For folks like my already-sick-in-multiple-ways 73-year-old mom it’s scary as fuck, and I really hope everyone can try not to get infected and/or not infect others so that people like her don’t die.
@UncleVinny agree! My mom is terrified. We did a bit of grocery shopping tonight and she announced that this was it, she was not leaving the house again until it is over. Makes me sad, but it is honestly the safest thing for her.
Hope your mom stays safe and healthy throughout this mess!
@UncleVinny I know. When I read about the pre-existing conditions that increase the dying of this flu risk with these folks it is scary - high blood pressure, diabetes, and a handful of common ones.
On the other hand ONLY those who develop breathing problems with they have this flu are at risk of dying. Apparently about 80% don’t have shortness of breath and they don’t die. Of the 20% that do, (this is from memory so these following numbers might be off, I know the 80/20 is remembered right) about 30% of those over 80 die, 18% in their 70’s, 12% in their 60’s… This means (presuming I remembered 30%, etc. right) that 6% over 80 die overall (.2x.3=.06 or 6%) if you are looking at it before you know if you are in the 80% or20% group for symptoms, but if you are having breathing issues then your odds are higher (eg the 30%).
@UncleVinny Me too. I’m lucky because my mother is healthy but, on the other hand, she is 90. I really don’t want her to get this thing. They can call it a Boomer Doomer but it’s the Silent Generation that’s getting hit the hardest.
I’m also stressed because so little is known about COVID-19. That’s no one’s fault. It’s because it’s new so scientists haven’t had a chance to study it. It may have some long term effect on people who appear to have recovered from it (or some of them).
Best of luck to you and your mother. And to you and your Mom @tinamarie1974.
@Pamela@tinamarie1974@UncleVinny Best of luck to all of your parents, yourselves… My mom is in the vulnerable group too. In assisted living so it will be hard to have limited contact with others since so many people are in and out of there. She is in one of the states that has closed a zillion public schools.
I’ve also seen mentions that we do not yet know if recovery confers immunity. If it’s possible to get sick repeatedly that could be a significant barrier to getting back to normal social interactions.
Or there could be something we won’t see for years as was the case with polio and post-polio syndrome.
@Kidsandliz@pamela My 91 yo dad’s AL in NY won’t let visitors in or residents out.Service people have to be checked. Employees are the key concern since they may have it and not know and there are not enough masks but they are doing what they can!
@thismyusername I read it. Sure looks like a flu from a symptomatic view of the lay person that has been clearing out the nation’s supply of toilet paper. Even the mortality rates are similar, but skewed to the elderly. 2 weeks and it’s gone for the vast majority of people.
I see the concern for the elderly, and that is appropriate, but the public reaction is as if the globe got crop dusted with anthrax. It’s a bit of a stretch, and a disproportionate response, IMO.
@CaptAmehrican@thismyusername
Saying bullshit doesn’t make it true. 2-3 times (and we’re talking 1% increasing to 2%-3% here,to be clear. Multiples of really small numbers are simply not significant, and are just FUD.
From the Ars article:
So far this flu season, the CDC estimates that up to 45 million Americans have been infected, hospitalizing up to 560,000 and killing 46,000.
Influenza remains a leading cause of death in the US.
If you are over 80, then I would agree, but you didn’t, and the population over 80 is not the majority.
@mike808@thismyusername
According to the cdc last year influenza killed 61,200 people in the usa. Yes thats s lot. That is with a vaccine many people refuse to get, with antivirals.
Covid-19 we do not have a vaccine, we do not have effective antivirals. So far we have 41 deaths is USA. Italy which is a smaller country but a few weeks ahead of usa has over 1000 deaths. Yes that is lower so far. However , that number is going to rise and rise and rise fast. I sincerely hope you are right but the science is not showing that right now.
You are absolutely right… and THAT’S why you are wrong.
Using your numbers, 45K deaths in 46 Million cases (let’s call it 45 million so I don’t have to use a calculator…) works out to one death in a thousand cases. I learned that that is .1% (point one percent if it is hard to read on a phone screen)
Current reported deaths are approx 5800 out of 154,000 (OK had to use a calculator for this one) is 3.7%… or 37 times as lethal.
@CaptAmehrican@chienfou@thismyusername
And a million times zero is still zero. It just isn’t significant unless you’re trying to inflate the significance between less than 1% and 3%, with no controls for age distribution, population density, super-spreaders, interaction metrics, etc.
It’s just not a meaningful difference to the 80% that don’t have any significant difference in symptoms from the seasonal flu and that is an 800 times more likely outcome than your claimed 37 times scaremongering.
I’m thinking we should put proportional resources towards dealing with the folks that are 20 times more likely to be in that 80% group than in the 3% group. i.e. hand washing regimens over spraying bleach over any exposed surface and stocking up on toilet paper.
the “zero” in the above equation is the Flu death rate… Co-morbidity risk factors are about the same for both illnesses.
the 45 million number is pulled out of a metric that is used to estimate the number of cases. Actual positive tests are less.
the 154K cases mentioned above are CONFIRMED cases, for an illness that until a few weeks ago we didn’t even know existed. Unknown = scary to most people.
the trouble is that we are unfamiliar with this particular bug, and there is no ‘herd’ protection yet.
Italy, for instance has about a 7% death rate on confirmed cases. The amount of stress this has put on their healthcare system is totally unreal.
We are not sure how the change in seasons will pan out for this bug. Flu tends to disappear when the temps rise, this one we just don’t know yet.
I am by no means advocating panic. I AM by all means advocating caution and common sense, no matter how uncommon it may be. Hoarding food, water, toilet paper etc. is not the answer. Having the common decency to keep your ass at home if you are sick OTOH is commendable be it with flu, strep, coryza or COVID 19.
The unfortunate truth is that most of us economically cannot afford to miss work for any extended period of time. Closing all the schools puts a HUGE strain on the workforce… someone has to be home with all those 2nd graders etc.
@CaptAmehrican@mike808@thismyusername
BTW the George Carlin shot is a GREAT example of that truth… since he is wrong and that’s the mean not the average.
(but I still think the guy is a genius!)
@CaptAmehrican@chienfou@thismyusername
The death rate reported in Italy is probably a lot higher than it really is because they haven’t done enough testing of people with mild cases. A higher estimate of people infected will change the math on that a lot. But with no natural immunity this is going to be a disaster.
@OldCatLady The mode is the answer that is most common choice on a survey or the most common event out of a list of events, etc. With ratio or interval data with a “normal” distribution, the mean, median and mode should converge (in a theoretically perfect world anyway).
Mean is average = take all values divide by number of values
Median=the middle number if you list all the numbers from low to high
Mode= the most common number in the data set.
all I have to say about this discussion is, Y’ALL NEED TO LEARN TO EDIT THE NAMES WHEN YOU CLICK REPLY… haha but it’s all good… but seriously edit the names when you reply.
@mike808 Not his fault, but he totally fucked the puppy on the response, by trying to lie his way out of it initially claiming it was no worse than the common cold.
I don’t see any of you stocking up on vegetables, low-dose aspirin, and gym memberships
Please quit looking in my fridge and medicine cabinet… and stay out of my trashcan looking for CC statements while you are at it…
/giphy you’re creeping me out…
The presence of chronic diseases and a large age increase the risk of a poor outcome. It is worth while taking care of yourself and sitting at home. Mankind has faced great problems. Do not let fear seize you.
All types of flu are apprehended with caution. After all, we do not know how to treat and there are no drugs specifically for the coronavirus. After all, antivirals do not help. When COVID-19 remains in the past, we will recall this with some irony. Everything new seems very scary for a person. And fear has big eyes.
For folks like my already-sick-in-multiple-ways 73-year-old mom it’s scary as fuck, and I really hope everyone can try not to get infected and/or not infect others so that people like her don’t die.
@UncleVinny agree! My mom is terrified. We did a bit of grocery shopping tonight and she announced that this was it, she was not leaving the house again until it is over. Makes me sad, but it is honestly the safest thing for her.
Hope your mom stays safe and healthy throughout this mess!
@tinamarie1974 tyty, same to you and your’n!
@UncleVinny I know. When I read about the pre-existing conditions that increase the dying of this flu risk with these folks it is scary - high blood pressure, diabetes, and a handful of common ones.
On the other hand ONLY those who develop breathing problems with they have this flu are at risk of dying. Apparently about 80% don’t have shortness of breath and they don’t die. Of the 20% that do, (this is from memory so these following numbers might be off, I know the 80/20 is remembered right) about 30% of those over 80 die, 18% in their 70’s, 12% in their 60’s… This means (presuming I remembered 30%, etc. right) that 6% over 80 die overall (.2x.3=.06 or 6%) if you are looking at it before you know if you are in the 80% or20% group for symptoms, but if you are having breathing issues then your odds are higher (eg the 30%).
@UncleVinny Me too. I’m lucky because my mother is healthy but, on the other hand, she is 90. I really don’t want her to get this thing. They can call it a Boomer Doomer but it’s the Silent Generation that’s getting hit the hardest.
I’m also stressed because so little is known about COVID-19. That’s no one’s fault. It’s because it’s new so scientists haven’t had a chance to study it. It may have some long term effect on people who appear to have recovered from it (or some of them).
Best of luck to you and your mother. And to you and your Mom @tinamarie1974.
@Pamela @tinamarie1974 @UncleVinny The “run-of-the-mill flu” got my dad last year. I hope my mom makes it through this.
@sammydog01 I hope so too. And I am so sorry to hear about your dad. That had to be, and I am sure still is, hard.
@Pamela @tinamarie1974 @UncleVinny Best of luck to all of your parents, yourselves… My mom is in the vulnerable group too. In assisted living so it will be hard to have limited contact with others since so many people are in and out of there. She is in one of the states that has closed a zillion public schools.
@Pamela What potential long term effects are you reading about?
@Kidsandliz The only specific one I’ve seen mentioned is possible lung damage. https://www.sciencealert.com/even-those-who-recover-from-corona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards
I’ve also seen mentions that we do not yet know if recovery confers immunity. If it’s possible to get sick repeatedly that could be a significant barrier to getting back to normal social interactions.
Or there could be something we won’t see for years as was the case with polio and post-polio syndrome.
@Kidsandliz @pamela My 91 yo dad’s AL in NY won’t let visitors in or residents out.Service people have to be checked. Employees are the key concern since they may have it and not know and there are not enough masks but they are doing what they can!
@readnj These are the people that really need masks. It pisses me off that crazy people and gougers are the ones that have them.
@sammydog01 Crazy people?
Well it’s not a “flu” for one thing… but this might help you out:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
@thismyusername I read it. Sure looks like a flu from a symptomatic view of the lay person that has been clearing out the nation’s supply of toilet paper. Even the mortality rates are similar, but skewed to the elderly. 2 weeks and it’s gone for the vast majority of people.
I see the concern for the elderly, and that is appropriate, but the public reaction is as if the globe got crop dusted with anthrax. It’s a bit of a stretch, and a disproportionate response, IMO.
@mike808 @thismyusername mortality rates are not similar covid-19 has 10 to 20 times the mortality rate of influenza.
@CaptAmehrican @thismyusername
Saying bullshit doesn’t make it true. 2-3 times (and we’re talking 1% increasing to 2%-3% here,to be clear. Multiples of really small numbers are simply not significant, and are just FUD.
From the Ars article:
So far this flu season, the CDC estimates that up to 45 million Americans have been infected, hospitalizing up to 560,000 and killing 46,000.
Influenza remains a leading cause of death in the US.
If you are over 80, then I would agree, but you didn’t, and the population over 80 is not the majority.
@mike808 @thismyusername
According to the cdc last year influenza killed 61,200 people in the usa. Yes thats s lot. That is with a vaccine many people refuse to get, with antivirals.
Covid-19 we do not have a vaccine, we do not have effective antivirals. So far we have 41 deaths is USA. Italy which is a smaller country but a few weeks ahead of usa has over 1000 deaths. Yes that is lower so far. However , that number is going to rise and rise and rise fast. I sincerely hope you are right but the science is not showing that right now.
@CaptAmehrican @mike808 @thismyusername
You are absolutely right… and THAT’S why you are wrong.
Using your numbers, 45K deaths in 46 Million cases (let’s call it 45 million so I don’t have to use a calculator…) works out to one death in a thousand cases. I learned that that is .1% (point one percent if it is hard to read on a phone screen)
Current reported deaths are approx 5800 out of 154,000 (OK had to use a calculator for this one) is 3.7%… or 37 times as lethal.
@CaptAmehrican @chienfou @thismyusername
And a million times zero is still zero. It just isn’t significant unless you’re trying to inflate the significance between less than 1% and 3%, with no controls for age distribution, population density, super-spreaders, interaction metrics, etc.
It’s just not a meaningful difference to the 80% that don’t have any significant difference in symptoms from the seasonal flu and that is an 800 times more likely outcome than your claimed 37 times scaremongering.
I’m thinking we should put proportional resources towards dealing with the folks that are 20 times more likely to be in that 80% group than in the 3% group. i.e. hand washing regimens over spraying bleach over any exposed surface and stocking up on toilet paper.
@CaptAmehrican @mike808 @thismyusername
@CaptAmehrican @mike808 @thismyusername
OK a couple of other points
I am by no means advocating panic. I AM by all means advocating caution and common sense, no matter how uncommon it may be. Hoarding food, water, toilet paper etc. is not the answer. Having the common decency to keep your ass at home if you are sick OTOH is commendable be it with flu, strep, coryza or COVID 19.
The unfortunate truth is that most of us economically cannot afford to miss work for any extended period of time. Closing all the schools puts a HUGE strain on the workforce… someone has to be home with all those 2nd graders etc.
@CaptAmehrican @mike808 @thismyusername
BTW the George Carlin shot is a GREAT example of that truth… since he is wrong and that’s the mean not the average.
(but I still think the guy is a genius!)
@chienfou
So you think a guy that thinks “stupider” is a word is a genius.
@chienfou Poor @mike808, trying to go around and pick fights. You just love to argue don’t you Mike?
@CaptAmehrican @chienfou @thismyusername
The death rate reported in Italy is probably a lot higher than it really is because they haven’t done enough testing of people with mild cases. A higher estimate of people infected will change the math on that a lot. But with no natural immunity this is going to be a disaster.
@mike808 since there seem to be a large number of sources/dictionaries that list ‘stupider’ as the comparative I hardly think that is a disqualifier.
@chienfou @mike808 It’s pretty stupid to try to start a debate about stupider.
@mike808 @therealjrn
/eightball is it?
You may rely on it
@therealjrn ok… You win!
@chienfou Yay! I won the internets tonight!
@CaptAmehrican @chienfou @thismyusername
Actually, it is the median. But in large and diverse populations, with a bell curve distribution, the mean and the median converge.
@CaptAmehrican @chienfou @macromeh @thismyusername From the recesses of memory comes the list of statistical terms “mean, median, and mode”. So what’s the mode?
@OldCatLady The mode is the answer that is most common choice on a survey or the most common event out of a list of events, etc. With ratio or interval data with a “normal” distribution, the mean, median and mode should converge (in a theoretically perfect world anyway).
@macromeh
Doh… that’s what I mean(t)… Thanks.
@chienfou @macromeh @OldCatLady @thismyusername
Mean is average = take all values divide by number of values
Median=the middle number if you list all the numbers from low to high
Mode= the most common number in the data set.
all I have to say about this discussion is, Y’ALL NEED TO LEARN TO EDIT THE NAMES WHEN YOU CLICK REPLY… haha but it’s all good… but seriously edit the names when you reply.
@thismyusername You don’t like the “reply all” button in your email?
@thismyusername sorry… Just trying to be inclusive. Don’t want anyone to feel left out… Here’s your participation
@CaptAmehrican thanks. I think i got it now
This guy is a retired nurse trainer in the UK. He has been doing very measured but also very informative videos daily.
@mike808 Yup. COVID-19. Definitely POTUS’ fault. Isn’t everything though?
@mike808 Not his fault, but he totally fucked the puppy on the response, by trying to lie his way out of it initially claiming it was no worse than the common cold.
Worse–and I really hope this gets investigated–he refused the tests proffered from the World Health Organization; and his son-in-law’s brother owns a company that then introduced their own COVID-19 test.
(https://www.dcreport.org/2020/03/16/how-the-kushner-family-is-cashing-in-on-covid-19/)
Shady.as.fuck.
Interestingly chronic lung issues are the third leading co-morbidity, behind coronary disease and diabetes (#1 and #2)
@chienfou
What if Covid-19 killed someone in the US every 18 seconds?
Well heart disease does.
But I don’t see any of you stocking up on vegetables, low-dose aspirin, and gym memberships.
@chienfou @mike808 They were hidden under the 96 rolls of toilet paper.
@mike808
Please quit looking in my fridge and medicine cabinet… and stay out of my trashcan looking for CC statements while you are at it…
/giphy you’re creeping me out…
@chienfou I actually stocked up on frozen veggies and Tylenol yesterday. Does that count??
@tinamarie1974 good plan… Tylenol won’t help your heart much, but the veggies will be good to have when the COVID zombies show up.
@chienfou the tylenol is for the headaches. I don’t want to be running low and not able to find it. I only bought two bottles just in case
@chienfou @mike808 Has heart disease ever killed a quarter of a nursing home in one week? We’re stocking up to protect high risk people, not ourselves.
@tinamarie1974 good plan… Headaches will be a common problem in the coming weeks when you
/giphy sigh
@chienfou how did you know I had tix for upcoming Blues games?!?!?!
@tinamarie1974 that’s me…Nostradumass.
@chienfou I knew you were wise, but clearly I underestimated your powers!
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The presence of chronic diseases and a large age increase the risk of a poor outcome. It is worth while taking care of yourself and sitting at home. Mankind has faced great problems. Do not let fear seize you.
@dark_lord I think you’re a bot too.
@therealjrn Something we can agree upon.
There is a definite whiff of something in the electrons here.
All types of flu are apprehended with caution. After all, we do not know how to treat and there are no drugs specifically for the coronavirus. After all, antivirals do not help. When COVID-19 remains in the past, we will recall this with some irony. Everything new seems very scary for a person. And fear has big eyes.
@lilit_miras YOU have big eyes, don’t you bot?
@therealjrn
Something we can agree upon.
There is a definite whiff of something in the electrons here.
@lilit_miras Actually, alpha interferon 2b (an antiviral) has been shown to help.
Too bad it’s made in Cuba and licensed to China only for domestic use, since the US has been embargoing them for 60 years.
@therealjrn LOL
@mike808 @therealjrn System failure
Well this is cool. One of the websites used a lot to track the spread of the virus was designed and is maintained by a 17 year old.
The story about him and his site
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/13/meet_the_17_year_old_behind?fbclid=IwAR2elhgm7Sfh5DIdfGdVfgk_reKvNnTM96ALBm3W1fYAzKL2ctZrSXxKJ98
Here is the website
https://ncov2019.live/data