. I see you in there.
You seem to be filling out the duplicate guesses. Are you doing something with that, should one of them win?
@darksaber99999 Current plan is to ruthlessly make fun of them.
The mean was: 540*
The median was: 512*
Either appears that it would of been a much better guess than mine.
*This was only looking at guess where people simply put a number in the post. If they included words along with their guess it is not included in my figure. 689 total guesses this way.
I picked 987. Because 7 was never actually the guilty party.
I considered that this item was hugely popular last time, but ignored (neglected to consider) that most interested people may have already bought. Then I figured that on Friday, some people might slack off, so I chose 719, 3/4 of what sold last time. I also didn't think to look at the chart of time vs purchases. It's a crap shoot.
Oh, and many people are likely to be looking for speaker docks since it's Friday.
There was a poll?
Damn, I'm out.
So, just thinking out loud here, but if everyone stops buying these, and, say, maybe 137 buyers could cancel, I'll let you buy mine at a marginally lower price on eBay.
@editorkid you sound like a Royals fan.
If I'm one higher than right before midnight, do I buy one to make myself win (not withstanding possible cancellations) then I get a twofer on a Friday (Saturday?) instead of Tuesday thus ending the universe as we know it?
I feel bad about my impending loss even though I wouldn't know what to do with this.
I'm out. I'd have just given it away in a(nother) fat shaming Photoshop contest anyway. :-P
Only 107 more suckers…ahem, I mean savvy shoppers and the prize is mine!!! Victory is within my grasp. If I win, I'll put it in the next mehrican exchange.
239 more to go...
That poll should have had other options, like "I'm not going to even try to guess, because I am far too lazy."
680 is still looking good. I arrived at my brilliant calculation by noting that 68 had sold around 2 hours after the sale started. I then multiplied 68 by 10 hours, thereby getting 680. Not sure why I multiplied by 10, except that it was late and I wasn't thinking clearly.
This kind of reminds me of the time on Woot where your order number had to match the stock market close, or something like that, to score a BOC. Kept watching the stock numbers change all day.
(I think we had to buy woot-off lights to get the order number, does anyone remember?)
@KDemo I think I remember that, which is probably why I have the woot-off lights.
@AnotherDawn - Mine are still in my back room unopened. :-)
@KDemo That's for the best. The lights were very annoying.
even though I didnt notice that you guys changed the poll into a guess and win when I checked last night I still attempted to guess(and late) but sadly my guess was not on the spreadsheet prob cause of the lateness but I gave it the college try! I didn't guess correct anyway but I still believe I did it!
I'm going to need a few of you to cancel your orders please. Kthxbye
Brilliant way to plant the thought in the minds of 1000 people that they could have this unit.
Only 'bout 100 to go... Still have a chance!
So close... I have hope. If not we get to see what is for sale tomorrow!
Dammit, my original guess was (if I remember right) 734, but then I thought I aimed to high and edited it within the five minute window. I'm an idiot.
Of course, more people have bought since I looked last, so my initial guess wouldn't have mattered anyway.
Masonnyc I believe has it
Looks like @CircaRigel is the winner!
@TBoneZeOriginal Still 748 at quarter after... @CircaRigel seems to have nabbed it
@TBoneZeOriginal Whoohoo! Party at @CircaRigel's house! Hopefully @marklog will bring homebrew.
748 but they're waiting for any cancellations. I was 765... so sad!
So @snapster... with this giveaway how many sales do you suppose you missed out on as people were hoping to win one instead? (just being a smart ass thinking about unintended consequences)... of course as they watched their hopes vanish as sales climbed they could then have chosen to buy presuming you hadn't run out when they pulled the trigger. And I thought I saw, before it vanished that you had 1300 of these? Or was I so tired, not being a west coast person, that I dreamed it? Of course not knowing how many you had, if they had wanted to buy and their number guess was a higher one, they were gambling on winning vs missing out due to sold out... Sorry it its late and I am rambling... Good night.
@Kidsandliz "It's back for round two: we’ve got 1,384 of these today, take your time, do your homework, beg your spouse"...
@duodec as I said - tired... I see where it is - under the picture - that is why I didn't see it in the description and presumed it vanished. OK. So @snapster you can ignore most of what I said... I'm a dunderhead here... but I still wonder if this prevented some sales as they weighed winning vs buying... (said she who forgot to enter as I was going to do so at 9:59am to at least make sure I was anchoring my answer on the most current "floor" possible, and then was busy doing something else. Oops.)
Why don't they just give the remainder to us guessers who were the closest? Then they won't have to try to sell them again.
@slp50 fuku
@Kidsandliz agreed ill take one in my fuku
I fell short of my guess AND failed at my clever attempt to sucker Holly in to sending me additional mehness.
I would attempt drinking terrible but I'm pretty sure I would end up in the hospital.
Damn. 12 more. Just 12 more you cheap bastards!
I won it? Wow! AWESOME! It can replace my old Onkyo!! Definitely need some good things to happen after my car was totaled and my dog (training to be my service dog) nearly died of hemorrhagic gastroenteritis last week.
My guess was 748
Hey @CircaRigel Since I was probably a close second (I think I guess 739), can I have your old Onkyo?
@Throdis I'll think about it... at a minimum I'd need to have shipping paid for. My old one is an Onkyo TX-SR333 Amazon sent me at the end of last August for review purposes in their Vine program. Since they recently adjusted the terms, we are finally allowed to transfer ownership of items we've had for at least 6 months (which is when full ownership is transferred to us, not that any Vine member has ever had anything recalled).
Or maybe I'll hold my own drawing for the old receiver, or make a trade for something... I prefer giving to a worthy person or cause over selling... always have. I gave my SR313 to a worthy cause when Amazon sent my SR333.
@CircaRigel Congratulations! Not only do you get a sweet receiver, you'll go down in mediocre history!
Damn! 383.. You proved my silver spoon wrong.. GD silver spoon!!
What's this? It turned into a cupcake? Damn magic!!
Meh sold 748, and I guessed 747. Someone please cancel 1 order, so I may win. Thanks!
For what it is worth, I guessed 747 early in the game, when Meh has sold maybe 85, so my guess is near psychic.
@mediocrelab I think I almost guessed that because of a Boeing 747.
@mediocrelab I guessed 748 very early as well, just after 12:30 EDT. Then went to bed, figuring nothing would come of it and never checked it again until I got notices of posts about me. There was a person who cancelled their order, but that was done prior to the end of the sale, judging from the time stamp on the thread they made asking to cancel and the post in it saying their order was cancelled. Apparently their kid ordered it without permission.
Am very grateful to them. I definitely needed my luck to turn (and will try and pay it forward by giving my old Onkyo TX-SR333 receiver to a worthy cause).
Shit... I was 749.... Whose significant other fucked it up for me???
@tomdina It was somebody's dad...
@Thumperchick well, being one myself, I can't question fatherly wisdom (it's in the manual). So I have to agree that you really didn't need it.
@tomdina It wasn't my dad...
@Thumperchick generic non-specific "you"... Not you you.