Coder's Bracket 2016
8Time for another Coder's Bracket. Quick recap: Coder's Bracket is where you fill out your March Madness bracket using code.
- In 2014, I created an algorithm based on the statistical winning percentage over the past 29 years of each seed broken down by round. This approach was a disaster.
- In 2015, I made a small tweak that also takes into account the team's winning percentage (adjusted for strength of schedule using the Rating Percentage Index). This approach got me into the top 90.2% of all coder brackets.
This year I'm once again starting with the statistical winning percentage over the past 29 years of each seed broken down by round...
Then, just like 2015, I'm adjusting for strength of schedule using the Rating Percentage Index.
This year's tweak is to further adjust based on the deltas of the two team's 3-point percentage, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage.
View the code and the results here:
https://www.codersbracket.com/code_bracket/56e700edb3c99cd90063074a
- 12 comments, 21 replies
- Comment
@shawn So work friends want me to join their March Madness Bracket Pool. Entry fee is $100, winner takes all. I know absolutely nothing about college basketball. Should I put all my faith in you and your coder's bracket? Had any luck with this?
I suppose it is better than me just guessing.
@mfladd I've lost both times I tried to use this in an office pool. What you really should do is make your own coder bracket and submit that.
@shawn Ya, not my specialty. But perhaps this will be your lucky year with this thing. I might still use it.
# /bin/bash
seq 16 |sort -R
@spacezorro
There are field goals in basketball ?
@shawn So it is done. All my March Madness Hoop Dreams now lie with you and your Coder's Bracket for my work pool. My kids are pulling for your bracket to help make their Disney trip in April even better! (I know it is a long shot - but ya never know). Thanks for posting it.
Wonk out, my friends.
Update: Using the Shawn Codec for my work league (aka Disney or Bust Bracket), I have first day results.
Purdue was a tough loss, but Providence winning in the last few seconds definitely helped. That game and Wichita/Arizona, which I did not win began to separate a congested field.
After day one, I remain tied in 1st place, 4 way tie (out of 14) with 12 points. Nice job Shawn!
oops codec = coder bracket
@mfladd I was pleased we got the Yale and Gonzaga upsets correct. Now let's cheer for Northern Iowa.
@shawn California was a tough one, but Michigan St losing to Middle Tennessee just busted the brackets of 6 out 14 brackets in my pool! :)
@shawn Northern Iowa - Nice.
@mfladd
@shawn
Re N Iowa win:
No, it wasnt nice. Not here.
Regarding Purdue:
I say Fuck Purdue. I mean, they fucked me.
@f00l This is probably the first time I can say the N. Iowa thing was not a Texas diss :). It was about the fact that @shawn's coder bracket actually predicted the win. It has predicted some excellent upsets.
@mfladd
Ok i will think that is cool later, but am still mourning.
@f00l do you need a hug?
@mfladd
Just need to cuddle under a burnt orange blanket crying burnt orange tears. Not cuddling w Bevo tho. Bevo isn't really for cuddling.
I grant that shot was an epic game-winning moment. Just the wrong guys had the moment. Jesperson really deserved his shiny best ever moment.
Sigh. I will now retreat back to my memories of Duke Carlisle vs Roger Staubach and vs Don Truell.
@mfladd
Here's a good vid.
@f00l OMG! That was insane.
past performance has almost nothing to do with future results. the players graduated. the coach may not be the same. everything may be different.
@afwaller In general I don't disagree, but are you seeing something here that's related to past performance by players or coaches? If anything I'd say my approach goes out of its way to combat this kind of bias.
Next year try using KenPom instead of RPI, as RPI is a pretty crappy metric and shouldn't be used like it is for tournament selection.
UPDATE: We are down to the Elite Eight I still have my Final Four intact in my work pool using @shawn's Coder Bracket. All the brackets in my league have mostly broken and I have only one real competitor left (but I lead in points due some great upsets early on). In fact myself and this other individual now have EXACTLY the same brackets. The difference is they picked Kansas and I picked North Carolina. So it will come down to which of these two teams makes it further. I am soooo close to a major payday. Go North Carolina! (Nice Job Shawn)
@mfladd we got six of the elite eight teams!
UPDATE: Kansas losing was good even though I had them in the Championship. As long as NC can win tomorrow. I am good.
I got up to 2nd place using the Coder's Bracket 94.5% but I'm almost done since Kansas lost. I'm actually quite happy to have gotten to second place! I know not what I'm doing.
@looseneck but aren't you still in since NC is in play?
@mfladd I think so, but I can't win because my top pick is out. Doesn't it work that way?
@looseneck If you used shawn's coder bracket he had NC winning, unless you made a change to it.
@mfladd I thought I was using Shawn's bracket. I wanted to use Shawn's bracket. I don't know what happened.
@looseneck hahaha :)
I used Shawn's bracket. Even with NC losing, I took 2nd place in my pool out of 50 people. Since it's not winner takes all, I'll have a few extra Skittles this month. Thanks @Shawn