Interesting new covid information
9Just read this where they looked at a zillion studies (meta analysis) and besides concluding much of the earlier research had issues due to being rushed due to the need for information, they reached conclusions about how long people tended to be contagious after symptoms and when they appear to be the most contagious.
Besides finding contagion wasn’t the same as the previous 2 RNA virus outbreaks, they found contagion peaked day 1 though 5 days of symptoms people (they were also contagious prior do the onset of symptoms), people didn’t tend to get tested until day 2 or 3 after symptoms, and by the time they got their tests back they were past when they were the most contagious. Their conclusion was to isolate immediately with potential symptoms as people generally aren’t until after they are the most contagious.
They also found that by the 9th day after symptoms people were no longer shedding much in the way of virus.
There were few studies about virus shedding with asymptomatic people. They did see in those studies that they likely didn’t shed as long so likely weren’t contagious as long. While this summary doesn’t explain their conclusion they stated that asymptomatic patients were likely responsible for about 1/3 of the spread.
Their conclusion was that one of the reasons big reasons why this country is having trouble containing the virus is that people don’t isolate soon enough for a number of reasons. These reasons including that employment sick leave policies related to covid and that most people don’t know for sure they have covid until after the most contagious period has past.
M. Cevik et al., “SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV viral load dynamics, duration of viral shedding, and infectiousness: a systematic review and meta-analysis,” The Lancet Microbe, doi:10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30172-5, 2020.
- 3 comments, 1 reply
- Comment
Makes sense.
They have also found that there are 3 significant impacts on morbidity and mortality.
(1) Cytokine storm - where your immune system goes crazy
(2) blood clots - heart problems, strokes
(3) respiratory distress syndrome - those that end up requiring ventilatory support
Those with Covid Pneumonia also remain contagious longer than those who do do not have that severe respiratory complication. Up to twice as long I believe.
After an exposure to someone who turned out to be in the presymptomatic stage, I did a bit of digging. Multiple sources are reporting the peak contagious period begins 48-72 hours pre-symptom.
Needless to say, I got tested. Yay, no 'rona!
But it does underscore how our focus on symptoms as indicators, in the absence of regular and rapid testing and contact tracing, left us vulnerable.
In related news, it seems they’re having some success in recovering COVID patient’s plasma being used to provide antibodies to patients with COVID as a sort of makeshift pseudo-vaccine anti-viral treatment. Likely a possible path for protection for people that can’t otherwise take the vaccine as well.
That’s what I understood from the local news tonight. I hope it’s true.
@mike808
I’ve heard mixed messages on that one.
Our CMO says it doesn’t seem to have a huge impact although it might decrease the morbidity period by a bit, it has no significant impact on mortality.
But that’s one University Medical Center complex and not a formal trial. Just what they have seen.
He believes you can have a greater impact on morbidly with all the current treatment options, than you have on overall mortality. We are seeing 5-10 deaths a day and at least 2-3 a week in our Children’s Hospital