Predict future value of car I may or may not buy.
7Winner gets a cookie in 14 years.
2009 Pontiac G8 GXP, manual transmission, no sunroof
71k miles as of today
Will be driven 10,000/yr
Winner determined via KBB value for private party sale of 2009 Pontiac GXP, manual, no sunroof, 211,000 miles, in good condition on 1/1/2029. Cookie type is my choice. Winner responsible for shipping & handling charges.
- 27 comments, 81 replies
- Comment
Not sure if serious.
No idea but I bet the thing is listed for about $35,000 in today's market. That is a very rare car. When I was car shopping back in May there were 3 manual GXPs in the entire country. They were all priced around $40K. Ridiculous.
I'm going to guess it will be worth around $13,000 in 2029. It certainly won't appreciate in value. But, cars like this tend to have a floor of around $10K to $15K depending on condition.
@jsh139 if you're still in the market, the asking price is considerably lower than $32k. No hard feelings if you take it.
@jsh139 also, very serious. Got financing approved. Just don't want to pay the full asking price.
@JerseyFrank I'm not in the market anymore, but if the car is in decent shape it may be worth it. They stuffed a Corvette engine in a refined (for GM) RWD sedan and gave it a manual trans. Ya gotta love that. Like I said, it will probably never be a collector car, but it should be pretty fun to scoot around in. If you are looking for a fullsize RWD American muscle car, and are willing to forego the manual trans, I would give a serious look at the 2012 Chrysler 300 SRT-8. 470 hp hemi V8, RWD, all the electronic goodies, and a newer platform. They can be had for $35K in excellent condition with a warranty. I was very close to buying one, but decided it was a little too big for me.
@JerseyFrank And if $35K is a little too steep, the Dodge Charger SRT8 is a little less refined than the 300, but has the same engine and is a little more sportier. Plus, it's about $3K less.
@jsh139 Chargers are lovely. But for me, no stick = no sale. I owned an automatic once and hated it. This one's pretty, but I like Chargers better with their snarly face:![](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==)
@jsh139 Honestly, I shouldn't be buying this, but 13.5 years in an unnecessary bare bones pickup is wearing on me. Income is fine, but I'd have a better emergency fund save first. But it's the GXP!!!
@JerseyFrank That's funny, because the vehicles that most make my heart go pitter patter are well-loved old trucks.![](http://carhdwallpaper.biz/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/old-truck-side-view.jpg)
@moondrake I hear ya, man. I thought I wouldn't miss the stick but I definitely do at times. My last 6 cars were manual trans, and my newest one is an auto. I thought it wouldn't be a huge deal, but I find myself wishing it came in manual sometimes.
@JerseyFrank yup, I definitely get it. If you pass on this one it may take you a while to find another. They're that rare!
@jsh139 confession: I have never driven stick, outside of helping a friend get a very forgiving Saturn home after dental surgery.
@JerseyFrank ha!! Nothing like starting out on a 400hp beast!
@jsh139 it worked for my marriage
@JerseyFrank![](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==)
@JerseyFrankI learned to drive stick on my HS boyfriend's jeep out in the open desert, where there was room to run. I had a co-worker whose first introduction to stick was driving her boyfriend's big 4wd truck in out of the desert after he shot himself in the foot. The boyfriend, my co-worker and the truck all bear the scars of that experience.
@moondrake I had a boyfriend who really wanted to teach me to drive a standard. Then he let it slip that it was so I could drive him home when he got drunk. I still don't know how to drive a stick.
@Kleineleh Yeah, I'd have declined, too. My HS boyfriend was Mormon, so no problems in that arena.
First time I drove stick I'd gone out to karaoke with some friends, but I wasn't feeling well so I was the only one who hadn't been drinking. Took me 5 minutes to get through one stoplight at 1am, but we made it to everyone's homes. My next car I got was a stick and I love it. There are times when I'm driving work vehicles with an automattic that I really miss being able to dictate what gear I'm in.
@moondrake
Wasn’t quite open desert, just half-desert, half-dry-prairie complete with prairie dogs and road runners.
But it was one HS friend’s jeep. And I didn’t destroy the clutch, to my astonishment.
2 friends went along, we all got our “certificates” that day. Which was good, because 6 months later one of my friends drove her bf home from hunting after they went hunting, he was spotlighting (both driving and shooting, the idiot), except that he shot himself in the thigh.
I suppose he looked like a “varmint” to himself in the dark.
@JerseyFrank
There’s nothin’ like a stick shift connected to some horsepower.
@f00l @JerseyFrank
Just buy it silly
I also enjoy old trucks
IH, Diamond T
@f00l @JerseyFrank
TWSS?
The website put a cookie on my computer. I win!
@nadroj it expires. I'll get you a fresh one if you win.
I will be too old to eat a non-pre-chewed cookie in 14 years but I want to be first to guess $0.00.
It's a Pontiac. I thought they were pretty much worthless the day they rolled off of the production line -- that's why GM cut them loose
My guess: $-5.00
@capguncowboy These are really re-badged Holdens. Maybe not much better than American GM products, but those Aussies did some bonkers things with engine and car combinations that their American counterparts had gotten away from for a while.
KBB value on the 20 year old car with high mileage engine + inflation...$2100. Value as a resources to those that survive the Thunderdome... Priceless.
Should the answer be in 2029 dollars? Do we need to factor inflation into our answer?
@Bro one million dollars in 2029 $$
@Bro yes, in 2029 dollars
Assuming Price Is Right rules "Closest to actual without going over" than I am going to take $1 = $2.40 in 2029
21 minutes more and the ebay anxiety ends.
Oh God, what have I done?
![enter image description here](https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10731154_10152880769624903_2142385365791720785_n.jpg?oh=7458105dd310fba2e65fee600604559d&oe=54F31262&__gda__=1425124724_83ca09bf558be0016d1f2ac0b73ee892)
@JerseyFrank RIP
@JerseyFrank Congrats! And you got it for a STEAL, btw. Make sure you get it looked at by a competent mechanic. It has some mods, so you'll want to make sure that everything is in good working order.
@jsh139 I hope you're right. I justified the purchase based on "Hey, if the Tesla Model 3 comes out and tickles my fancy, I can get out of this without losing more than $5000."
@jsh139 Also, the loan I got is equally incredible. It's completely unsecured, $25k @ 2.79% for 36 months.
@JerseyFrank Friend in CA has a nice Tesla. Rides so amazing -- no sound. Goes pretty far on a charge too. Of course, it depends on where you live if there are charging stations around. None here that I know of. Plus I'm not sure they would work in the winter here. I live in the land of 4wd that actually has a need for 4wd.
I'm holding out for a US version of the HSV Maloo R8.
@The_Baron WTH? They brought back the El Camino?
@JerseyFrank Not yet. The Pontiac G8 was based from the Holden Commodore (Chevrolet product, made in Australia), they were going to release a sport truck version of the Holden Ute, but Pontiac went under. Holden has been making that ute for decades. Since the Commodore has been brought back now as the Chevrolet SS, they could bring over the HSV (Holden Special Vehicles) Maloo as the El Camino. It would be like the modern equivelent of the 1970 Chevelle SS/El Camino SS pair. (Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad)
@The_Baron I think the car is hot, but I don't think it'd sell well. I imagine the target demographic for a 2-seater El Camino revival is too old to lift anything into the trunk/bed or too young to know what the El Camino was.
@JerseyFrank It's defenitely a niche market. So much that people pay good money to have them imported and coverted to drive in the states. It would be a short run, but the buyers are there. http://www.lefthandutes.com/
@JerseyFrank @The_Baron I live in a small development. Out of about 50 houses, 1 has a restored 1970 El Camino SS and another has a restored 1971 Chevelle SS. What are the odds of that? Oh, and they're both green with white stripes. And they both owned them before they moved in. Freaky.
@The_Baron Ooo, I did not know about this SS...
@JerseyFrank
@jqubed I loved that movie when I saw it. I can't think of El Camino without thinking of the movie.
@JerseyFrank I hadn't heard of it before but aired it once overnight at a TV station I used to work at. It was definitely the best overnight movie I had, far better than the usual crap you'd never heard of.
@jqubed dammit now I have to rewatch that movie.
@The_Baron Don’t hold your Breath…don’t Forget, Holden(as well as Ford) have Ceased/will soon Cease all Australian production.
as much as I hate to admit it, The next Commodore will be a rebadged FWD Opel…(Like several of the Buick models on sale in the US, and most of Vauxhall’s lineup in the UK)
My prediction is about treefiddy
@pistol Damn you Loch Ness Monsta!!!!!
Well if that turns out to be a dud, I have a 1990 dodge grand caravan with 205,000+ miles on it you can buy. I have more or less rebuilt the engine one part at a time. With all the money I have had to sink into it in the last 6 years, presuming I had had all of that in one place at one time (couldn't do cash for clunkers as I had a house 2500 miles away that hadn't sold then so was paying rent and mortgage and 2 sets of utilities and then for 2 cancers all at the same time), I could have bought a fully decked out honda fit LOL. In January you can get historic plates for it. Just think of the company you'd be in - Model T Ford, my dad's 1940 Packard that my sister now has (started it's life as a 13 year old used car in when my dad was young)… The ghetto van's main current flaws are a dead A/C compressor which shouldn't be a problem until next summer, a falling down headliner with crumbling insulation so spray glue is only a temp fix and peeling paint (sand paper and rustolium spray paint fixes that).
@Kidsandliz but what about the mpg?
@patthetuck 20-21 highway (at 70-75), city about 16 or so.
@Kidsandliz I had good good luck this summer gluing my wife’s Chrysler T&C headliner back up with a couple of glue stick (it’s what I had) after spray adhesives had failed in the heat. Probably temporary, but postponing hoopty status was really my main goal.
@salaosantiago Mine blew an engine bearing the following March (gosh this thread is old LOL). So now I own a not quite as ancient Honda Element (would still prefer to have the space and towing power of a minivan -but this was cheaper…)
5
Car arrived in one piece. I learned to drive stick this morning. Now I just need to wait for the title so that I can make it all legal and stuff. Needs tires and it's got a bum tie rod, so that and an alignment. Not happy about that, but no big deal.
The car hauls ass and is a blast to drive
@JerseyFrank Still not bad for the price you got it at. Tie rod end + alignment should be around $200. And tires, well, with that car you're probably going to need to replace tires more often than engine oil! ;)
Looks like I’m still doing alright. KBB doesn’t seem to be accurate (like, 50% off). There are 5 similar vehicles for sale across the country right now, and they’re all going for more than $30,000.
@JerseyFrank Remind us what you paid again? There’s a guy here at the office who has one, but with the automatic. I assume there’s quite a few more of those available
@compunaut $24,000. Be careful comparing. The GT trim is still a big V8, but isn’t holding value. The GXP has a bigger V8, and comes in both automatic and manual. Manual is more sought after.
GT was made for 2 years and there are 10s of thousands. GXP was made for a few months, and there were only 1827 imported. 800 were manual.
@JerseyFrank KBB is never very accurate on low volume enthusiast cars. It use to tell me that my old manual 2009 Sky Redline was worth about $5000 when you could not find them for less than three times that price. It is a little more accurate on higher volume cars; it was pretty spot on on my 2003 Z06 with 15k miles on it that I bought a little over a month ago.
@JerseyFrank Is it your daily driver? Looking at ones for sale they all have increadibly low mileage for their age: 17k, 19k, 39k, 42k, 56k. Even at a conservative use, you would expect more than 70K if used daily. Are these more weekend fun cars?
@JerseyFrank $24,000 two years ago seems like a great deal![enter image description here](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==)
@MrMark I bought it with 72k on it. It’s a daily driver, but I only put on 8-10k a year. The cars listed are low miles, and a lot of people keep 'em that way. I figured that it was already past collector miles and I’d rather have fun driving something that might hold value than have no/less fun driving something for 10+ years that would have no value at the end.
@MrMark also, are you in the car business, or did you generate that with something public?
@JerseyFrank I just pulled it from the CarGurus website. Seems to be the best indicator of what you can expect to pay from a car lot/dealer.
Edit. Just to be clear that chart is based on current and recent prices. Not from two years ago is my understanding. But Im not exactly sure how many months their history goes back.
I still get to enter a guess on Nov 3rd 2029 don’t I?
Want that cookie. Want it delivered to me in that vehicle. .
@f00l Singular - still only one cookie?
![](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==)
http://shirt.woot.com/offers/cookie-in-each-hand
Well, I’m experiencing my first major repair and turned it into an upgrade. Something killed one of the after-market catalytic converters that was on the car when I bought it. Finding OEM replacement cats isn’t easy, so I’m getting two new high-flow cats, O2 sensors, and a MAF sensor. And if I’m doing that, I figured it’s a fine time to put in some long tube headers. And if I’m doing that, I might as well get it dyno’d and tuned…
$4000. Merry Christmas to me, I guess.
@JerseyFrank
Blame the goatapus.
@JerseyFrank I think it’s wicked cool that you’re keeping a 2-year-old thread alive. (I’m a car guy, too!)
@TrophyHusband you thought 2 years was good…
/8ball Will this Pontiac last to 200K miles?
It is decidedly so
/8ball Will anyone want to drive it after 200K miles?
It is certain
/8ball Will anyone want to pay any more than than $4000 for a 20yr old Pontiac jalopy?
Most likely
Alright-- The 8ball has spoken. But as a product of the 50s-80s, I think it is biased and doesn’t realize that Pontiacs aren’t relevant anymore
In 2024 it will be worth $175 if you drive it in to pull a part.
I’ve got one more payment left on the car. As of today, similar cars are still selling for $25-31k. With the miles on mine (about 105,000?), it’d be in the lower end of that range.
KBB says: $16,976 using the current mileage, zip code, and condition as stated in the OP.
@JerseyFrank I’m anxiously awaiting these next 11+ years.
@JerseyFrank You didnt already buy the cookie did you?
@therealjrn I did, but I have no self control.
@JerseyFrank KBB is so out of touch with reality. they put the high value of my creampuff Blazer at $980, yet the beat down POS ones are selling for $2,000-$3,000 around here.
@ruouttaurmind The Kia that Doug Demuro reviewed was worth -$39.
https://jalopnik.com/here-s-why-this-beat-up-kia-is-the-best-car-i-ve-ever-r-1776230820
@narfcake @ruouttaurmind Sounds right for that car.
@blaineg @narfcake I get his point in the Kia review when he called it “freeing” to drive such a car. The best truck I have owned was an old Chevy pickup. It was 20 years old when I bought it and was a theft recovery with a mangled transmission (wouldn’t go into park or reverse). It was well used when I bought it for $450. $300 for a rebuilt tranny at the local transmission exchange place, about three hours effort to swap it out, and I was on the road. But what made it so great was the fact that it was well seasoned with it’s share of dings, dents and scratches. I didn’t have to worry about where I parked, or what I hauled. I wasn’t concerned about scratching up the bed of the truck, getting “desert pinstriping” when I drove through the thicket surrounding the desert trails, didn’t have to freak out when I opened the tailgate and it dropped down onto the trailer jack handle… it was a very, very freeing truck to drive and own. Plus, it was a full size long bed truck. I could pack so much stuff back there it was incredible.
Yup, I def get the point of how a cheap car with it’s dings and dents can be a refreshing transportation option.
The car is paid off, and every time it’s in the shop it’s expensive. KBB says: $15,394. CarGurus shows 4 manual transmission G8s available nationwide. Average price: $30,500.
Well since it is used I predict you will need to add $1000 to whatever the final sales price is because you likely will need that money shortly after the sale is final.
We’re approaching the half way point, at 7 years! I’ve put on an additional 65,000 miles since purchase, putting right around where I predicted. The cookie is getting close.
Current KBB private party value GROSSLY underestimates the actual value because of the rarity of the car.
Current KBB: $13,603.
Average (small sample) listing price on CarGurus: $36,000
The current used-car market is superheated by the vehicle shortage overall. Assuming we don’t go into full ecomeltdown as crucial material shortages accumulate to some critical-mass level, the markets ought to restablize in a familar manner in another 18 months. If that happens, the probable value of a fueled vehicle in 7 years with the stated characteristics seems likely to be in the range of $1.2K to $2.4K allowing for the inflationary factors that seem probable in the interim. Say, around a grand in current money.
Which reminds me, I need to get my extra Caravan CV cleaned out, get the windshield leak fixed, and market that puppy to somebody while I can still get good buck for it.
@werehatrack Hey I had a grand caravan last 21 years until it blew an engine bearing. My kid called it the ghetto van (it was from the era of the peeling paint and bad transmissions). It might last much longer than you think.
@Kidsandliz @werehatrack I think the idea is that prices are inflated now, and in a short time, prices will drop again. Especially if automakers modernize things like chipsets, and bring in strategies like tesla is using in the CPUs, costs will drop. Gas cars are going to be made less and less, gas stations will start closing, making driving one harder, etc.
Hey, OP here. I sold the G8 a couple weeks ago. $20,000. After 9 years, I put 60,000 miles on it.
@JerseyFrank i can’t believe those cars are so collectible?
Also, it doesn’t seem fair considering how upside down the used car market is right now. You did the right thing selling the car before the market came back down
@JerseyFrank What was your original purchase price?
@capguncowboy Not too many options out there if one wants a full size vehicle made in this century with a V8 and manual transmission.
@capguncowboy I definitely could’ve gotten more if I waited for the right buyer. But it was in 4 minor accidents and its age really needed someone who was willing to put sweat equity in. I was just paying my mechanic $2000-5000 a year + $800 for insurance and only driving it 5000 miles.
It was time to find a new owner. I found a guy who was in love with it. He had $20k. I had the car.![:heart:](https://dj5zo597wtsux.cloudfront.net/joypixels/assets/6.6/png/unicode/64/2764.png)
@narfcake $24,000
@JerseyFrank That was a very good price for the time. Even with the demise of Pontiac’s name, all the folks who knew kept the car as the deserving halo car that it is.
Alas, parts always have been rarer here in the states and have gotten even slimmer when Holden was shuttered.
@JerseyFrank @narfcake You did well!!!
@narfcake Do you own one? It sounds like you own one. Between the pandemic and the “hybrid work” model, I was putting fewer miles on it every year. It is was at the point that every regular maintenance became a rabbit hunt for replacing broken wires, brittle plastics, and model-specific parts. You couldn’t remove a piece of trim without having a month set aside to have the car put back together.
@JerseyFrank Wanted one, but my budget couldn’t justify it.
TBH, I’ll probably be more apt to end up with a PHEV or EV as my next vehicle – but the numbers have to make sense. With my current driving habits, I’d need a sub-$10k EV to have a reasonable ROI versus my current vehicle. And I don’t expect a used Leaf with a degraded battery to hold up for more than a decade.
@narfcake We added a Chevy Bolt EUV. With state and federal incentives, OTD was $26,500. I have enough spare solar generation to power about 8000 mile a year. Hit me up in 8 years or so.
@JerseyFrank Review on the Bolt? I glanced at one online over the weekend.
Current ride is a 2012 iMiev. Love it but the range was not great to start and is less now. 80ish to 50ish now depending on conditions and how you drive. Still works for 95% of my needs. This weekend it had a hiccup so evaluating fix vs buy.
PS - I can has cookies![:yum:](https://dj5zo597wtsux.cloudfront.net/joypixels/assets/6.6/png/unicode/64/1f60b.png)
@speediedelivery I love it. It’s my wife’s daily driver. She drives the most miles. It’s a golf cart with airbags filled with premium bits from the GM parts bin. It’s not refined. It’s not fancy. It doesn’t draw attention to itself.
I wish I had a choice of cars. I got stuck with a fully loaded one. I like most of the features, even if they’re expensive and unnecessary. I dislike Super Cruise. It’s very limited where it works. That’s… fine, but after 3 years, it’s a $25 subscription fee. Not worth it to me.
I like it enough that I’m waiting for the NJ rebates to kick back in at the end of the month, and I’m going to try and find another.
@JerseyFrank Therein is where the math wouldn’t work out so well, as it’s $25k more than what I paid for my
running in 25 minutes and drove it homedead hybrid.