@UncleVinny agree! My mom is terrified. We did a bit of grocery shopping tonight and she announced that this was it, she was not leaving the house again until it is over. Makes me sad, but it is honestly the safest thing for her.
Hope your mom stays safe and healthy throughout this mess!
@UncleVinny I know. When I read about the pre-existing conditions that increase the dying of this flu risk with these folks it is scary - high blood pressure, diabetes, and a handful of common ones.
On the other hand ONLY those who develop breathing problems with they have this flu are at risk of dying. Apparently about 80% don’t have shortness of breath and they don’t die. Of the 20% that do, (this is from memory so these following numbers might be off, I know the 80/20 is remembered right) about 30% of those over 80 die, 18% in their 70’s, 12% in their 60’s… This means (presuming I remembered 30%, etc. right) that 6% over 80 die overall (.2x.3=.06 or 6%) if you are looking at it before you know if you are in the 80% or20% group for symptoms, but if you are having breathing issues then your odds are higher (eg the 30%).
@UncleVinny Me too. I’m lucky because my mother is healthy but, on the other hand, she is 90. I really don’t want her to get this thing. They can call it a Boomer Doomer but it’s the Silent Generation that’s getting hit the hardest.
I’m also stressed because so little is known about COVID-19. That’s no one’s fault. It’s because it’s new so scientists haven’t had a chance to study it. It may have some long term effect on people who appear to have recovered from it (or some of them).
Best of luck to you and your mother. And to you and your Mom @tinamarie1974.
@Pamela@tinamarie1974@UncleVinny Best of luck to all of your parents, yourselves… My mom is in the vulnerable group too. In assisted living so it will be hard to have limited contact with others since so many people are in and out of there. She is in one of the states that has closed a zillion public schools.
@Kidsandliz@pamela My 91 yo dad’s AL in NY won’t let visitors in or residents out.Service people have to be checked. Employees are the key concern since they may have it and not know and there are not enough masks but they are doing what they can!
@thismyusername I read it. Sure looks like a flu from a symptomatic view of the lay person that has been clearing out the nation’s supply of toilet paper. Even the mortality rates are similar, but skewed to the elderly. 2 weeks and it’s gone for the vast majority of people.
I see the concern for the elderly, and that is appropriate, but the public reaction is as if the globe got crop dusted with anthrax. It’s a bit of a stretch, and a disproportionate response, IMO.
Saying bullshit doesn’t make it true. 2-3 times (and we’re talking 1% increasing to 2%-3% here,to be clear. Multiples of really small numbers are simply not significant, and are just FUD.
From the Ars article:
So far this flu season, the CDC estimates that up to 45 million Americans have been infected, hospitalizing up to 560,000 and killing 46,000.
Influenza remains a leading cause of death in the US.
If you are over 80, then I would agree, but you didn’t, and the population over 80 is not the majority.
According to the cdc last year influenza killed 61,200 people in the usa. Yes thats s lot. That is with a vaccine many people refuse to get, with antivirals.
Covid-19 we do not have a vaccine, we do not have effective antivirals. So far we have 41 deaths is USA. Italy which is a smaller country but a few weeks ahead of usa has over 1000 deaths. Yes that is lower so far. However , that number is going to rise and rise and rise fast. I sincerely hope you are right but the science is not showing that right now.
You are absolutely right… and THAT’S why you are wrong.
Using your numbers, 45K deaths in 46 Million cases (let’s call it 45 million so I don’t have to use a calculator…) works out to one death in a thousand cases. I learned that that is .1% (point one percent if it is hard to read on a phone screen)
Current reported deaths are approx 5800 out of 154,000 (OK had to use a calculator for this one) is 3.7%… or 37 times as lethal.
And a million times zero is still zero. It just isn’t significant unless you’re trying to inflate the significance between less than 1% and 3%, with no controls for age distribution, population density, super-spreaders, interaction metrics, etc.
It’s just not a meaningful difference to the 80% that don’t have any significant difference in symptoms from the seasonal flu and that is an 800 times more likely outcome than your claimed 37 times scaremongering.
I’m thinking we should put proportional resources towards dealing with the folks that are 20 times more likely to be in that 80% group than in the 3% group. i.e. hand washing regimens over spraying bleach over any exposed surface and stocking up on toilet paper.
the “zero” in the above equation is the Flu death rate… Co-morbidity risk factors are about the same for both illnesses.
the 45 million number is pulled out of a metric that is used to estimate the number of cases. Actual positive tests are less.
the 154K cases mentioned above are CONFIRMED cases, for an illness that until a few weeks ago we didn’t even know existed. Unknown = scary to most people.
the trouble is that we are unfamiliar with this particular bug, and there is no ‘herd’ protection yet.
Italy, for instance has about a 7% death rate on confirmed cases. The amount of stress this has put on their healthcare system is totally unreal.
We are not sure how the change in seasons will pan out for this bug. Flu tends to disappear when the temps rise, this one we just don’t know yet.
I am by no means advocating panic. I AM by all means advocating caution and common sense, no matter how uncommon it may be. Hoarding food, water, toilet paper etc. is not the answer. Having the common decency to keep your ass at home if you are sick OTOH is commendable be it with flu, strep, coryza or COVID 19.
The unfortunate truth is that most of us economically cannot afford to miss work for any extended period of time. Closing all the schools puts a HUGE strain on the workforce… someone has to be home with all those 2nd graders etc.
The death rate reported in Italy is probably a lot higher than it really is because they haven’t done enough testing of people with mild cases. A higher estimate of people infected will change the math on that a lot. But with no natural immunity this is going to be a disaster.
@OldCatLady The mode is the answer that is most common choice on a survey or the most common event out of a list of events, etc. With ratio or interval data with a “normal” distribution, the mean, median and mode should converge (in a theoretically perfect world anyway).
The presence of chronic diseases and a large age increase the risk of a poor outcome. It is worth while taking care of yourself and sitting at home. Mankind has faced great problems. Do not let fear seize you.
All types of flu are apprehended with caution. After all, we do not know how to treat and there are no drugs specifically for the coronavirus. After all, antivirals do not help. When COVID-19 remains in the past, we will recall this with some irony. Everything new seems very scary for a person. And fear has big eyes.