Ask the guy who knows more than the in-home salesperson from Solar City

@narfcake If you were to live where I live and assuming you used a 3% loan, you’d be looking at a positive cashflow of about $75-100 for 10 years. After that, it’s 10 years of that sweet, sweet, free electricity gravy.

@JerseyFrank Sounds good. Now my power bill is under $50 a month, $20 of which is baseline costs. Can I still save any money?

@narfcake The pitch guy at the home show told Bob and me that if our electric bill is under $50 a month, we probably would never realize any actual savings from installing solar panels. Since his averaged about $25 and mine averages about $35 we just gave up on the idea

@moondrake One solar salesman questioned me back “do you even use any lights?!”, doubting my monthly bill. “Yep. I’ve used CFLs since the 90’s and my appliances are all energy star models.” He left me alone after that.

@narfcake I spend more than that to keep the refrigerator running every month.

@narfcake I hope you’re happy. I decided I needed better metrics to compare offers. Here’s a spreadsheet because I fucking love spreadsheets.

@narfcake A few years ago the real ROI breakeven was about 25 years, which is just in time to have to replace all the major components. So the solar ROI breakeven is acutally never.

And to put another nail in the coffin, the power company here is now eliminitaing net metering (getting money back for solar power you put onto the grid). They’ll happily take your extra electricity, but in return you get nothing but another bill to pay.

@uwacn Net Metering has always been a scam on the electric companies anyway. It’s a hidden solar subsidy.

@ruouttaurmind It depends on what your generation and usage would be. Based on all 2 of the estimates I’ve gotten so far, it’s between $3.33 and $3.85 per Watt installed on a 9-10 kW system. Smaller systems will be more per Watt. Number of Watts needed will depend on your consumption, angle of house, shading, location, roof area, etc.

@JerseyFrank Thank you for the reply!

I had no clue even the ballpark solar was playing in. $35k-$40k is a substantially bigger bite than I would have guessed. I was expecting to read your reply and see $20k-$25k at the most. Of course I understand there are variables, as you mentioned.

So this is an investment one makes when they plan to stay put for 15+ years, ya? Any less and it’s precariously close to recap ROI, let alone benefit.

@JerseyFrank and how many watts per sq ft given no shading and optimal angles? What are the optimal angles for NYC?

My building is a condo with four of the 16 units having roof access (decks, etc.) so only about 50-60% (I’m guessing) of the roof (the pitched sections) would be available for panels. They are oriented in a generally north-south direction (i.e. the two halves of the pitched sections face east and west) and are angled at about 45 degrees. With the exception of chimneys (one for boiler, two for fireplaces) there is little if any shading of the roof. All of the units have separate electric meters and I don’t see how we’d divvy up solar for any of the 16 owners, but the common areas, pumps, boiler, etc. average a bit over $100/month for electricity (more in the Winter than Summer as it happens, since there is no common cooling).

My boss (retiring Friday, as it happens) finally got his system installed about three months ago (NYC, not ideal angles for roof but pretty good with only his chimney shading the panels). His financing was only short term (6-9 months, IIRC) as he will use some form of tax credits to pay for all but about $8K of it (IIRC… he told me how much it was and all, but I don’t recall the details). His panels use micro-inverters and I know he’s said his meter was running backwards on sunny days this Spring.

@ruouttaurmind My breakeven year, making a lot of assumptions, is around year 10. If you want to check out the spreadsheet I put together to see all the assumptions, you can see it here.

@ruouttaurmind I wouldn’t invest in it if I were expecting to leave in the next 10 years; however, they system has value. I just don’t know if I could convince a buyer that it’s worth it. I mean, I could produce the numbers (basically, just update assumptions and move along to whatever year I’m at in that spreadsheet); but finding a person who is willing to spend the time understanding them and wants to buy my house is a very lonely Venn diagram, I’m sure.

@JerseyFrank

the spreadsheet I put together

Excellent presentation! Thank you for sharing this.

@ruouttaurmind no problem. If you grab a copy of it, you can play with the numbers and see just how it might work for you

@RiotDemon I just recently got caught up with Parks & Rec. Love that show.

@therealjrn never even seen it yet. Working retail, this gets passed around by co-workers because they can relate. Same thing as clips from the show on YouTube that basically looks like people working at the returns desk at best buy (I can’t think of the name at all)

The opening post made me think of it since it was saying that he knew more than the solar city rep.

@therealjrn found it:

@RiotDemon Parks & Rec I think was made from the same people who made The Office. (or at least some of them) A lot of absurd humor. It’s on Netflix as is The Office. It’s a little slow at first but once it gets rolling it’s a hoot. If you like Dilbert you will like them both.

@RiotDemon The OP reminded me of when I call into “tech support” for whatever. More often than not, I do indeed know more than the “expert.” lol

@therealjrn I totally understand the tech support thing. It frustrates me when you call and tell them all the things you’ve tried, and they start at the beginning of their checklist which is essentially, “are you sure it’s plugged in?”

@RiotDemon I actually had the AT&T “techs” suggest I reverse the cat5 cable to “fix” the DSL problem that was on their servers. It was so clearly a ploy to get me off the phone I had to admire it.

Because everybody knows cat5 works better plugged in one way over the other.

@therealjrn I got the same nonsense from my cable company. My guess is that want to confirm that not only are your connections tight, but also your cable is continuous - that is, that the opposite ends of the same cable are being used.
Yeah, they could just ask.

@therealjrn Oh yes, cat5 polarization is totally a thing. The DSL electron spins interact with the cat5 twisted pairs, inducing chromium ion migration in the connector frabbitz interfaces. Reversing them makes the bits go much faster until the ions build up again. You should reverse your cables every six months or buy cat5 with low chromium connector frabbitzes. I’m sure AT&T would be willing to sell you some.

@mehcuda67 haha ha. So it’s my frabbitz interfaces on the blink? I did not know how important rotating my cables were…thanks man.

@therealjrn I saw an article on a trusted website that had this, and other sweet hacker tricks! Number 7 will shock you!

@caffeine_dude you can get a system that stores electricity locally, but those are super pricey right now. Current practice involves something called net metering. This means that all electricity you produce goes onto your local grid, then you draw back what you need. Hopefully you have a system set up that produces more than enough during the day, then “stores” it on the grid. Basically your electricity provider buys the electricity you produce and sells you back what you need (for the same price…)

@caffeine_dude These systems are basically maintenance free with 1 exception: Inverters last about 15 years. I need to factor that into my calculations, but I don’t know what an inverter costs today, nor do I have any idea what that price will look like in 15 years. I presume it’s not going to have tech-style price drops; I think inverters are as old as Edison.

@caffeine_dude And panels are showing much lower degradation rates than predicted (0.5% vs 1-2%) according to independent articles I’m not going to look for again.

@hachover If the need for generating more power existed, then what you’re proposing may work. Using commercial properties would probably be more beneficial, though - larger transmission lines to handle the power, larger roof area, and fewer sites to deal with, etc.

In the mean time, if folks are willing to pay for the install themselves, then why would they need to change?

@hachover you have a point about them not being effective for the low energy consumer. I think a lot of the companies are pushing it because they have alternative business models - install the system for $0, lease it to the homeowner, and generate ongoing revenue. They may get the tax credits as well (are they still 80%?) since they own the system.

There are net benefits to having more prime generating solar in areas that experience brownouts, as the highest levels of solar generation coincide with the highest demands on the grid.

Some interesting reading/listening about net metering can be found at http://99percentinvisible.org/episode/reversing-the-grid/

@djslack bookmarked for later Mr slack. thanks!

Basically, RECs are how we decouple generation from consumption - I buy a REC from solar/wind plants in Cali, for example, (or my utility does), and use replacement electricity from my utility.

My state even has the utility must buy 100% of their RECs from generators in my state (they buy more than that, but thr overage comes ftom wherevet its cheapest). Its all good as far as Im concerned. And the best part is that its market driven - I force my utility to buy green power in the amount I use. No investment needed. It adds $10 to my $90/mo bill. Simple, and all my electricity is solar/wind. And everyone can sign up for it!

It opens in the AM, tracks all day, then closes up at night. Very cool. Chrck the events on the east coast to see it in action. Mostly around Boston.

@mike808 is someone throws poo on it, how bad a mess you reckon it would make when it closes up?

@therealjrn
$30000/$100 = 300 months
300 months / 12 = 25 years.

@narfcake Thanks, narf.

So.

Do the systems last as long as my Dad’s era hot water tanks?

@jaybird there was more to it, but this is the gist. I think they were modeling it after other municipalities in the country that have already passed similar legislation.

@jaybird Yeah, our damned electric company is pushing back against solar as well. Corporate America, clinging desperately to last century’s tech, because embracing modernization might take a bite out of shareholders’ paychecks.

@therealjrn Tiered rates may mean a solar system can be beneficial. It’s not applicable for everyone, however.

@narfcake I need new roofs here. It could cost up to $180,000.00. Do you think the power company might subsidise and fix my roofs (just old shingles) while they are at it?

@therealjrn They didn’t replace my roof, but they did replace the main service panel. BTW, my system was about 16K which ended up closer to 11K after tax rebates and other discounts.

@InnocuousFarmer Right now, if you’re willing to use simpler machines.

@JerseyFrank heh!

Aw man, I was painting a picture, and you’ve brought me back to capitalism.

@somf69 Talk to my wife, she’ll tell you my ‘wind’ never dies.