When's the next fuku? An analysis

Fej posted a pic said
19

When will Meh post the next fuku?

This question is asked every day... by a small number of community members here on Meh. Nonetheless, I've attempted to answer the question, using the data available to us. This is as good as an educated guess as we're going to get, I think.

Let's take a look at the dates of all the fuku deals:

Fuku 1: 21 July 2014 (I took this date from forum posts, as there's no hard date for the Kickstarter fukus)
Fuku 2: 17 September 2014
Fuku 3: 14 November 2014
Fuku 4: 14 January 2015
Fuku 5 (the Fukō): 1 April 2015

Now, let's take a look at the distances between these dates:

Fuku 1 to 2: 58 days
Fuku 2 to 3: 58 days
Fuku 3 to 4: 61 days
Fuku 4 to 5: 77 days

One disconcerting thing to note is that the distances between fukus has been increasing, although there's a high possibility that this is just due to the whims and/or laziness of the Mediocre staff.

Distance between fukus graph
(If you can't zoom in, check out the graph on imgur: http://imgur.com/j5HP48p)

Now, what can we take from this? The curves on the graph represent different possibilities - that is, how fast the time difference will increase over time (dD/dT).

The best (although unlikely) possibility is that Meh will stick to the 58 day distance from the early days. In this possibility, the next fuku will occur on 29 May 2015.

The linear trend suggests that the next fuku will fall on 19 June 2015. My gut insists that the actual date will be in between this date and the previous one, so sometime early to mid-June.

The worst case scenario is that the Mediocre staffers get lazy, and the next fuku is farther away, as suggested by the x^2 and x^3 curves. The x^2 curve gives a date of 9 July 2015, while the x^3 curve gives 26 July 2015. That's a long time to wait for another fuku! (And hopefully very unlikely.)

It's very possible that I'm reading too much into this, and that Mediocre has no grand plan in place for fuku dates, and they just do one when they feel like it. In any case, these are the possibilities.

What do you think? Leave a comment.