Mediocre Fantasy Movie League 2: Back In The Habit
12Season 1 of the Mediocre Fantasy Movie League is over, so if you were wanting to join but didn’t want to be left in the dust with a pitiful score, now is the time!
Join here (if it asks for a password: wearemeh)
If you have already joined, you don’t have to do anything, we’re keeping the same league.
What is this?
Think Fantasy Football, but you own a movie theater instead. Each week you must choose from 15 movies that you can put on your 8 screens, and try to have the lineup that will make the most money at the box office for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night.
How does this work?
You are given a $1000 budget and the movies cost a certain amount based on expected return, so new releases may cost $300 - $800 per screen, but movies that have been running for awhile might only be $15 - $50.
Unlike a real movie theater, variety is not necessarily a good thing here; most of the time the best week is many screenings of the same movie.
A good example of this was last season when Independence Day 2, Central Intelligence, and The Shallows came out. The first two did great at the box office, but cost so much you could only run one or two; The Shallows was cheap enough that running it on seven screens ended up bringing in a lot more money.
Okay, but I can’t predict the future and I don’t care to do the research…
Fantasy Movie League has great info in their Research Vault and forum, and the FML Nerd Analyzer is also very helpful; you can adjust how well you think movies will do and it will tell you what your best lineup will be. Beware though, the default settings are often not correct.
Prizes?
I intend on it but no promises. If somebody beats @Chadp and I though, then definitely maybe.
Okay I’m in
Join here (if it asks for a password: wearemeh)
Please post what your movie theater name is, otherwise I can’t praise your success, ridicule your failure, or send prizes.
- 91 comments, 387 replies
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YES! Thank you! I was jealous of all of you on Season 1 playing with us outcasts. Now I will rule you all!
/giphy bwahahaha!
Cinenaut’s Cinemeh Art House & Cabaret
/giphy movies in Mordor?
Attn: General Annoucement:
YOU LOSE
That is all. Please return to your assigned activities.
@f00l My assigned activity is to beat you.
@ELUNO
au contraire.
Your assigned activity is to attempt to beat me and FAIL.
Please take this seriously. Slacking will not be tolerated.
/giphy FAIL
@f00l
/giphy WINNING! (At failing )
@f00l
/giphy boob shot
walp – too good to change it
@compunaut
/giphy boob head
@compunaut
/giphy boobs hot
@Pavlov
/giphy follow the boobs
@compunaut
If we follow the boobs, can we survive at such high altitude? Or at such high altitits?
/giphy boobs on high
@f00l
/giphy boobs make the world go round
@compunaut you got my attention
After my mild success for the second half of season 1, I am excited to compete for a full season.
/giphy yall goin down!
@MrGlass Damn. I’m gonna have to start doing research.
I’m so excited!!
Maybe this time.
Let’s rumble, bitches.
(I’m probably going to really suck at this . . . )
/giphy let’s rumble
@Pavlov
Do the ratings and info offerings on the site offer tit counts? That would help.
What’s the deadline?
/giphy deadline
@f00l
/giphy just do it now
@f00l Deadline for people to join is whenever, but deadline to set your lineup is Friday morning every week. I think it’s like 10 or 11am central?
@Moose 11AM central on the dot. Don’t edit it a few minutes before or you’ll be stuck.
@hollboll
/giphy you should know
@sammydog01
/giphy I really do
Ok, someone re-made Ben Hur, without Charlton Heston, without the 1950’s take-self-too-seriously cultural surroundings, starring actor bros, with a half-cgi bro-speak chariot race.
Has anyone seen this? Does anyone want to?
/giphy chariot race
@f00l Why yes. Put it on all your screens!
We’re Closed for Renovations. Mainly because management has no clue what we’re doing.
@cj0e congrats on taking Week 1.
@jbartus I got really lucky. Shot in the dark. This week, no freakin clue. I’m conflicted about betting the farm on Sully.
I’m locked in already for week 1 after seeing Thursday’s screen count projections, took a big gamble instead of hedging, we’ll see if it pays off . . . This game really forces you to change your thinking (with the bonuses, etc.) and how you might populate a traditional theater’s screens doesn’t really work . . . That is going to be difficult for me, as my gut says one thing but the construct of the game won’t allow me to do what my gut is telling me . . .
Don’t forget to set your lineup this morning!
@Moose My projectors are warm and lubricated
@ELUNO
I can only …
I just won’t.
Not gonna touch digital versus alternatives either.
Why don’t they have screen counts for new releases? Is that data only available after the weekend?
@f00l FYI: If I read correctly (it was late; I may have dreamed it), Screen Counts is NOT total screens, just no. of theaters showing a film. Does not account for multiple simultaneous screens at a single theater.
@f00l @compunaut Damn you researchers. I just like to click and get the dollars as close to 0 as possible.
@sammydog01 Didn’t say I was going to USE the research. Just followed the instructions for new players & read thru the strategy guide / FAQ / whatever it was called
/giphy good little boy
@compunaut
Yeah, sorta knew that in a 3am kinda way. But theater counts on new releases? Why nothing?
Hmmm.
@f00l Are you actually trying to win? That’s not like you…
Feeling OK? Got enough beer for the long weekend?
@compunaut
Not trying to win, at least don’t think so. Trying to understand well enough to fuck up my chances in an entertaining fashion.
I suppose “forums” are next.
As part of a settlement in a class-action lawsuit, “I’m Afraid I Can’t Screen That, Dave” has rebranded to “a projector pointed at the side of a barn.” We apologize for any resulting confusion.
@harrison I’m sorry, but that totally disqualifies you and all your proceeds are to be directed to me.
Wow, 19th in the first week. I have learned nothing at all from last season.
/giphy giving up
@darksaber99999
14th!
/giphy suck a d
@darksaber99999
Woo hoo! I broke the top 10!
There must be some kinda major coding error. I did not suck. WTF?
To all those of you who did better than me: my Karma meter says you will all die soon, and painfully. Thought you’d all wanna know so you could tell your loved ones.
/giphy karma meter
@f00l I did worse than you.
/giphy you’re welcome
@f00l You shall never see me fail! (for the 400th time…)
@f00l WTF? You read the instructions…
/giphy read the instructions
@compunaut
Not that one. This one:
/giphy how to cheat
@f00l Mehbe yu cant reed so gud. Where did you finish after Week 1?
@compunaut
Wut? Weak wun? Sumthin sumthin?
I finally got around to joining, and to setting a lineup.
I will suck this week. Officially.
I forgot. Combine 4 other drafts plus holiday plus Forest Hills plus Longhorns.
Anyone who remembered to update their film list, Fuck You, You Suck.
Although if the Horns play the rest of the season the way they played the opening game, who cares about anything else?
Plus New Bevo is a cute Baby Bevo.
@f00l You call that cute? Doesn’t hold a candle to the Mehrican pet threads.
nice cowlick, tho
@compunaut
Aw, such a cite widdle sweetheart. Only 1100 pounds or so now. Teensy Weensy! But widdle darling will grow!
The previous one weighed close to 2000 lbs.
I remembered to put in some movies. Hopefully other people will forget and I can actually join the ranks. Maybe I shouldn’t of put this reminder…
@RiotDemon Just be sure to check later this week to see if they make any updates. I might be wrong, but I think last week they added a movie later in the week.
Everyone who remembered to do their theater picks for the prev weekend is a sociopathic asshole.
For this competition to be fair, you should all handicap yourselves down to my mental and sanity levels.
@f00l
/giphy "sociopathic asshole"
/giphy me
@f00l Not sure I can match your sociopathic level - which way do you trend after a couple decent beers?
@compunaut
Trend, on the sociopathic scale you mean?
…
Hmmm. Test result after beers…
Hmmmm…
Record sociopathy.
Record insanity.
Record stupidity.
Hmmmm.
…
Sorry, all the lab technicians seems to have suddenly become decreased.
Wut wuz D Q?
/giphy amok
The Grand Rialto Excelsior is open for business.
I can’t decide whether “Bridget Jones’ Baby” or “Sully” will be better for Week 3 (relatively speaking). I lurv me some Tom Hanks, but that damn thing is so expensive…
/giphy brooding
@compunaut
/giphy direwolf
@compunaut Sully keeps getting good press…
@MrGlass
All the gf’s will wanna see Bridget - at least 1st week.
Please note that I am usually talking BS.
@compunaut Week 3 picks have been fucking agony and I have a feeling I am going to waaaay miss the mark this week.
/giphy fucking agony
@Pavlov
Agony works at a strip club near you now? I thought she was featured here.
Oh, that was last week.
Well, have fun!
@f00l I think she was performing exclusively at your Cineplex
/giphy live theater event
@compunaut
The lady gets around.
…
Candy Barr, prob filmed in the 1950’s
She gets down to undies and pasties, so NSFW.
Couldn’t find a vid of her wearing her trademark cowboy hat, boots, and set of 6 shooters.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?debug_prerolls=false&sts=17056&utcoffset=-300&v=Yz-Yhlq98XU&oref=https%3A%2F%2Fm.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DYz-Yhlq98XU%26itct%3DCBkQpDAYACITCNPG1KL4lM8CFZM0TgodLs8JAFIKY2FuZHkgYmFycg%3D%3D&has_verified=1&client=mv-google&layout=mobile
They have an age verification click-thru on this one.
@f00l Agony appears in every club, nightly.
Myself, I’m much more a fan of the Natalie Portman type, and the entire club / VIP room scene with Clive Owen as portrayed in Closer (2004).
And you’ve really got to know / dissect the film to “get” what I’m about to type here - I am very adept at breaking that barrier (in very short order) . . . my wife might tell you that I’m really not happy until I can actually make them cry. She’s said it a couple of times, and frankly I’m too fucking scared to ask if she’s serious and too damn old to want to lay on a therapist’s couch for several years figuring that one out if I were to ultimately agree with her.
So I guess I’ll keep leaving them, and a bit of havoc, in my wake.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@Pavlov
Then I’ll be sure to tell Mothra to headline at a club near you. She loves to cry.
…
Haven’t seen “Closer”. Now I must.
,
I put up Candy Barr cause:
She’s famous round here.
She landed Texas Monthly and The New York Times.
She was possibly the best known cute gunslinger stripper and may have originated the look.
She worked Jack Ruby’s clubs and hung out with his semi-famous clientele - and with half the legislature. Jack Ruby picked her hair color.
Natural bod and tits.
She shot one of her 4 husbands, and he claimed at the trial that he deserved it.
She dated gangsters.
She went to prison for marijuana.
Various older relative of mine saw her do that sort of stripper act, in the 50’s, and thought it was incredibly cool. It must have been, for the times, and the locale. I think even some local Rotary Clubs and the like hired her for stag nights. That generation would brag about it. I saw some film as a high schooler and was, shall we say, puzzled. Not that she’s not a good stripper - just not ripped by modern standards, and overdressed for the Rivera or a hippy swimming hole. Or for strip clubs of the 60’s and after. But times had changed.
She (supposedly under some duress) made a porn film (Smart Alec, B/W, 1951, about 20 minutes) that was so widely shown at stag parties that it made her a star. (She was I think 16 or so during filming, by some accounts was drugged; was possibly working as either a cigarette girl at a club, or a prostitute, or both. When she agreed to do the film, she later claimed, she had less than $1 to her name.) The film was a nationwide mainstay of bachelor parties - I would hear people talk of having seen it the night before they married. Therefore some people credit her for being the first true porn star, and for making the adult industry aware of the potential of a star system. Dunno if true or how true, but the film gets some mentions.
Because of the film, and her stage fame, she worked in Vegas as a headliner with music composed for her routines only.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2006/01/04/arts/candy-barr-70-stripper-and-star-of-1950s-stag-film-dies.html
http://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/candy-barr/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candy_Barr
Parts of Smart Alec are streamed free, just google it.
I am going to buy a lottery ticket. If I hit the jackpot, I will add the worst performing movie to all my screens, then buy a bajillion tickets to see it. Then I will win forever.
Everybody quick! Update your lineup! Or don’t, because I’m in 17th place!
@Moose I’m hoping the other 8 people that are in 32nd place forget to update so I can move up the ranks. Why do we keep bumping this thread?
/giphy doh
@Moose I just updated based on last night’s #'s and went heavy on a Snowden(ish) hedge (actually considered playing all Snowden, even though I have a strong feeling I’m going to dislike the film personally [I didn’t get to see a press only screening of it like I do many films]) - I don’t think BJB is gonna pull it in and Snowden’s #'s from last night are shockingly good.
This week is freaking TOUGH - My picks this week may knock me way down. Hard to predict what will happen with this lineup . . . I’m starting to love / hate (obsess about) this game . . . and I see no way to make it my bitch, so that’s a plus, as I most certainly have no fear of ever becoming bored with the damn thing . . .
@Pavlov Couldn’t decide on staying power of “Sully”, even tho it’s well-liked. Hoping “BJB” can crack 13M, but I’m afraid to check results.
Not trying to win, but seeing how well I can do only selecting ‘good’ movies (so no “Suicide Squad” or “When the Bough Breaks”) even if it was a good play.
@Moose damn I wish I’d taken the time to review things this morning, Snowden is a surprise provided it’s not front-loaded and BJB did less well than I’d hoped. Hopefully for my sake BJB will turn out to have not appealed to the Thursday crowd and will recover on the weekend.
@jbartus It is going to be rough on most everyone save a very lucky few . . . there’s no telling how this weekend will shake out. Huge props to @medz for the giant balls to roll with an all Snowden line-up, and @MrGlass is looking good on a variation of a play I considered making if one was betting that both Sully won’t hold up and BJB bombs (could very easily happen). @carl669 and others with the double Sully hedge might be sitting pretty on Monday though . . .
Just a really, really hard week to pick 'em.
@Pavlov I almost went double Sully but BJB was looking so good last night. Sully kicked ass last night so I don’t see it bombing.
@Pavlov
/giphy Huge cojones
@Moose Ha ha ha, 17th place! I’m in 16th place. I win!
@jbartus somehow I totally missed snowden.
I’m hoping some people forgot to pick anything.
@sammydog01 4th place… at least until Week 3 self destructs on me.
@compunaut
have a theory that people look at the election, then they wanna take a shower and go see Sully.
1st batch of overnights are in and have Snowden tracking slightly lower than expected /predicted. It looks (right now) like it is shaping up to be a repeat weekend to fly with Captain Sully . . .
@Pavlov where do you find this information? BoxOffice Pro seems to be lagging behind.
@jbartus
https://deadline.com/2016/09/bridget-jones-blair-witch-snowden-sully-weekend-box-office-renee-zellweger-1201820827/
9:21PM (Pacific FRI) update is from real time tracking estimators - they’re usually quite accurate - their source is apparently a pretty good automated sample set of theaters they pull data from (or so my guy at AMC says). They account for real numbers from East coast late nights (actual receipts) also.
@Pavlov ouch, this week is gonna hurt bad. If the numbers in that article hold I’m looking at under 60M for the week. Bye bye 4th place!
I have a question…
HOW THE FUCK IS SUICIDE SQUAD STILL A GOING CONCERN?! xD
@jbartus 13-35 year old males, without a date.
@Pavlov
And people who won’t go unless a theater is pretty much empty.
@Pavlov @f00l it was just… not a good movie. Both myself and my brother and his girlfriend hated it, and we’re all in that 13-35 demographic!
@jbartus
Yeah but I ain’t seen it. And if I were gonna see it in a theater, I’d wait till now.
There are always a few.
@jbartus
Then it is safe to assume you all (can) get laid.
@f00l save your money! Watch it for free on FX in 6 months.
@Pavlov Good to know, thanks.
@jbartus
Huh you want me to wait.
Ok.
Everyone who is ahead of me by the end of Sat nite, please go fuck yourselves.
I’m just thinking of your welfare and happiness here. No offense.
@medz you are exempted. Am jealous, man.
@f00l
/giphy Joseph Gordon-Levitt is a delight
@jbartus Actually it does look like a bloodbath for everybody this week if the estimates in the article @Pavlov provided hold, so I might not be totally screwed.
I’m looking at 56.8, @harrison’s looking at 54.8, @heartny 47.4*, @carl669 65, @compunaut 48.4, @cj0e 50, @conandlibrarian 47.9*, @darksaber99999 65.5*, @dashcloud 35.3*, @ELUNO 55.6, @f00l 61.7, @hollboll 50, @JasonToon 50.4*, @djslack 57.3, @medz 60.8, @MEHcus 59.8, @CaptAmehrican (?) 43.2*, @Mehrocco_Mole 62.4*, @Moose 48.8, @MrGlass 52.9, Panda† 28.8, Plexiplex† 60.1, @ChadP 48.4, @RiotDemon 47.7, @sammydog01 48.9, @Dave 48.8, Theater Theater† 42, Trailer Park† 42.6
*- Used following values for movies not in that article:
Bad Moms - 1.5M
Sausage Party - 1.2M
No Manches Frida - 1.4M
Based estimates on box office trends for this week and values last weekend to guess at trending value.
†- Anyone know whose these are?
All in all it’s a bit of a shit show this week. I didn’t even bother with theaters that were clearly leftovers from League Season 1.
Edit: Note that none of this takes into account the Best Performer bonus or the Perfect Lineup bonus.
@jbartus Damn you Bridget Jones’s Baby! I’m putting you up for adoption!
@jbartus I’ve been busy all day and glanced at your post a number of hours ago before I left the house - I didn’t see my tag listed with a dollar amount so I figured I was totally screwed. Wasn’t until just now that I pulled up the standings and see I may have hit bonus. I do not know how I got this lucky this week. I agonized over these picks for three days, and I was thrown a huge curve-ball and completely switched my line-up (every damn screen) after Friday morning’s numbers and final projections came out - I was switching plays right up to 5 minutes before deadline. The only thing I accounted for in my decision making which used anything remotely resembling something related to “skill” was plugging Snowden all the way down to 6 mil with BJB completely tanking (with all others at projected) and running that combo through a spreadsheet to see the results. At noon on Friday I was certain that I would be thrown out of the top 10 this week. I was that afraid of this week’s picks which I had made. I hope the numbers improve for everyone this weekend - and it is really early in the season, it truly is anyone’s game.
As an aside, I am so pleased to see Kubo kicking ass. It is such a wonderful film.
@Pavlov uh… I could swear I did yours! I did at one point have an ‘oh shit’ moment wherein I realized that I was only accounting for Friday figures on the three movies people used that weren’t mentioned in your article and had to go back to recalculate so maybe it came when I was working on yours and I forgot to write yours down… sorry about that! You were looking at 69.5 without bonuses based on those numbers which has gone well for you. I have no idea what FML is doing that has given me a boost over 60M though…
Edit: Actually I just found it I think, they’re using the numbers as usual from pro.boxoffice.com which are higher than the deadline.com’s numbers by a bit.
I’ve managed to move up two spots because one person only put two movies in their theatre and then the 7 other people still didn’t play. So yay for not being dead last after starting in week 3!
I don’t know why I bothered putting Blair Witch in my theatre because I knew the franchise was so outdated. That was why I skipped Bridget’s Baby.
@RiotDemon October would have been a better time to release Blair Witch. September? Just another meh movie.
@ELUNO I think it would of still been a meh movie in October.
@RiotDemon But it wouldn’t just be another meh movie. It would be one of the few meh Halloween movies.
@RiotDemon if it makes you feel any better those people aren’t actually playing, they’re leftover cineplexes from last season where the owner hasn’t bothered to select new movies so it keeps their selections from week to week with movies gradually falling off of the list as they leave first run theaters.
@jbartus I guess that’s good news because now it will take longer for me to end up in last place
@heartny I suppose that depends on how you measure last place
@jbartus Wherever I end up, it’s probably last place
@heartny Our universe will be divided by zero if you finish first then!
/giphy divide by zero
So it looks like I managed to keep 4th place somehow… go me!
@jbartus But they still don’t have official numbers yet. You might go down all the way to dead last!
/giphy last
@ELUNO not a chance Losing 4th maybe, dead last no way.
@jbartus If they don’t roll Wednesday and Thursday’s Snowden numbers into the final tally, I’m gone. I understood from reading the official rules that revenue would be applied as reported by Box Office and technically the film didn’t open until Friday (Wed was a special showing and Thur a preview, and advance revenue that was reported on a weekend final tally had been allowed previously) . . . Huge discussions / debate about the issue on chatter.
@Pavlov Right now I’m wishing foreign results somehow applied. BJB did awesome in the UK
@compunaut UK #'s = Colin Firth
@Pavlov I know, I know. I just thought the man-hunks were going pump the numbers in the US as well
/giphy pump the man hunks
Worst box office results of the year
Week 4 chat . . .
If I had to choose today (Mon, 9-19 @7:33 PM Central), I’d go 1 Stork, 3 Sully, and filler - probably 2 Snowden and 2 Kubo.
I don’t think M7 is going to pull it in near what they estimate. Reboots are hard, especially with the 1960 film being so popular. Interesting trivia, M7 1960 is the second most often shown movie in broadcast TV history - the first being The Wizard of Oz .
@Pavlov Wow, M7 is way overvalued. The original is very well loved, which is why I think this one wont be loved as much.
I personally don’t like Storks based on the trailer, so it will be a hard week to choose from…
@Pavlov I doubt I can do much worse trusting your predictions than the last set I trusted for week 3.
@dashcloud I wouldn’t trust any pick this early, I was throwing it out there for shits and giggles and to see if it matched up later in the week with it coming so early in the week.
@Pavlov I might go 5x Sully, 3x Don’t Breathe; can’t get past the cost of Storks.
OTOH, my picks haven’t been worth shit since wk1
@compunaut Thursday night’s numbers on Friday morning will be very interesting / telling this week.
@compunaut I’ve started leaving a pick in the bracket in case something happens (knock wood) and I can’t get back to it on Friday AM before lock-down. Right now it is 2x Stork, 1 Sully, 1 Sno, 1 BW, 1 Kubo and 2 HoHW - a complete “safety” pick. I’m sure it will change.
I’m continuously impressed with Kubo at the low end and HoHW is actually still adding theaters. Both amazing performers for the price in game.
Revision - I don’t think Thursday’s numbers on Friday AM are going to help much, and the real story this week will be 1) do you believe M7 will hit projection (if it did , it would be higher than any previous open for a western or a Denzel anchor) and 2) Theater counts on everything else, except BJB. Storks projected box office has gone up every week for the last three weeks . . .
@Pavlov
Where are you getting theater counts for new releases? And Info for records for opening weekends by genre?
Is there an easy way to get not only theater counts, but screen counts also?
Apologies if I’m being lazy and should FO, or you have already answered this.
@f00l
I pick up the phone and call my buddy at AMC. You can start with this thread:
http://fantasymovieleague.com/posts/944/trendzone-examining-theater-counts-part-i
I read all the trades for work. Read Variety online (or scan it) for movies you’re interested in - best resource.
Interchangeable for the most part, they flow hand in hand when it is made available.
@Pavlov
Thx
@f00l It’s starting to look like you might actually care. YOU PROMISED THAT YOU WEREN’T GOING TO TRY TO WIN
At least that’s how I remember it
@compunaut
I could claim to bend time. Then that promise would have been made in the future - say 3016. So QuitYerWhining.
Not buying it?
Then let’s go with: any “trying” I do is likely to be desultory at best, destructive at worst.
I might look at some data. Then try not to do something incredibly stupid. Then know i likely just did something incredibly stupid. All while purposefully or lazily knowing next to nothing.
This is exactly how I play Famtasy Football. I presume my season’s results here will be very similar to my award-winning performances there.
Fear Not. Have Faith.
@f00l
/youtube Freedom 90
@compunaut
That song goes on and on. But those supermodels are so insanely beautiful that I kinda don’t care.
@f00l
/youtube lip sync battle freedom
@RiotDemon
Oh.
Thx.
@f00l she hasn’t aged much, has she!
Anyone wanna guess how they will price SW Rogue One when it finally pops?
@f00l prob in the 7’s or 8’s. Or they’ll break it up like they did for Suicide Squad. They did separate Friday/ Saturday/ Sunday with different costs.
@f00l Here’s a bit from the FAQ 101 page by one of the super-dedicated players:
Special Case: Super Movie X
There is one special scenario for the 15 movies to pick from, called Super Movie X in the Chatter. Sometimes a particular movie is expected to bring in so much revenue, it is broken up into its daily values (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday) instead of its full weekend.
For example, during Week 12 of the Fall Season FML split the opening of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2” into daily values. That meant that you could pick Friday, Saturday, or Sunday for the Hunger Games as its own screen for your Cineplex, and at a combined total of $1,523 you had to choose how (if at all) to use “Mockingjay” wisely. The next Super Movie X expected dominate the box office in its opening weekend is “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”.
@dashcloud I want to see this Super Movie X, when does it come out?
@jbartus Right after Super Movie IX
@jbartus
TPB then, for me; unless it’s truly really Super.
Please note, I don’t pirate films unless they are literally not to be released otherwise, in like forever or something. A certain Rolling Stones tour film by Robert Frank that I saw at the Whitney Museum decades ago comes to mind. (Of course, now, that film is a period piece, not that scandalous, and you can watch it on YouTube.)
Or unless they tell me it’s a “Super Movie”, with that phrase in the film title, and I think They Lie.
@Pavlov Any sources for Thursday numbers yet?
@jbartus Not yet - Fandango advance sales for Mag 7 are strong, but Storks keeps climbing . . . M7 has a few very poor reviews that have popped online in the last few hours though as the Fri AM papers have gone to press. If by some miracle M7 has a 3mil Thurs I’ll change my line-up, but right now I’m leading with 2x Stork, the rest TBD - waiting on hard numbers and final screen counts for the rest of the pack.
M7 may also be really hampered by the gas shortages in the south where Denzel typically plays well.
Decisions decisions…
@jbartus I was stuck in a meeting this morning and didn’t get to make any adjustments or look at any Thursday numbers - I locked in a hedge play late last night and that is what I’m stuck with of course . . . at least it is a good thing I didn’t leave them blank.
If I could go back in time I may have stepped away from the pack and played Sully (x max screens) with filler. Storks not having a Thursday number scares me . . . but even absent that number, 2 Storks, 3 BJB, 2 Snowden, 1 DB would have probably been a better hedge than what I’m locked with.
@Pavlov I think Storks was going to have a weak Thursday no matter what, it’s a family film which pretty much kills weekday performance, especially for the premier. Either way you and I have the same lineup so you can rest easy upon your throne knowing that whatever else may happen I won’t be gaining on you!
@Pavlov I played the ‘max Sully’ hand. Didn’t have time to look for Thurs numbers either, but if Storks was N/A I probably wouldn’t have changed it
@jbartus I’ve been slammed all day and didn’t notice. At least we can’t do worse than the other . . . but I have a sneaking suspicion that the play won’t be kind to either one of us come Monday morning.
@compunaut Cool! Good luck! Storks was pretty much absent from all reporting, although I swear I remember seeing a 175k range number - which was like a ridiculous $70 a screen (IIRC). But animated features don’t play well on Thursday nights . . . my worry is it is going to tank. Hotel Trans. 2 did really, really well in this same weekend slot last year, but it had the double whammy of being animated and Halloweeny. This one may just be a weenie. But, Fandango still reports strong advances.
@Pavlov It looks like the reviews, and word of mouth, for Storks are/is improving.
To my detriment, as usual.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@jbartus
I voted for kids this week. I will rule or crash. Hoping to crack the top 20.
(Forgot to do week 2picks)
@jbartus Went with Storks, 3x Sully, Snowden, Blair Witch, 2x Kubo this week.
@jbartus everyone is tagging replies to you… WHAT DID YOU DO?!
@compunaut I can’t say I wasn’t considering that play. It’ll either be genius or leave money on the table depending on how Storks does.
@Pavlov if Storks flops we can cry into our beers together. If it cheers you up any Storks got favorable reviews during a trailer review with my brother’s girlfriend last week. (We were checking out upcoming releases to figure out what we wanted to see) It did 435K last night per BoxOffice Pro which I think is damned healthy for an animated movie on a Thursday, time will tell.
@fool Bonne chance! I’m really counting on Storks soaring this week. I also managed to spend my whole budget which is, I think, a first.
@dashcloud I had Blair Witch in my cineplex at one point but I just couldn’t trust it. Snowden will be interesting to see.
@jbartus I had 2x Blair Witch last week on opening weekend- what a waste!
@compunaut As it sits now - Fri matinee & east coast Fri night #'s put Storks (projected) @ under $20 mil for the weekend. I’m so freaking toast. Ugh.
Addendum to above post: Top 10 films based off of east coast late nights; figures to be updated on Saturday (these are all projected three day cumulative numbers):
I’m still toast -
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Blah.
Well, Storks was for the birds . . . congrats to those that continued to fly with Sully.
Looking forward to week 5!
@Pavlov
we are betrayed by the children to whom we have devoted out lives
@Pavlov I want to cry. How did M7 manage that… argh!
@jbartus Nothing makes much sense this weekend. Both M7 and Storks opened with a Cinema Score of A-, both are tracking within a percentage point on RT on reviews (vacillating between 63 and 64% positive when I last checked).
M7’s open is going to be the second best for a western, and Storks should have pulled 29-35 million based on every damn indicator. As it is, Storks is opening like a B- scored adult film, and not following ANY previous animated historical trend (curve).
I don’t get it - and neither do a lot of analysts - and after last week many people are wondering what the actual fuck is going wrong . . . but to quote Deadline: “Nonetheless, as one distribution executive asserted after last weekend’s tracking mayhem, “The box office is not broken”.
My only hope is Sat and Sun matinee bring Storks up. With the cooler weather on Sunday invading the Midwest with rain, it may have a chance.
I have a feeling week 5 is going to be even worse, and I’m anticipating I’ll step away from traditional predictors and just plug my own numbers in a spreadsheet and play my gut, which I did on week 3 when I had much better success.
I’m surprised I’ve survived in the top 10 in our league - but the weekend ain’t over yet. I’m looking at freefalling from being in the top 100 out of all players (week one starters) game-wide to (right now) being 612th out of 23473.
This week really hurts - right in my balls.
As I said when I joined, "I’m probably going to really suck at this . . . " — the issue for me is how the game prices (overprices!) new releases, and I’m getting the hang of it, but damn.
Plus, my being slammed at work and missing the opportunity to tweak screens on Fri AM really messed my shit up.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
TL;DR - I get your feels man, I want to cry in my drink a little bit too.
@jbartus
i recall a quote
"no one knows anything"
certainly i don’t
@Pavlov I am just so flabbergasted.
Looks like we had an influx of members in week 4. I believe there was around 50ish people when I joined for week 3 and now there’s 70+.
Hooray!
@RiotDemon Looks like you may win week 4 in our league!
@Pavlov @RiotDemon Yeah; I had some hope for top spot, but Sully lost some steam last night/today
@Pavlov Woohoo!
Out of 315 week 3 starters, I’m 29… out of all week 4 theaters I’m 105 out of 22,676.
I have no idea what I’m doing.
/giphy beginners luck
@RiotDemon Congrats on winning week 4 in our league! You missed the Perfect Cinema by only one screen!!!
@RiotDemon Congrats!
@Pavlov that’s pretty cool. What good guessing I did
Fyi, I don’t really expect a repeat, haha
Week 5 chat -
This week’s pool to choose from leaves me feeling kind of “meh” - anyone else?? I understand it isn’t a blockbuster release weekend, but the pricing seems a little high to me on a few new titles (like maybe they’ve got [guessed] the multiplier wrong).
@Pavlov Kind of like last week. But then I stupidly decided to switch for those stupid storks… I’ll go with my gut this week…
@Pavlov I watched the trailer for Deepwater Horizon the other day. I thought it looked pretty good. Miss P I think will be pretty popular. Overpriced? Not sure.
Storks, guys? Well, thanks for the #2 spot.
/giphy lol storks
Didn’t have a chance to update my picks per my maximized analysis this morning; sigh. Perhaps there won’t be that much difference. We’ll see Sun/Mon.
@compunaut I totally just put some random guesses in case I forgot to look again. I forgot.
@RiotDemon me too… better than nothin’
@RiotDemon Me three. I was kicking myself when I realized it and was driving at noon…
I will surely drop to the lower half of our roster.
@ELUNO My know-nothing projection: @Pavlov & @darksaber99999 will each make ~$62M and retain top 2 spots. @MEHcus will win our league w/ almost $64M and move up to 3rd.
You’ll be just over $50M; I doubt you’ll drop out of Top Ten
/giphy Top Ten
@compunaut If you ain’t first, you are last.
/giphy There is no Top Ten
@ELUNO
/giphy You ain’t never been first
@compunaut
I added the usual random guesses based on a complete lack of comprehension.
Wondering if I have the energy to spreadsheet this and keep up with it. Or would gain anything if it did?
Has anyone else tried the app? Is that sw all fucked up, it is it just me?
@compunaut
/giphy "I’ll get you next time gadget"
@f00l Spreadsheet? App? SW? What are these things you speak of?
@compunaut
Spreadsheet that handled price, # of theaters, last week’s take, historical projections for that actor or director of genre. @pavlov type stuff
Then I could go ahead and make some random guesses.
App: there are android and iOS apps.
“Fantasy Movie League”
The iOS app is sorta tolerable at best? Or I’m clueless? If you can use the app to watch trailers, I must be too stupid for that.
Haven’t tried the android app yet.
@f00l Sounds suspiciously like more than random guesses I think you’re trying to win.
I poke around for 5min on FML Insider & Research Vault, try to guess % dropoff from last week, then maximize box office based on FML bux (there should probably be calculus involved, but my brain is too calcified for that).
Oh, and Cinemeh Art House won’t show crap films regardless of their $$ making potential (I’m talking about you, Suicide Squad and When the Bough Breaks). That helps reduce choices/complications.
/giphy this ain’t rocket science
@compunaut That totally looks like someone farting fire.
@ELUNO Maybe a robot farting fire.
After a jalapeno-eating contest
@compunaut
Let me point out that you are doing far more work than me on this.
Re trash films. Why the fuck not? UHF channels still exist. $$$ still exists.
If I followed your pholosophy I’d prob be all European and Boring and Pretentious and Important, and I’d lose. And my films prob would be all that great either.
If people wanna spend $ and look at Harley Quinn’s ass, good by me. .
@compunaut
@ELUNO
@RiotDemon
Best Goat Ever pwn’d us.
Goated us. Completely.
The action is in the voting thread for Oct 2016. come look.
@f00l I feel like I’m one of the only people that didn’t hate Suicide Squad.
@RiotDemon
I didn’t hate the trailer.
Might see the rest of it on a screen near me someday. A laptop screen.
@f00l You’re talking about software & building a spreadsheet yet accuse me of ‘doing work’? Iron-knee.
And I’m OK with ‘light’ entertainment: animation, horror, rom-com, superheroes. I’m fine with boys (or girls) lusting after Scarlet Johansson as Black Widow - cuz the movies have been good. If Suicide Squad was decent, then Harley’s sweet little behind is welcome; otherwise, not so much. Won’t condone making junk when it’s not much (if any) harder to make a decent film instead. My theater, my rules. We’ll see where I finish the season with that ‘handicap’.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@RiotDemon Given the fact that they are still showing it, I feel like @f00l and I are the only people that haven’t watched it… I don’t like going alone to the movies and they wouldn’t let me spider in with me
@ELUNO
You already dumped Sweet Baby Tarantula for Hussy Spider?
No wonder you spend a lotta time alone.
@f00l Well, my SBT IS a spider. But it ain’t no Hussy!
@compunaut
That’s cool. Do your theater with your standards.
Personally, I’d put a “new remake” of Battlefield Fucking Earth on every fucking screen if I could win a week with it.
Re quality: Not sure it is all that easy to make a good film instead of a bad one. My first go-to is shitty scripts or script probs. But good films have been made - I think, not a historian - outta scripts with one bitter drunken or coked writer or non-writer after another putting a paw on the script.
Then you think too much action, or too much stupid action, too much cgi, whatever. But…whose fault? Director? Studio? Producers? Such a bad script that they had no choice? IT politics? Some power asshole who fell in love with “effects”?
Bad editing? That’s a complicated story. And didn’t some directors steal the prints or rushes or lock themselves into the editing room? And in normal filmmaking, isn’t everyone w money or power is gonna try to have a say in the edit?
Budgets. Weather. Political probs. Subtle sabotage. Sulking or deranged or drugged or hateful cast crew director editors writers producers. People who just want their moment of glory and don’t give a damned about how if the thing worked as a whole it might be v good. Where does it end? Last min re-do’s because competition or bad word of mouth or bad testing. Just go ahead and gut the film, cause some test audience wanted predictable pap.
And endless other shit. It’s a wonder they ever get made.
Perhaps not so easy.
@ELUNO fuck it. I love going alone. During the morning when hardly anyone is there to ruin the movie for me. Anytime I go with other people, they can only go in the evenings when it is busier and you have to deal with the ever increasing jerks that look on their bright phones constantly or that love to talk throughout. If I had friends that would/could go to 11am showings during the week, I’d enjoy going with them.
Being at home, I don’t care if people talk because if we miss something, we can always rewind it.
@f00l I’d watch a remake of Battlefield Earth.
@RiotDemon Meh. If I’m going alone I just prefer to wait for them to come out on bluray and watch them at home. I have a decent home theater setup (now with Atmos thanks to meh!) so I can either watch it alone without jerks interrupting, or it can be easier to schedule to watch it with someone else. (And cheaper. Plus 99% off pop-corn. But no kettle corn. Eww.)
@ELUNO but is your screen as big??
@RiotDemon It is not as big, but I am definitely closer to it.
/giphy perspective
@RiotDemon
You are braver than me.
I never saw the Travolta project. Too squeamish I guess.
@f00l squeamish? The movie isn’t gory. (From what I remember)
@RiotDemon
I might not get squeamish about films when I’m stuffing my plex and trying to win.
But I might get get all squeamish about quality when I’m watching. This squeamish is not related or effects-simulated blood and mayhem. More about bored/quit watching/never finish.
I heard Battlefield Earth was awful, even by the standards of “bad films”. But no sure knowledge. Perhaps word of mouth be wrong. What would I know?
@f00l I don’t remember it being… Good. I don’t remember hating it as much as everyone else though. I want to watch it again to see what time has done to it.
Fuck me. I was up early today and was all “I’m gonna set up my FML picks” and then made breakfast and forgot. RIP my FML standing.
@jbartus you didn’t put anything on Monday?
@jbartus
I have started doing a “didn’t think about this at all” pick set Mon or Tues.
Then the universe won’t completely shit on me on the weekend if I forget to update to “only slightly less stupid” on Thurs or Fri am.
@f00l I looked at the movies last week, carefully filled out my theater, and came in 59th. I call that completely shit on. Fuck you, universe.
@sammydog01
It’s possible that you have to be a little bit awesome in order for the stupid Monday pick strategy to do its thing.
/giphy what can I say
@sammydog01 I think you’re awesome. But it seems to me that many opening films are priced too high for their actual box office. Gotta wait until their FML bux ratio is higher.
My best result was going “max Sully” during its third week, skipping new movies altogether. Probably should have done it again this week
@compunaut
Yes we have see a bunch of too expensive newbies,seems to my complete amateur asshole brain that doesn’t even read USA Today.
@RiotDemon @f00l I usually do it Thursday night then follow up Friday morning but I slept early Thursday.
So, did most people go with Miss Peregrine or Deepwater Horizon as their pick for the week? (Or did you continue with a theater full of Sully)?
@dashcloud
I think 1 MP 1 DH 1 Sully and the rest whatever cheapies I could afford.
Fuck that budget tho. IRL most of these theaters would flea markets real quick.
@dashcloud Miss P was too rich for me. Didn’t think to try @Darksaber99999 's “max Sully” or @MEHcus ’ “max Mag7” approach; this is where real math might come in handy.
/giphy real math
Friday afternoon: Damn, I forgot to change my lineup. My picks were terrible, I’m completely blowing it this season…
Saturday afternoon: Oh how 'bout that, I’m in second place this weekend. Still blowing it this season though…
Last week I bet on kids and was a huge loser.
So I dump storks. And now @carl669 is killing with storks.
I am really bad at this.
And the public sux.
@f00l Seriously. Storks?!?! Fuck you @carl669 for going for storks and winning. I think I will start throwing a dart and start making my selections that way.
@ELUNO
My storks was last week. They screwed me then. So I banished them.
And now they reward @carl669 for being in the kiddie ward for the second week.
Don’t worry, my choices are busy proving I have no biz being here this week.
@f00l I had a Storks week last week as well and they left me completely plucked.
@f00l @ELUNO i was King this week you know.
@carl669 eh, I guess you deserved it. But next week you are going down!
@carl669
Just behead your theater.
You snuck out of the castle with your ceremonial sword, didn’t you?
I can’t believe I’m still top 10 after coming in 59th last week.
Do not forget to set your theaters people, it can be fatal!
@jbartus Actually, if you’re in the top 20 or so on the Mediocre team, it’s completely safe to forget- nothing bad could happen
@dashcloud trying to move up the ranks by subversion?
@jbartus i think I’m slowly moving up the ranks because even more people dropped out.
@RiotDemon
They need to remake Murder, Inc, in honor of that strategy.
Y’all all plz forget to choose, or cancel your lineups before the lockdown. Thx.
First 4 weeks: 2 top 10, 2 top 20. Feeling pretty good.
Then week 5: 55. So far this week: 45. Sigh
/giphy sad trombone
@compunaut
New goal: Lowest rank with less that $50 bux left over. I’m at 40th this week. Can anyone do better? (OK, had $56 left over, will try to nail it next week.)
@sammydog01 how can you see what rank you were for the week?
@RiotDemon There should be a place to click on league. You can check it by week or overall.
@RiotDemon
some things are easy using the app, other things diff or impossible. Seeing the weekly ranks in one of the things the app makes easy.
Btw I still suck.
@sammydog01 I can’t figure out how to switch to weekly, even if switch to non mobile view.
@f00l I don’t have the app. I just use the website.
@RiotDemon You don’t see this?
@ELUNO wow. I feel like an idiot. I was questioning those numbers but then I just let it go.
@RiotDemon I didn’t know you were a fan of:
/giphy "let it go"
@RiotDemon
WHY don’t you have the app?
I’m told that a truly good life is made of deep commitment to many (both random and targeted) Apps Of Kindness.
Don’t you want a good life?
@f00l
/giphy "good life"
@ELUNO my hair doesn’t do that. Lies, I tell ya.
@RiotDemon Are you saying life isn’t like Disney movies?! No more Hakuna Matata for me…
Monday is Columbus Day. Govt offices, Post Offices, courts, banks etc closed. But most ppl prob work.
So is this an extended weekend or no?
@f00l No.
By some miracle, I won this week.
@katylava
By some predictable non-miracle, I lost.
@katylava Yay! I came in 31st.
@katylava congrats! I got 23rd this week.
You can all beat up on me. I forgot.
@f00l again?!?
@ELUNO
I was doing insurance stuff last night waaaay too late.
@f00l you really need you just pick random stuff on Monday from now on.
@RiotDemon
Meant to and forgot. Was still recovering from my State Fair sore feet and sunburn.
What I need to do is to set several alarms.
Ok set 2 alarms. Wonder if that will help.
@f00l set alarms fort Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday morning
/giphy I pity the @f00l
@medz
You found the correct response.
/giphy FTW
I forgot again too.
@jbartus I didn’t forget and I’ll probably still do worse than you.
@jbartus doesn’t it keep whatever you picked last week until the movie drops out?
@RiotDemon Yes indeed. I have been beaten by people that forgot to change their picks.
@RiotDemon yeah but that didn’t do so well. :|
@jbartus pfft. I picked my movies and only did 7million more than you.
Lots of low scores so far.
I got destroyed this weekend. I bet I will be dropping out of the top 10 after this.
@conandlibrarian I dropped from 20 to 31 in the week 3 starter league which is 300+ people.
Hope I was able to move up a spot or two this week.
@dashcloud
When i did well I was stuck at 22. When I did badly I was stuck at 22.
Stupid Max Steel. I knew you were bad but you were priced accordingly. What else are kids watching?! Now watch it do a Storks and do amazing next week when I don’t pick it.
Noooooo! I dropped to 3rd place! :’(
@ELUNO
Well you’re sure to still be whupping me.
So shaddup and quit yer whining.
@f00l Everyone is whoopie cushioning you. Me going to 3rd place breaks my honor. I am a honorless man now.
@f00l My honor might be back!
/giphy honor
Buoyed back up to 5th this week!!!
Ouch- it looks like forgetting a lineup (and 6 of my picks from last week no longer being shown) caused me to drop 4 places.
Damn you @ignorant!
I did absolutely terrible. I had no idea Tyler Perry movies were so popular. I guess I should of read some insights this week.
@RiotDemon Tyler Perry movies are almost always bad, but almost always very popular.
I read the most horrible things about Jack Reacher, I should of known it would do well.
The original Ouija from 2014 opened to shit reviews and over $19 million its first weekend. Mike Flanagan’s prequel, Ouija: Origin of Evil is over 80% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, garnered rave reviews from just about every fucking horror site there is, yet it only opened to $13 million and change, just narrowly edging out Ben Affleck’s autistic assassin flick for a pitiful third place.
So Boo, Bitches! A Madea Halloween has officially killed my number one spot.
Fucking. Madea.
Oh well. There’s always next week.
@Pavlov we expected a sequel to a panned film to do well?
@Pavlov I also thought Ouija would do better, which is why I removed one Madea for an extra Ouija… bad move…
@Pavlov Expected Ouija would do $14-18M (originally had same play as you), but finally picked 2x Boo cuz I thought it had a better than even shot at bonus. I caught a break with Boo’s stupid success.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@jbartus
The expectation I (and many others) held, was that it wouldn’t play out as a sequel. Ouija had a lot of things going for it (ad blitz, reviews, only true horror film in wide release, etc.) - and 18 or 20 out of the top 100 players (IIRC) had the same play as me or the same play with Storks as filler. Even with Madea playing so well over many expectations, if Ouija had simply touched projected numbers it would have been the best play.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I did less terribly than usual. And I did remember to pick, took about 1-1/2 secs to think it over like the clueless one I happen to be.
So I moved up a few spots. The people I caught up with prob forgot to pick.
Unwarranted optimism! Yeah!
@f00l Where do you rank in the Mediocre league?
@compunaut
Are the final weekend #'s in yet? At this moment I am #18.
(Forgot to do picks twice, which is my excuse for everything.)
My name is on ly cinema.
People should put their names on their multiplexes so we know who needs harassment.
I really thought people would go see the Galifianakis thing.
They didn’t.
Dropped 11 spots.
@darksaber99999 Zach has not had a good October, at least from a reviewer standpoint. Will he keep getting paid to make less-than-mediocre films?
Picked madea as a joke. My whole cinema was picked because it read as a joke this week (Madea, Madea, Madea, I’m not ashamed, I’m not ashamed, I’m not ashamed, I’m not ashamed, Denial). Didn’t have any idea that Madea would be the number one movie.
Gee, I went from 14 to 9 this week. I have no idea what I picked or why. I guess a lot of people didn’t get their picks in this week. It’s the only explanation.
I was in a meeting and forgot to set my screens. I’m completely toast.
@Pavlov
/giphy good good
@Pavlov Not a very good week for high $$, quality films
@compunaut
Did a quickie random set. Perhaps I’ll gain 1 or 2 spots over someone who forgot.
Still a long way from top 10 tho.
@Pavlov
/giphy hooray!
@Pavlov I’m sorry to hear that- I forgot last week, and apparently only had 2 movies carry over, which was ugly.
@dashcloud Me too. In Atlanta for my son’s wedding.
/giphy domination
@darksaber99999
Congrats to you.
And congrats to @ELUNO, the overall leader at this time.
Personally - My theater sux beyond all recognition.
/giphy it sucks
@darksaber99999 that gif is so disturbing.
@f00l Hooray!!! Although it is way too close and I will for sure drop down… NEVER! I will cheat if I have to!
/giphy bad winner
Thirty-sixth? We’re there even 36 people that remembered to make picks this week?
This Madea movie is having a stupid level of success. It’s not fair!
@jbartus You should have known to play it again this week!
@ELUNO I did… on two screens. I expected it to drop more.
Looks like I went from 9th place to 10th. At least I’m still in the top 10, which is quite a miracle.
Crap, Doctor Strange is HELLA expensive.
@ELUNO you’re not kidding.
@ELUNO it’s a Marvel movie, nuff said.
@ELUNO Weird.
@RiotDemon
@ELUNO
I am so out of it. I have never seen a Marvel film, even at home. (Is Spider-Man marvel? I have never seen a Spider-Man film, only clips.) I have not seen most recent big bucks films. Am behind by 2 Star Trek films.
What am I doing in this league? (Besides living up to uid I mean.)
@f00l yeah, he’s marvel. He was in the Captain America - Civil War film most recently.
@RiotDemon @f00l Spiderman is traditionally a member of The Avengers but missed the first few films because Sony had bought the rights to him way back when and had delusions of making their own films before realizing that a piece of a film like Captain America: Civil War was better than risking more flops, so they made nice with Marvel and he’s back. I rather like the new Spidey.
So is anyone going to choose Dr. Strange? I feel like I should, but it is sooo expensive.
@conandlibrarian I’m not. Went to see it tonight (Thursday) and it was good enough but too expensive to put into a theatre.
@conandlibrarian I’m still crying about it. I don’t know what to do!
@conandlibrarian Next week when it gets cheaper.
@conandlibrarian
I did. “Suicide is painless”.
@ELUNO Crying from first place? No sympathy for you
@f00l You’re thinking of the wrong movie
@compunaut Which makes it more stressful! It was all way easier in my cozy mediocre second place.
@compunaut
*Suicide is painless." I am decribing my theatrical choice strategy, not the film.
Btw did you see my answer in the Niv blame thread about taco trucks?
I found another Salsa Limón truck location. Thursday’s on the west side of Hulen on a shopping/office center just north of the big Hulen bridge over the river and the RR yard.
@f00l I think that’s the Liberty Bank office ‘tower’.
Ha! There’s a food truck in the parking lot on Google Maps! Not positive it’s Salsa Limon; maybe trucks rotate every work day
@compunaut Ah, back to my safe second place
@compunaut Third place?!? What is this insult?!?
@ELUNO That’s what happens when you come in 48th place last week, almost $46M behind the league leaders
@compunaut :’(
People wanted to see Trolls?
/giphy trolls, really?
@darksaber99999 they’ve been merchandising the shit out of that movie. I don’t know what is about, but I’ve been seeing the toys for it forever.
@darksaber99999 Happy Meals had Trolls toys in them. There is Trolls garbage in every store. I saw a men’s necktie with Trolls on it. I refuse to run it in my theater on principle.
@darksaber99999 What is wrong with children?!? So unpredictable with their movies!
@darksaber99999 What do you mean? Trolls is actually getting decent reviews. Unlike, say, Max Steel or Keeping Up with the Jones’. Merchandising & advertising will only get you so far if the film is crap.
@sammydog01 Are you going to skip the next Star Wars movie on principle as well?
@compunaut Yes, if it stars a fuzzy headed troll.
@sammydog01 They already did
@ELUNO
Way way too many Ewok scenes there. That plus the added cgi and “let’s tinker” garbage - esp all the crowd celebrations at all those remote locations near the end - make me quit that movie or mute it once the explosions stop.
Or am I just grumpy? Should there be ewoks in every film? How about an all-ewok Texas Chainsaw Massacre? And ewok Jaws? Ewok Dirty Harry? Ewok Truimph Of The Will?
/giphy ewok
@f00l Ewoks Vs. Godzilla. Just like:
/youtube Bambi Vs Godzilla
@ELUNO
Except that I want the Ewoks to be insanely vicious and win.
@ELUNO But Ewoks are cute.
@f00l YESSSSSS!
@f00l Then what you need is Bambi meets Godzilla Part 4
If Shut In starts to pull anywhere above 6 mil this weekend (and some analysts think it could go 7 or higher), we’re all fucked.
@Pavlov I meant to change the top of my lineup this morning but missed the deadline. Go Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge
Estimated loss ~ $4M
Oooof. I had no idea Trolls was going to do this well for its second week. That’s costing me $10M.
I picked something for this week. But that was on late Tuesday. I just clicked on stuff to fill the slots. No idea what I took.
Perhaps i should have paid attention to some polling data before I chose this week’s films.
@f00l I sometimes read the info, but then I go with my gut anyway. It’s not working out that great except for the one week, lol
@RiotDemon Yeah, my gut sucks…
@RiotDemon
@ELUNO
Was trying to snark about shitty polling data.
I guess my jokes bomb just like the polls. Ha ha.
This time I didn’t bother going w gut. Using the cell phone app - can’t even read the film titles. App sux. just clicked on stuff till the theater was filled.
I used “Pollster’s Winning Strategy”.
Hoo-Boy! I’m a gonna be accurate and precise!
@f00l I use the website on my phone. I can read the titles. Occasionally the website doesn’t let me scroll to the right, but it’s not a big deal.
@RiotDemon
Yeah I use the website on phone some.
I was just shocked and PO’ed for some reason about some national electoral event or other that happened this week. So I didn’t much care about other stuff
All these weeks of playing and I just realized that the league offers estimates of how you are doing really early. Looks like I will do okay.
@conandlibrarian But last week told us not to rely on polling estimates…
@conandlibrarian
@ELUNO
My results suck. W or w/out estimates and forecasts.
I am practically everything and choosing Fantastic Beasts. It just looks so good, I am sure it will be a massive hit.
@conandlibrarian Good luck. I skipped it. Hope to beat my 48th place from last week.
@conandlibrarian I thought the same about Strange MD and I did horrible.
@conandlibrarian I’m guessing $85M or so, but too many bux this week. Finally gonna play Dr Strange.
I have either made a brilliant play or I’m taking myself completely out of the competition we shall have to see
@jbartus We’ll be rooting for you!
@jbartus Many of the highest ranked players made the same or similarly anchored play with only seven or eight of the top forty using a different anchor. I couldn’t adjust picks this morning due to my schedule so I couldn’t account for Thursday night numbers. That happens with a lot of players I’m sure - as a result, IMHO, they really need to rename this to the Friday morning pick your screens ten minutes before lock league. There is no way I can ascertain to lock in reliably earlier in the week (based on game metrics) that will keep you in the running past week five or six. You have to account for Thursday overnights. If you can’t do this, you need to play a variant of the game (like lowest revenue from all screens played, etc.).
I’d like to go on record and state that this isn’t me throwing sour grapes - I’m currently in second place in our league having missed making picks during one week and blowing it big time on Madea weekend. I’m just commenting on my view of the game in the overall sense.
@jbartus Well supposedly Moonlight is expanding available screens by hundreds; if its weekend take can get to 1.5-1.6, it should get the bonus & you’ll be doing well. If Arrival gets the bonus, then not so much.
@Pavlov Do Thursday night numbers really reflect the rest of the weekend? Or just for new releases?
I think the top 5 of the Meh league are trying too hard to actually win. This is supposed to be meh
@compunaut Thursday night numbers are both indicative of a new film’s performance and a pretty reliable indicator of how far a film will drop (% of receipts comparative to week one), especially in weeks two and three - but it holds to a large degree through week five. Monday through Wednesday numbers generally are not overly predicative (to use the word in the logical sense). Nothing is 100%, but those overnight receipts are perhaps the most useful data for this game, IMO.
@Pavlov this week I just couldn’t help not hedging my bets by trying to make a good mix of things, the theater expansion was a huge influence upon my decision and I just hope it pays off, otherwise I’m out of the race I think.
@jbartus expansion?
@compunaut We should have an award for the worst season from someone who actually made picks every week. Go, Meh.
@sammydog01
And I can’t even win that one.
@RiotDemon on Thursday theater counts were published, Moonlight went from 176 theaters to 650. Pricing for a movie is determined using the original counts making Moonlight an almost guaranteed Best Performer (at least in theory) which, on top of what it makes on its own, gets a $2M boost per screen.
@Pavlov BTW, third place here and I know what you mean to some extent, I missed making picks on two weeks one of which I believe we shared and also missed the Boo train.
I should mention that right now it’s looking like I fucked myself cause Shut In is outperforming Moonlight.
I didn’t expect Shut In to be a best performer candidate this week. Strong Sunday matinee sales with females 24-45 could really mess this week up for a lot of people if they turn out - and with the colder weather, they very well may. More than likely, they’ll choose Arrival, since it is really at heart very much a chick flick disguised as a movie about alien life - and with Twitter/FB buzz is driving them to it, things could get interesting.
@Pavlov how can we get Twitter / FB buzz driving them to Moonlight instead?
@jbartus Looks like that play will get both best performer and perfect cinema if last night’s trending holds.
@Pavlov I don’t see the PC listing anywhere just yet but the BP is a lock.
I’m so incredibly happy right now!
@jbartus There were 633 PC’s, you were one of them this week. One week to go - I don’t think I will be able to pick any later than Wednesday night - good luck!
@jbartus congrats on your brilliant play
@katylava thanks! It was a nail biter!
Made an account incredibly late, how do I join the meh league? Tried searching for it, no luck.
edit: nevermind, got it. For mocking purposes, I’m Woland at the Variety.
@Pantheist Welcome!
@Pavlov thanks
@Pantheist GOOD NEWS EVERYONE!
The Winter season of Fantasy Movie League will begin in 2 weeks.
@jbartus exciting times!
@Pantheist
People will forget that [“your theater name” = you] quickly enuf. If you wanna be memorable, put your Meh userid in your theater name.
This makes you a better target.
Welcome, and congrats on having the best excuse for epic failure.
@jbartus
Regarding the winter season:
Fuck me, fuck me, fuck me, I’m fucked. Already.
Just like this season. Aha! So awesome!
@f00l I have found the phone app to be… semi-invaluable
@f00l haha thanks. Slightly over $1000 is my goal.
@jbartus
How semi? Like a truck?
The thing I love best about the app is that you can’t see the titles or any data or reviews or synopsis about the films you pick let alone trailers.
The useful thing about the app if that it’s easy to see how you are doing and read the forums.
I use the app for all my “OH SHIT I forgot to pick” picks especially. It’s fast flying blind.
@f00l I find it handy for reminding me to pick when I forget for one.
Just found out I will most likely be in an area without any reliable Internet (no cell worth a shit either) on Friday due to travel changes that had to be made after Thanksgiving. I may have to make my picks on Wednesday night - which will undoubtedly knock me from the top five at least, maybe even more. Shit happens. So apparently I will live up to being all Meh for this one! Yay!
@Pavlov Do you trust @MrsPavlov to make your picks for you?
@dashcloud Um, hell no. If I’m going down in flames, I’m doing the pickin’. Or not. (Picking that is.)
Btw
Fuck You
to everyone who is beating me.
even tho my disastrous performance is entirely my own doing.
That is all.
@f00l We know you love us
@ELUNO
Outta my grump and dispair mood now.
My theater still sux tho.
@f00l you should have just signed up the second to last week, but too late to make picks for that week. I honestly hope I’m in last place, because otherwise I have nothing to say to the person behind me that isn’t atrocious.
@Pantheist
A lotta people at the bottom keep forgetting to do the picks. I forgot like 2-3 times. This is part of the reason my seasonal take sux so far.
Part of the reason.
@f00l not to rain on your parade but the current #1 missed a couple weeks too.
@jbartus
Thx for the incredible Ego Boost.
but you did the scouting thing so I forgive.
@f00l scouting thing?
@jbartus
Oh shiiiit my brain fused two usernames. Both start with a “j”, both northeaterners.
@JerseyFrank and you.
My reward for posting at stoplights.
I do know the diff. You are the Boston-area resident and Pats nutcase (aka ordinary Pats fan ).
My bad. Pls forgive. Cause you will be prob crush me in this movie league and cause I am stuck rooting for the Cowboys and you might feel some pity about that.
@f00l Umm… Which team is it that has the best record in the NFL? It’s always the Patriots because they have that superhero for their QB, right? (Just teasing @jbartus; don’t troll me.)
@f00l you aren’t stuck rooting for the Cowboys, the Church of Foxborough is accepting of all penitent sinners. Pope Belichick and Brother Brady will welcome you with open arms and embrace you warmly, you need only welcome them into your heart.
@compunaut maybe so but they’ve beaten a lot of meh teams, haven’t beaten the Patriots, and remember that one of those two losses was thanks to an agenda driven suspension keeping our “superhero QB” out of the stadium, never mind off of the field.
Last week! I am pretty sure I will crash and burn and drop down the top 10 list!
Good luck to everyone!
@ELUNO oh I do hope so! My lead is most precarious and it would be ever so accommodating if you would! Invite @Pavlov along for good measure!
/giphy schadenfreude
@jbartus Oh no! I am taking the top 3 down along with me!
@ELUNO you leave me out of this! I worked hard to get here after missing picks on week 4 and 7!
@jbartus I just made my picks. Can’t change them Friday AM, there’s no way I’ll finish top 5.
Mental note to self: make sure to take @jbartus way way down with me!
@Pavlov what did you pick?
@ELUNO BACK OFF BARBIE!
@Pavlov You’re not gonna fall to #5; you’re $23M ahead of @medz
@compunaut leave me alone
@medz And you’re beating me by almost $16M. There’s no way I’m making that up. Unless you forget to make your picks…
@jbartus
Films.
@compunaut Anything is possible.
@Pavlov aw, I was hoping you’d share so I could run differentials against my projected takes and see how good I feel about this week. Now I will have to wait til Friday.
Bad Santa 2? Alright! Going all in.
@sammydog01 A Christmas classic for sure! I still watch the original almost every Christmas!
@sammydog01 I can’t bring myself to pick BS2. I’m going to use the @jbartus selection strategy.
@compunaut and what strategy do you think that is?
@jbartus One blockbuster + multi-screen ‘indie’ film
@compunaut I’ve done that once… and it was an informed decision, not a randomly chosen indie film.
@compunaut
That seems to be the formula most likely to yeild the optimum weekly result. For some reason I resist it in practice. Cute and clever but ugly.
@f00l it usually isn’t though. O_o
@jbartus Sigh… I know that. Didn’t say it was random; but it was a calculated risk. Moonlight wasn’t a lock for Best Performer.
@compunaut it all but was though. When your theater count increases by nearly 300% it’s pretty much a given.
@jbartus You would think so, but it was touch-and-go. Moonlight made $1.3M in wk11, but only $1.5M w/ 3X the screens in wk12. Hacksaw Ridge & Arrival fell short of projections and were close. Shut In only needed $150K more to win.
@compunaut
Are you keeping a spreadsheet?
@compunaut yeah but BP isn’t about performance vs. screens it’s about performance vs. bux cost.
@f00l Nope. I ran across the theater count info that was the basis of @jbartus’ play on Fri, but after screens locked. Curiosity piqued, I played close attention to the resulting numbers. I expected Moonlight to get at least $1.9M, but early estimates were much lower; it rebounded later in the weekend to reach $1.5M. Arrival would have been better had it reached $14.7M; projections were over $15M.
@jbartus I took bux into account. Look, I thought you made the smart play & had a lock on a great result when I saw the screen count change. Turned out to be closer than expected and wouldn’t have been enough if other films’ projections had held up.
@jbartus My flight was cancelled very early on the morning of Turkey Day and I’m not leaving for a few more hours - I revisited my picks, but ended it ended up that I did not change anything. Not enough data!
Have fun! Good luck!
@Pavlov Flight cancellation? Is that still a thing?
@compunaut We use JetSuiteX a lot - many times it is cheaper than flying commercial (especially if you fly first class), and there are no lines, no TSA bullshit to deal with and a hell of a lot more fun. But occasionally, smaller planes can cancel for any number of reasons. Really great thing is that when it does happen, you still get to fly for the price you originally booked if you’re in the preferred customer class - and sometimes they just break down send you your own plane to get you where you were going. Not this time though (holidays, no planes available), we decided to wait for the plane we were originally scheduled to be on - it cancelled yesterday due to a mechanical issue and two or three hours later changed into delayed status after the cancel. Rather than pay (a lot) more, we simply waited for the plane a day. On this trip, we’re flying with 14 others and basically the entire cabin is first class - so what is normally a $10k or more first class ticket is $800 a seat on a jet share. We are flying into a much smaller airport that is quite a distance from where a commercial airport is, and flying out of MCI wasn’t an option last minute with the holiday crowd. And I don’t wait in line and I get a hell of a view. And there is no cockpit door, so my son LOVES it, he gets to sit up there (if there is room, otherwise he pokes his head in until the co-pilot gives up his seat) and he gets wings. Try that on a commercial flight - LOL.
Oh - and we aren’t flying for the holiday (to see family, etc.) - so when we get there isn’t all that important. Would have been nice to be at the lodge at the buffet for T-day but we made it work. We’re just gonna go shoot some shit up and hopefully bag a nice buck.
@Pavlov sounds like fun. Bummer about your flight but at least you’ll hopefully still get to have a good time!
I am so unsure of my picks this week. I will not change them at this point, even though I feel I made a huge mistake.
/giphy huge mistake
Well, I forgot to make my changes. Definitely will go down…
Welcome to the Billionaires Club gents!
Dear Theater Theater: I don’t know who you are, but you are a genius.
woo 64 million dollars! Where do I pick up my check?
@Pantheist the disbursement office is open on the sixth Friday of February between 4:00 and 4:02 PM EST.
@jbartus I assume it will be in cash, just like the entry fee, correct?
Where can I see league final results for that season?
@medz choose the season from the drop down menu and sort by the totals column
@medz
@Pavlov had me log in for him and join a different invite only league for his theater for the next season - and I think I unsubscribed him from the Meh one when I did that - he came in second, about 20 mil (IIRC) behind @jbartus. He’ll be back tomorrow and fix it (or not, I don’t know - he doesn’t tell me shit, I’m just happy to be here – and yeah, that was sarcasm).
@MrsPavlov Aww… Now there’s a gaping hole at the top of our league results
Welcome to the new season.
Congrats to @jbartus, who prob will use this opportunity to brag about the Pats.
@f00l I won, the Pats won, Brady won, it was a good weekend overall.
@jbartus
Clearly, you should be the December Goat.
@f00l
You stop that now! Your turn goat!
It’s feels awesome just to say I squeaked into the top 5 in the final week. Just over $1B for the season
@compunaut I’m amazed I lucked into the top 5 as well. My last few weeks were just a series of terrible picks compared to the possible outcomes.
Closed for Renovations might actually open if I can get a repeat performance!
For a minute I had a false sense that I was in second place, but then I realized a new season started and the listing is alphabetical. I shall bask in the moment, as I will never see second place again for real.
@heartny Hahaha! I need to change my theater’s name.
@sammydog01 So tell us your theater’s name for this season. Please.
@compunaut I just meant change it to aaatheater or something to be in first place before the numbers started rolling in- like businesses did in the yellow pages back when that was a thing.
@Moose You gonna start a separate thread for the new season, and shut this one down?
@compunaut
How does the next season start? Are we rolled over into it or do we have to sign up?
@f00l we roll over. A new thread would just be for organizational purposes. If @Moose doesn’t show up soon to do it I’ll make one (was thinking of doing so last night) and just copy his format.
@jbartus go for it!
@Moose done. You’re not going to be joining us this season?
https://meh.com/forum/topics/mediocre-fantasy-movie-league-3-the-search-for-irk
@jbartus
Join us this season. Surely you will beat me.
@f00l I am the one who made the new thread, did you reference the wrong person?
@jbartus
Meant to address that to Moose.
Little sleep for several days. Getting v careless and stupid.
Apologies.
@Moose
Pls join us. You will beat me.
@f00l it’s okay, you can make up for it by taking all of the blame next month.
@f00l @jbartus I’ll still play, I’m just not up for making another thread or keeping track of it. Great OP in the new thread though!
@Moose hooray! And thanks.
By the way by my count five people beat both you and @ChadP this past season… There was a certain offer of potential prizes that @Pavlov, @compunaut, @ELUNO, and @cj0e might have interest in. Me personally I’m all set but you know… those guys.