@rockblossom Holy macaroni. I got deer coming out the ears here. I just moved and the house behind me is the very last house at the base of a mountain. Deer are here every day. They’ve eaten most of my landscaping and I practically have to jump on their back to get them to leave. I thought I had a lot when I lived in the forest but man… they’re constantly here. They’re cute but I’m about over it now.
@lseeber@RiotDemon My place is overrun with deer year round. They laugh at repellents. And fences. A few years ago, I had a young doe who developed such a taster for the repellant I was using on the roses that she would follow me around so she could get them while the freshly sprayed repellent was still wet. The good thing about the deer is that, unlike raccoons, they don’t try to get inside the house.
@RiotDemon Yeah… Getting some but, most around here say there’s a certain type they use that works best (sort of a liquid fence) but you have to be very diligent about keeping it fresh but it still only works just so well. And, come spring I’m going to be replanting a lot of things with stuff they (hopefully) don’t enjoy so much.
@tnhillbillygal 'bout the same here but prob a bit more than you since I’m a little more south. One yr… don’t recall which name hurricane it was (I think it was in '95 or '96, thought we were far enough north and inland but we got torrents of rain, limbs down and the lower level of my brand new house…on a hill… flooded.
Oh great. I get to drive from AR to MS right through the track of this shit when it is predicted to hit. Hope they are wrong or off by a day. @katylava it’s your fault!!!
@Kidsandliz 8:20am and still raining. My yard (and septic field) are saturated. The pecan tree is pretty much a pecanless tree now. Having gone through Ivan, Katrina, and all the others before and after, I would agree that we were overall lucky with Gordon.
Florence is coming. The weekend place is on the Chesapeake Bay and flooding could be terrible. The storm is projected to stall over our house with 10 plus inches of rain. Be prepared for power outages and flooding they say.
I own two Maglights and went on a flashlight roundup. No big maglights but I did find a few off brands.
@RiotDemon Yeah I agree she doesn’t quite enough. My sister (who has been known to say that a woman can never own too many flashlights) has far more flashlights and more batteries than @sammydog01 does. My sister says she still needs more (so I obliged with the recent meh windup battery sale - happy birthday sister ).
Yikes - stall over the Chesapeake? The north or south end (haven’t seen the projections)? My cousin lives (full time) on bay front property, not all that elevated, on the north end of MD’s eastern shore.
I hope you are elevated enough not to get your own private lake in your livingroom. You planning to move stuff all to your top floor or do you have a ranch? Good luck staying dry.
@Kidsandliz@RiotDemon Storm surge South Carolina to Virginia, heavy inland rain North Carolina or Virginia. It’s too early to tell though. We’re probably not in for much wind damage.
@OldCatLady We’re inland far enough that our problem will be flooding. I bought the last D batteries this morning and bottled water supplies are running low. The news stations are telling everyone to PANIC!!! Not helpful, guys.
@sammydog01 You might want to order a couple of Luci solar LED lanterns, the clear ones. The light they give is incredibly bright, and they last about 16 hours on a charge, in my house. Next day, stick them outside to recharge. I love mine.
@Kidsandliz@RiotDemon@sammydog01 The eastern shore has already dealt with 5 straight days of rain with more coming. Water levels are already high. The ES cannot handle large quantities of rain w/o homes/areas becoming completely flooded. I leave for Miami on wed., but luckily my house has no flooding concerns.
I don’t know if I will get back from Miami on Fri. though - something tells me I might get stuck in Charlotte if the storm is raging then. Who knows if I will ever get out of PHL on wed. (that airport is a nightmare with even the slightest adverse weather).
@mfladd The weekend place is on the Northern Neck- water was up to the dock yesterday which almost never happens. This is hitting at a really bad time.
@OldCatLady I think it is the folks in Sandbridge that will be in even greater trouble than most of VAbeach since when I lived in Newport News, there was one storm where pretty much a good chunk of Sandbridge - especially that southern bit that is about 2 roads wide - was essentially all underwater with salt water and was then part of the Atlantic Ocean or Back Bay depending on your point of view. Although there are parts of Norfolk that are in trouble even in an especially high tide or heavy rain. And Poquoson - that is drained swamp and I think even in a class 2 hurricane only about 3 blocks there would be not flooded.
A friend’s family owns a marina on Willoughby Spit right where the hampton roads bridge tunnel starts (which was created by a hurricane so why people expect that to be permanent land I do not know - it is essentially a primary sand dune which by definition isn’t permanent) and frequently the boat launch and parking lot to get into the “bay” side of that spit was underwater just with normal rains or normal really high tides.
The Navy base on the other side of that little inlet is going to have fun too. That piece of land is no higher. I read (when I lived in Newport News) that with a class 5 hurricane the only bit of land in the entire area that would be above water are the piles of dirt over the end stations of the electronic beam accelerator.
Fortunately when I lived there I was pretty high above the James River in the old shipyard public housing district (now historic district) so being one of the highest points of land, lightening strikes were a risk. My house, while I was in it, was swallowed by a lightening ball (waterspout that hit land touched down in the yard immediately behind me and damaged 10 houses). The tree in the front yard had burn marks from being hit multiple times…
That entire area is going to be struggling with a bunch of rain. And a bunch of other places up the bay and on the eastern shore too.
@OldCatLady I went to Virginia Beach for a concert last week. Hope your friends are OK. I checked out that light and wound up buying a collapsible solar lantern from Best Buy. Haha, frenzied shoppers, you didn’t think to look for lighting in Best Buy, did you? Target, on the other hand, is scary today.
@Kidsandliz The only two airports that would get me to my destination run thru PHL and CHT without having 2 stops in between. In fact, the flight I am on was the only one that came up at all, booking the return flight. I have certain time and expense guidelines I have to follow with work flights.
Such is the life, with a tiny destination airport.
@mfladd Well then stock up on food TSA won’t take from you, a pillow and blanket and hunker down by an outlet to monopolize it (or if you are kind bring a multiplug extension cord) so you can keep things charged. In all seriousness - hope you aren’t held up too long.
@f00l C’mon up…The weather is FINE!! High 70’s to low 80’s every day…Very little precipitation (Certainly not measured in feet) and wind speeds in the teens…
@f00l@sammydog01 As far as I’m aware, we’re still a long way from either ocean…Unless there’s something you know about impending rising waters overnight that I don’t know…(You’re still welcome to visit though…)
@tohar1 you are near the great lakes which empty into the ocean. All they need to do is spread barely a state over. And MN is full of mini great lakes. The entire thing could become a giant lake new ocean front inside a huge bay. Nuf said.
@Kidsandliz Well…we are currently some 300 feet above the level of Lake Superior in elevation. Barring a massive earthquake (not saying it couldn’t happen) I think we’re pretty safe!
@tohar1 Not to worry - you could be covered in glaciers if the tin foil hat gang are right that there is no global warming, never mind that you are in the ash blast radius if the super volcano goes off in Yosemite. Better stock up now.
@tohar1 As an aside on tin foil hats…on a cancer list we were discussing the big bag pharma conspiracy theory only for big profits, poison you bullshit so cure cancer by drinking carrot juice, pot oil, etc. and I commented that the tin foil hat gang needs to adjust their hats to pick up the science based treatment station instead of the “natural and alternative” station… gotta love fools who only selectively believe science is real. Umm… just like gravity, science works all the time, not just when you want it to. I’d love to be able to suspend the laws of gravity when needed - like when I trip on something.
@Kidsandliz@tohar1 I’m not part of the tinfoil hat crowd, and wouldn’t recommend attempting to cure cancer with dilluted wasp venom or whatever over accepting standard medical treatments.
However, I do believe there is a huge gap between acknowledging the existence of gravity and blindly trusting modern medical practices.
Science is done by people and people are flawed.
Medical research is done on humans, and the more humans get in the mix, the more difficult things become.
It’s relatively easy to isolate variables when you’re studying Physics or Chemistry. It’s way harder when you’re studying living things-- especially when those living things are humans and have rights and aren’t being kept in a perfectly controlled lab environment.
It also doesn’t help things too much that medical doctors tend to not be that great at math.
Another confounding factor is the very real attitude within the medical community that they need to make decisions for the greater good of society. That’s not science. That’s social engineering.
My point is, simply, that it’s not really tinfoil hat territory, or even an anti-science position, to have some amount of skepticism about current medical practices and the policies. It doesn’t have to be a grand conspiracy to be questionable.
@Kidsandliz@Limewater Agree wholeheartedly with you. There’s a lot of knowledge out there & perhaps even more knowledge out there to discover. I wouldn’t completely discount diluted wasp venom, pot oil, or carrot juice, it’s just not what I would choose if ever diagnosed. Besides we have an awesome, world renowned cancer hospital (Roger Maris Cancer Center) right here in Fargo. They are doing some amazing things to fight the cancer demon as well as provide both longevity & quality of life to those being treated. They are big into clinical trials & have conducted some of these trials on “alternative” supplements/treatments. I know a few people up there & they are often surprised by the results of these trials. If not a direct treatment, they might learn something that leads them in another direction to try a different course of action.
@Limewater@tohar1 The key is though using science to decide if any of the “alternative” approaches have any merit. As someone said, if there is science behind its efficacy then it is mainstream medicine, if not then it is “alternative medicine”.
@Limewater@tohar1 Fortunately it is researchers, not all practice based medical doctors who do most of the research in medicine, only some are “just” MD’s. Lots of the folks on the research teams have PhD’s and some have both. That some doctors are not good in math is irrelevant since most doctors do not do this kind of research and those that do generally have a research team that includes those with PhD’s who are generally pretty good at math, statistics, research methods, etc.
Typically stuff first gets tested in cultures or on mouse (or other) animals, then if things pan out there, on human tissue (if they didn’t start there), then and only then, if things seem promising, clinical trials (which have a number of ‘stages’ which look at things like safety, dosage, range of outcomes, side effects, and etc. - after a drug is approved they still collect info on side effects although that is more haphazard).
Roughly 2-3 of every 100 “looks like a promising idea” turns into an actual drug that survives the process and is useful. Not every drug in a clinical trial pans out either since humans aren’t mice.
These days drug research and development is also done via start ups, paid for by venture capitalists. Thus once/IF a drug survives the early part of the process and drug company buys the startup aruond the time they are ready to move on to a clinical trial, and does the clinical trial (since it is expensive to do and requires a fair bit of infrastructure - drug companies both have the money and the infrastructure to do this is already in place, more cost effective for the established pharma companies to do it this way too).
If the drug turns out to be one of the failures (before it is even ready for a clinical trial) it doesn’t get bought and the pharma companies save money because it isn’t their failure. If it looks like it is ready for a clinical trial it usually gets bought and the failure rate at this point of the process is much lower so it is less of a risk than developing their own drugs. Of course phamas do their own R&D because you can’t just rely on “outsourcing” to develop everything where there is a need.
So while people are flawed, the process can be flawed, for the most part what goes on is pretty credible, enough things fail during the process that we are protected from a fair bit of “bad stuff”, and this system is far better than relying on testimonials or outright snake oil.
Roughly 2-3 of every 100 “looks like a promising idea” turns into an actual drug that survives the process and is useful. Not every drug in a clinical trial pans out either since humans aren’t mice.
Do you have a citation or source for this statement?
@Kidsandliz@tohar1 That is an oversimplification. I’m not going to defend alternative medicine, but there is a non-trivial subset of mainstream medical practices that persists for various reasons but lacks scientific justification. These things persist due to cultural and social pressures, fear of lawsuits, intertia, and who knows what else.
@therealjrn Not without looking (and I am packing to move in a couple of weeks) but when I taught strategy there was a pharma case that included it with a citation. They are talking about basic research, this idea is worth looking into further for that 100 number, not drugs that made it to the clinical trial stage for that 100 number. Sometimes there are major clinical trial failures - one that was a late stage 3 major failure which was incredibly expensive to the phama company, but the odds are much better once something makes it to clinical trials. The harder part with clinical trials is rounding up enough patients to have enough statistical power blah blah blah. On the one hand many kids with leukemia participate in one, and few adults with blood cancers do… Very uneven participation rates.
@tohar1 the purpose of my comment in the context I use it is to try to convince people that you can’t just selectively “believe in science” and that snake oil has no science behind it. For example if you believe the science based recommendations that (with breast cancer) that a lumpectomy + radiation = mastectomy and that a sentinel node biopsy = take them all out. Then why do you not believe the science behind chemo? That most kids with leukemia died and now most of them live due to science based treatments is an indication that science principles don’t change just because it is chemo… blah blah blah - those are the folks I aimed that gravity/science comment at.
They changed the projected path of the storm yesterday morning so instead of tropical storm force winds and 2 feet of water we expect gusts and 6 inches. Good for us, bad for North Carolina.
Meanwhile, this morning at the grocery store,
You guys know that bread you bought yesterday will be moldy before the storm blows out, right?
@sammydog01 last hurricane the deli counter was slammed with people buying cold cuts. I hope that they all have generators.
I always buy milk cuz I drink a lot… If a storm hit though, that would be perfect time to eat the stuff in my freezer so I don’t go crazy buying food. Mostly water. And gas.
@sammydog01 exactly. I buy stuff that I don’t mind eating afterwards. Gas was annoying to get here last hurricane. Gas cans got crazy expensive too. They have all these new regulations so not only did the price go up, they take forever to empty with the new nozzle.
My brother brought me all the gas cans he had so now I have around 13 gal reserve. Also filled the car and generator right before. Should look for more gas cans…
@RiotDemon If you don’t find more gas cans now, stock up on them once the prices go back down… I know that won’t help now, but you said “the last time”… so I presume there is a good risk you will have a re-run sometime in the future.
@RiotDemon@sammydog01 The “new” regulations are at least six years old, but yeah, the new gas cans are a problem.
A couple of weeks ago, I stopped to help two ladies stuck on the side of the road. One of them had run out of gas, and the other had brought her a full two-gallon can.
However, neither of them could actually figure out how to work the nozzle. When I walked up, they had attempted to fashion a funnel out of a plastic cup, and were trying to pour into it directly from the can with no nozzle.
Needless to say, a lot of gasoline was just running down the side of the vehicle.
I’m really curious if the EPA has done any sort of follow-up study on those new cans to see if there really is any benefit to using them.
@RiotDemon@sammydog01 By the way, more scare-quotes around “new” aren’t meant to be a dig or insult to anyone. I’m honestly just kind of surprised these darn things are still around…
@Limewater@RiotDemon@sammydog01@therealjrn I buy a lot of stuff from our local Army surplus store including fuel cans shown above & the old ammo boxes (Great storage for nearly anything… They are secure, almost water-proof, and very durable!)
The surecan looks easier just for the fact that the nozzle comes from the bottom so you don’t have to try to up-end the can.
@kidsandliz I meant last hurricane, last year. The cans almost doubled in price when one of the biggest suppliers around here went out of business. It’s been a long time since I’ve bought cans.
@RiotDemon@sammydog01 When I buy gas that may be stored for months, I always go to an “Ethanol-free” station.
There’s a few near me and if you check the internet, something like https://www.pure-gas.org/, you may find gas that won’t go bad in a month or so.
I also add a little fuel stabilizer to the can.
The old jerry cans are nice to store gas, a pain to pour from due to their size.
One handy device I’ve used a few times is a ‘shaker siphon hose’. Got it at Amazon. That thing really works to transfer fuel from one place to another fairly quickly. I’ve also used it to empty gas tanks to store equipment over the winter.
Interesting map. Technically to show climate change - however you can set the water level rise up to 10’ and see what is projected to be underwater. You can get it down to the street level by enlarging enough.
Thought some of you in flood zones for this current hurricane mess might want to what will happen with up to 10’ of water flooding. I checked out a couple of my relatives at different water levels to see if they’d likely be dry under higher sea. This WILL NOT account for rain run off, rather where the ocean will end up if the ocean floods land 2’ deep or 6’ deep or 10’ deep or whatever.
@therealjrn So if you don’t you can still use it to see what will be underwater if the ocean was 1-10 feet higher - good for figuring out ocean flooding for this hurricane. Of course your tin foil hat won’t pick up any stations when all the power goes out.
@therealjrn
Does make you wonder though how much of what else we see is pretending. I still remember when Dan Rather was in front of a green screen pretending to be in the hurricane path. I think someone forgot to turn on the fans and mess up his perfect hair to match the background.
@therealjrn following the comments on that twitter thread there is another one of some reporter hanging on to a porch rail being blown back and forth and two young girls are walking down the street texting and waved hi to the camera. Then they have yet another one of two reporters on their knees in the water to show it is deep except the photos of the camera people and the entire scene show otherwise. Sheesh.
@therealjrn Yeah. We’ve noticed the same thing.
The Weather Channel dude is standing in 3’ of water. In the background people walk by casually on the sidewalk. He’s in a flooded parking lot…
Also saw the reporters hanging on and for dear life and screaming while people walk by…
They aren’t helping anything by faking their news.
Monday we had 9 tornados in town- the remnants of Florence. An EF1 touched down within a quarter mile of where my daughter was sheltering in the library storage room at school.
@sammydog01 A quarter mile? That’s a little too close for me. I was going to get my Mom a storm shelter one Christmas awhile back. But thankfully she was honest and told me claustrophobia would keep her from using it. All my life, I never knew that about my Mom…but she saved me some serious cash that day!
@f00l We know, WE KNOW! I’ll go fill my tank tomorrow, and put all the solar stuff out to charge etc. This one really did sneak up on us, though. Cat 3 at landfall is the latest.
Some years ago I interviewed to work at the university in Panama City. Makes me glad now I didn’t get that job. The department chair, at the time, was living on a houseboat in the harbor. If he still works there I hope his boat/home didn’t sink and that chose not to stay on it during the storm.
If people live on the coast for some years or decades, and have some sense and caution, and pay attention to storm evacuate orders, and understand the sea and storms a little bit, then over time, they learn how to deal with being as safe as one can be. At least the non-@f00l(s) learn.
I don’t know about houseboats per se. But my cousin is into watergoing lifestyles to a degree (as much as he can be, his work and life are mostly land-based), and owns (and sometimes lives on) a boat.
He says that if one prepares properly, one’s boat might be safer than one’s house in a hurricane:
(Since your house prob does not float. And can’t move out of the way of storm surges and flooding).
(You would know more about this waterborne big storm risk by far than most of the rest of us tho)
Panama City can be an great area to live in. I would not turn down an attractive job offer there if I ever got one.
They just issued a tornado watch here. The tornado watch after Florence turned into a tornado warning shit show with kids locked down in schools until 6 and an f1 tearing a roof off a church a few blocks from my kids school. My daughter was sheltering in a library with multistory plate glass windows and only one storage room that wasn’t big enough for everyone.
The other schools are all letting out early and I hope ours does the same. The kids are probably already panicking.
Well the eastern shore of MD is the last to get what’s left of the hurricane before it heads out. We have a severe flood warning, but then again - we always flood.
So ya sayin’ we might get some rain?
Oh, why not? It’s too late for turkeys and too early for deer. Is there a bag limit?
@rockblossom There might be a bucket limit…
@rockblossom Holy macaroni. I got deer coming out the ears here. I just moved and the house behind me is the very last house at the base of a mountain. Deer are here every day. They’ve eaten most of my landscaping and I practically have to jump on their back to get them to leave. I thought I had a lot when I lived in the forest but man… they’re constantly here. They’re cute but I’m about over it now.
@lseeber
/image deer repellent
@lseeber @RiotDemon My place is overrun with deer year round. They laugh at repellents. And fences. A few years ago, I had a young doe who developed such a taster for the repellant I was using on the roses that she would follow me around so she could get them while the freshly sprayed repellent was still wet. The good thing about the deer is that, unlike raccoons, they don’t try to get inside the house.
@RiotDemon Yeah… Getting some but, most around here say there’s a certain type they use that works best (sort of a liquid fence) but you have to be very diligent about keeping it fresh but it still only works just so well. And, come spring I’m going to be replanting a lot of things with stuff they (hopefully) don’t enjoy so much.
@RiotDemon @rockblossom haha… sounds about right. One thing some of the neighbors said is that sometimes there are a lot of deer ticks.
I’m glad we have the rain here in Texas (finally)…one of the reasons I left Louisiana though…tired of hurricane season…people lose their damn minds…
We usually just see some extra rain in these parts.
@tnhillbillygal 'bout the same here but prob a bit more than you since I’m a little more south. One yr… don’t recall which name hurricane it was (I think it was in '95 or '96, thought we were far enough north and inland but we got torrents of rain, limbs down and the lower level of my brand new house…on a hill… flooded.
Shh. If you’re quiet, maybe they won’t notice we are here.
I bet my dad had a great day. He lives in Naples.
@rtjhnstn Likely so did those on the east side of it too up the coast since that side of a storm tends to be nastier than the west side of a storm…
My cousin and sister live in Tampa and another cousin lives just east of there. Bet they got a lot of rain too. I’ll have to ask them tomorrow.
Oh great. I get to drive from AR to MS right through the track of this shit when it is predicted to hit. Hope they are wrong or off by a day. @katylava it’s your fault!!!
@Targaryen this reminds me of a photo of me during a hurricane and all three feet of my hair is completely sideways.
Sorry, I’m wearing pajamas and look like absolute garbage so I won’t share the photo.
/image long hair wind
Hurricane Gordon is now making landfall between Mobile and Biloxi. We’re on the eastern edge.
It’s raining.
That is all.
Good night.
@Mehrocco_Mole From this morning’s weather report looks like everyone got pretty lucky overall with this storm.
@Kidsandliz 8:20am and still raining. My yard (and septic field) are saturated. The pecan tree is pretty much a pecanless tree now. Having gone through Ivan, Katrina, and all the others before and after, I would agree that we were overall lucky with Gordon.
@Kidsandliz @Mehrocco_Mole Damn Biloxi can’t catch a break. I only got to visit it once.
Florence is coming. The weekend place is on the Chesapeake Bay and flooding could be terrible. The storm is projected to stall over our house with 10 plus inches of rain. Be prepared for power outages and flooding they say.
I own two Maglights and went on a flashlight roundup. No big maglights but I did find a few off brands.
(Note to self: stop buying flashlights from Meh.)
Off to search for power banks.
@sammydog01 i don’t think you have quite enough yet.
@RiotDemon Yeah I agree she doesn’t quite enough. My sister (who has been known to say that a woman can never own too many flashlights) has far more flashlights and more batteries than @sammydog01 does. My sister says she still needs more (so I obliged with the recent meh windup battery sale - happy birthday sister
).
Yikes - stall over the Chesapeake? The north or south end (haven’t seen the projections)? My cousin lives (full time) on bay front property, not all that elevated, on the north end of MD’s eastern shore.
I hope you are elevated enough not to get your own private lake in your livingroom. You planning to move stuff all to your top floor or do you have a ranch? Good luck staying dry.
@sammydog01 I’m watching this with concern. I lived in VaBch for 30 years, and friends there are in full survival mode. Please stay safe.
@Kidsandliz @RiotDemon Storm surge South Carolina to Virginia, heavy inland rain North Carolina or Virginia. It’s too early to tell though. We’re probably not in for much wind damage.
@OldCatLady We’re inland far enough that our problem will be flooding. I bought the last D batteries this morning and bottled water supplies are running low. The news stations are telling everyone to PANIC!!! Not helpful, guys.
@sammydog01 You might want to order a couple of Luci solar LED lanterns, the clear ones. The light they give is incredibly bright, and they last about 16 hours on a charge, in my house. Next day, stick them outside to recharge. I love mine.
@Kidsandliz @RiotDemon @sammydog01 The eastern shore has already dealt with 5 straight days of rain with more coming. Water levels are already high. The ES cannot handle large quantities of rain w/o homes/areas becoming completely flooded. I leave for Miami on wed., but luckily my house has no flooding concerns.
I don’t know if I will get back from Miami on Fri. though - something tells me I might get stuck in Charlotte if the storm is raging then. Who knows if I will ever get out of PHL on wed. (that airport is a nightmare with even the slightest adverse weather).
@mfladd The weekend place is on the Northern Neck- water was up to the dock yesterday which almost never happens. This is hitting at a really bad time.
@sammydog01 You’re right. Stay safe!
@mfladd Enjoy Miami!
@OldCatLady I think it is the folks in Sandbridge that will be in even greater trouble than most of VAbeach since when I lived in Newport News, there was one storm where pretty much a good chunk of Sandbridge - especially that southern bit that is about 2 roads wide - was essentially all underwater with salt water and was then part of the Atlantic Ocean or Back Bay depending on your point of view. Although there are parts of Norfolk that are in trouble even in an especially high tide or heavy rain. And Poquoson - that is drained swamp and I think even in a class 2 hurricane only about 3 blocks there would be not flooded.
A friend’s family owns a marina on Willoughby Spit right where the hampton roads bridge tunnel starts (which was created by a hurricane so why people expect that to be permanent land I do not know - it is essentially a primary sand dune which by definition isn’t permanent) and frequently the boat launch and parking lot to get into the “bay” side of that spit was underwater just with normal rains or normal really high tides.
The Navy base on the other side of that little inlet is going to have fun too. That piece of land is no higher. I read (when I lived in Newport News) that with a class 5 hurricane the only bit of land in the entire area that would be above water are the piles of dirt over the end stations of the electronic beam accelerator.
Fortunately when I lived there I was pretty high above the James River in the old shipyard public housing district (now historic district) so being one of the highest points of land, lightening strikes were a risk. My house, while I was in it, was swallowed by a lightening ball (waterspout that hit land touched down in the yard immediately behind me and damaged 10 houses). The tree in the front yard had burn marks from being hit multiple times…
That entire area is going to be struggling with a bunch of rain. And a bunch of other places up the bay and on the eastern shore too.
@OldCatLady I went to Virginia Beach for a concert last week. Hope your friends are OK. I checked out that light and wound up buying a collapsible solar lantern from Best Buy. Haha, frenzied shoppers, you didn’t think to look for lighting in Best Buy, did you? Target, on the other hand, is scary today.
@sammydog01 They carry the MPOWERD line, so you got a Luci. Good buy!
@OldCatLady @sammydog01 Better keep those batteries cold so they are at max power when you need them.
@f00l Something tells me I am fucked flying thru Charlotte on Friday.
@f00l @mfladd I think you need a couple extra days in Miami.
@mfladd just go to South Beach.
@mfladd
/giphy Miami bikini
@RiotDemon Dolphin cheerleaders!?
@mfladd Most airlines apparently have a no penalty fee right now to change flights. If you need a hub, go through Atlanta or Chicago something.
@Kidsandliz The only two airports that would get me to my destination run thru PHL and CHT without having 2 stops in between. In fact, the flight I am on was the only one that came up at all, booking the return flight. I have certain time and expense guidelines I have to follow with work flights.
Such is the life, with a tiny destination airport.
@mfladd Well then stock up on food TSA won’t take from you, a pillow and blanket and hunker down by an outlet to monopolize it (or if you are kind bring a multiplug extension cord) so you can keep things charged. In all seriousness - hope you aren’t held up too long.
Just now.
Be safe, y’all
@f00l “…Further strengthening is anticipated,…”- NHC
@f00l @OldCatLady “historic flooding…” -NHC
@f00l @OldCatLady @sammydog01 that sucks big time.
@f00l @OldCatLady @sammydog01 15 to 20 foot storm surge
@CaptAmehrican Hope you miss the bulk of the rain so you don’t get flooded again.
@CaptAmehrican Yikes! Are you evacuating? It looks like the storm is pushing south so that helps you, right?
@CaptAmehrican Time to head for the hills.
Shelter animals need all the help you can give. This groups is evacuating dogs and cats. https://www.facebook.com/bigfluffydogrescue
BigFluffyDogs is the group. They need fosters and walkers, too.
They are taking money via paypal, and for you cat lovers, regardless of their name they took 21 dogs and 15 cats from one of the SC island shelters.
https://www.paypal.com/donate/?token=M8G-y5KtnsEs0IrLHihwwuHHWs3OFoY-_ho0e9ZnRzjfPB3HsSceP2ra3M9f_ucTjJGa8G&country.x=US&locale.x=US
I just saw that Florida Power and Light is sending roughly 500 contractors to South Carolina to be ready to help.
Meanwhile, here in Northern California we’re still on fire. We’d love to take some of that rain off your hands.
Yeah seriously.
I’m sure you guys already know, but Reed Timmer on facebook is a good page to follow for additional updates.
@riskybryzness I hadn’t known. Thanks very much. Now would you please steer Florence off its southward track? I’m in NE Florida.
@OldCatLady I’ll get all the fans and point them in that direction.
Just FYI: We’ve never had a hurricane strike us in Fargo, ND…#JustSayin
Please be safe all who are in the path of these storms!!
@tohar1
I never thought!
@f00l C’mon up…The weather is FINE!! High 70’s to low 80’s every day…Very little precipitation (Certainly not measured in feet) and wind speeds in the teens…
@f00l @tohar1 It’s a traaaap!
Akbar
@tohar1 Just you wait - with climate change you might end up ocean front and then you will be sorry.
@Kidsandliz If Fargo ever ends up beach-front property, you will be welcomed to my first luau!!
@f00l @tohar1 Thanks for the offer. I’ll bring cookies. Does tomorrow at noon work for you?
@f00l @sammydog01 As far as I’m aware, we’re still a long way from either ocean…Unless there’s something you know about impending rising waters overnight that I don’t know…(You’re still welcome to visit though…)
@tohar1 you are near the great lakes which empty into the ocean. All they need to do is spread barely a state over. And MN is full of mini great lakes. The entire thing could become a
giant lakenew ocean front inside a huge bay. Nuf said.@Kidsandliz Well…we are currently some 300 feet above the level of Lake Superior in elevation. Barring a massive earthquake (not saying it couldn’t happen) I think we’re pretty safe!
@tohar1 Not to worry - you could be covered in glaciers if the tin foil hat gang are right that there is no global warming, never mind that you are in the ash blast radius if the super volcano goes off in Yosemite. Better stock up now.
@Kidsandliz In all honesty, I am more worried about the later than the former…
@tohar1 As an aside on tin foil hats…on a cancer list we were discussing the big bag pharma conspiracy theory only for big profits, poison you bullshit so cure cancer by drinking carrot juice, pot oil, etc. and I commented that the tin foil hat gang needs to adjust their hats to pick up the science based treatment station instead of the “natural and alternative” station… gotta love fools who only selectively believe science is real. Umm… just like gravity, science works all the time, not just when you want it to. I’d love to be able to suspend the laws of gravity when needed - like when I trip on something.
@Kidsandliz @tohar1 I’m not part of the tinfoil hat crowd, and wouldn’t recommend attempting to cure cancer with dilluted wasp venom or whatever over accepting standard medical treatments.
However, I do believe there is a huge gap between acknowledging the existence of gravity and blindly trusting modern medical practices.
Science is done by people and people are flawed.
Medical research is done on humans, and the more humans get in the mix, the more difficult things become.
It’s relatively easy to isolate variables when you’re studying Physics or Chemistry. It’s way harder when you’re studying living things-- especially when those living things are humans and have rights and aren’t being kept in a perfectly controlled lab environment.
It also doesn’t help things too much that medical doctors tend to not be that great at math.
Another confounding factor is the very real attitude within the medical community that they need to make decisions for the greater good of society. That’s not science. That’s social engineering.
My point is, simply, that it’s not really tinfoil hat territory, or even an anti-science position, to have some amount of skepticism about current medical practices and the policies. It doesn’t have to be a grand conspiracy to be questionable.
@Kidsandliz @Limewater Agree wholeheartedly with you. There’s a lot of knowledge out there & perhaps even more knowledge out there to discover. I wouldn’t completely discount diluted wasp venom, pot oil, or carrot juice, it’s just not what I would choose if ever diagnosed. Besides we have an awesome, world renowned cancer hospital (Roger Maris Cancer Center) right here in Fargo. They are doing some amazing things to fight the cancer demon as well as provide both longevity & quality of life to those being treated. They are big into clinical trials & have conducted some of these trials on “alternative” supplements/treatments. I know a few people up there & they are often surprised by the results of these trials. If not a direct treatment, they might learn something that leads them in another direction to try a different course of action.
@Limewater @tohar1 The key is though using science to decide if any of the “alternative” approaches have any merit. As someone said, if there is science behind its efficacy then it is mainstream medicine, if not then it is “alternative medicine”.
@Limewater @tohar1 Fortunately it is researchers, not all practice based medical doctors who do most of the research in medicine, only some are “just” MD’s. Lots of the folks on the research teams have PhD’s and some have both. That some doctors are not good in math is irrelevant since most doctors do not do this kind of research and those that do generally have a research team that includes those with PhD’s who are generally pretty good at math, statistics, research methods, etc.
Typically stuff first gets tested in cultures or on mouse (or other) animals, then if things pan out there, on human tissue (if they didn’t start there), then and only then, if things seem promising, clinical trials (which have a number of ‘stages’ which look at things like safety, dosage, range of outcomes, side effects, and etc. - after a drug is approved they still collect info on side effects although that is more haphazard).
Roughly 2-3 of every 100 “looks like a promising idea” turns into an actual drug that survives the process and is useful. Not every drug in a clinical trial pans out either since humans aren’t mice.
These days drug research and development is also done via start ups, paid for by venture capitalists. Thus once/IF a drug survives the early part of the process and drug company buys the startup aruond the time they are ready to move on to a clinical trial, and does the clinical trial (since it is expensive to do and requires a fair bit of infrastructure - drug companies both have the money and the infrastructure to do this is already in place, more cost effective for the established pharma companies to do it this way too).
If the drug turns out to be one of the failures (before it is even ready for a clinical trial) it doesn’t get bought and the pharma companies save money because it isn’t their failure. If it looks like it is ready for a clinical trial it usually gets bought and the failure rate at this point of the process is much lower so it is less of a risk than developing their own drugs. Of course phamas do their own R&D because you can’t just rely on “outsourcing” to develop everything where there is a need.
So while people are flawed, the process can be flawed, for the most part what goes on is pretty credible, enough things fail during the process that we are protected from a fair bit of “bad stuff”, and this system is far better than relying on testimonials or outright snake oil.
@Kidsandliz
Do you have a citation or source for this statement?
@Kidsandliz @tohar1 That is an oversimplification. I’m not going to defend alternative medicine, but there is a non-trivial subset of mainstream medical practices that persists for various reasons but lacks scientific justification. These things persist due to cultural and social pressures, fear of lawsuits, intertia, and who knows what else.
@therealjrn Not without looking (and I am packing to move in a couple of weeks) but when I taught strategy there was a pharma case that included it with a citation. They are talking about basic research, this idea is worth looking into further for that 100 number, not drugs that made it to the clinical trial stage for that 100 number. Sometimes there are major clinical trial failures - one that was a late stage 3 major failure which was incredibly expensive to the phama company, but the odds are much better once something makes it to clinical trials. The harder part with clinical trials is rounding up enough patients to have enough statistical power blah blah blah. On the one hand many kids with leukemia participate in one, and few adults with blood cancers do… Very uneven participation rates.
@tohar1 the purpose of my comment in the context I use it is to try to convince people that you can’t just selectively “believe in science” and that snake oil has no science behind it. For example if you believe the science based recommendations that (with breast cancer) that a lumpectomy + radiation = mastectomy and that a sentinel node biopsy = take them all out. Then why do you not believe the science behind chemo? That most kids with leukemia died and now most of them live due to science based treatments is an indication that science principles don’t change just because it is chemo… blah blah blah - those are the folks I aimed that gravity/science comment at.
They changed the projected path of the storm yesterday morning so instead of tropical storm force winds and 2 feet of water we expect gusts and 6 inches. Good for us, bad for North Carolina.
Meanwhile, this morning at the grocery store,
You guys know that bread you bought yesterday will be moldy before the storm blows out, right?
@sammydog01 last hurricane the deli counter was slammed with people buying cold cuts. I hope that they all have generators.
I always buy milk cuz I drink a lot… If a storm hit though, that would be perfect time to eat the stuff in my freezer so I don’t go crazy buying food. Mostly water. And gas.
@RiotDemon I bought water and gas too. But I’ll use both of those either way.
@sammydog01 exactly. I buy stuff that I don’t mind eating afterwards. Gas was annoying to get here last hurricane. Gas cans got crazy expensive too. They have all these new regulations so not only did the price go up, they take forever to empty with the new nozzle.
My brother brought me all the gas cans he had so now I have around 13 gal reserve. Also filled the car and generator right before. Should look for more gas cans…
@RiotDemon If you don’t find more gas cans now, stock up on them once the prices go back down… I know that won’t help now, but you said “the last time”… so I presume there is a good risk you will have a re-run sometime in the future.
@RiotDemon @sammydog01 The “new” regulations are at least six years old, but yeah, the new gas cans are a problem.
A couple of weeks ago, I stopped to help two ladies stuck on the side of the road. One of them had run out of gas, and the other had brought her a full two-gallon can.
However, neither of them could actually figure out how to work the nozzle. When I walked up, they had attempted to fashion a funnel out of a plastic cup, and were trying to pour into it directly from the can with no nozzle.
Needless to say, a lot of gasoline was just running down the side of the vehicle.
I’m really curious if the EPA has done any sort of follow-up study on those new cans to see if there really is any benefit to using them.
@RiotDemon @sammydog01 By the way, more scare-quotes around “new” aren’t meant to be a dig or insult to anyone. I’m honestly just kind of surprised these darn things are still around…
@Limewater @RiotDemon @sammydog01 So I take it those 5 gallon jerry cans are out of the picture now?
/image jerry can
@Limewater @RiotDemon @sammydog01 @therealjrn
I had to use such a “new” has can recently.
Even after I figured out how, I couldn’t keep the can balanced or positioned, and the release pressured just right, to actually use it.
What’s the point of this? “Safety + unusability”?
@Limewater @RiotDemon @sammydog01 @therealjrn I buy a lot of stuff from our local Army surplus store including fuel cans shown above & the old ammo boxes (Great storage for nearly anything… They are secure, almost water-proof, and very durable!)
@f00l @Limewater @RiotDemon @sammydog01 @therealjrn I have a couple of the “old style” that have outlasted my one “new style” can and I’m trying to keep them around as long as I can.
But this looks intriguing (if expensive):
/image surecan gas can
@djslack @f00l @Limewater @sammydog01 @therealjrn
I was actually looking at the Jerry can. There was a set of four for $84. A little pricey, but maybe easier to use?
The surecan looks easier just for the fact that the nozzle comes from the bottom so you don’t have to try to up-end the can.
@kidsandliz I meant last hurricane, last year. The cans almost doubled in price when one of the biggest suppliers around here went out of business. It’s been a long time since I’ve bought cans.
@RiotDemon @sammydog01 When I buy gas that may be stored for months, I always go to an “Ethanol-free” station.
There’s a few near me and if you check the internet, something like https://www.pure-gas.org/, you may find gas that won’t go bad in a month or so.
I also add a little fuel stabilizer to the can.
The old jerry cans are nice to store gas, a pain to pour from due to their size.
One handy device I’ve used a few times is a ‘shaker siphon hose’. Got it at Amazon. That thing really works to transfer fuel from one place to another fairly quickly. I’ve also used it to empty gas tanks to store equipment over the winter.
@daveinwarsh pain to pour? I’ll pass on the Jerry cans then. 5gals gets pretty heavy while pouring.
Love the wonder pump. People don’t believe me when I tell them about it.
Stormy Daniels cancelled her shows scheduled here for tomorrow night. I expect a lot of people will be disappointed.
/giphy Stormy Daniels
@sammydog01
Uhaul is doing a good thing:
https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/15301/U-Haul-Offers-30-Days-Free-Self-Storage-AT-94-Locations-IN-Advance-Of-Hurricane-Florence/
Hopes & Prayers that those in the path of hurricane Florence stay safe and hopefully evacuate if possible.
This is a pretty big one.
Interesting map. Technically to show climate change - however you can set the water level rise up to 10’ and see what is projected to be underwater. You can get it down to the street level by enlarging enough.
Thought some of you in flood zones for this current hurricane mess might want to what will happen with up to 10’ of water flooding. I checked out a couple of my relatives at different water levels to see if they’d likely be dry under higher sea. This WILL NOT account for rain run off, rather where the ocean will end up if the ocean floods land 2’ deep or 6’ deep or 10’ deep or whatever.
https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#10/34.1010/-77.8114?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-Flood20pct&level=6&unit=feet&pois=hide
@Kidsandliz Sure, if you’re one of the tin foil hat people who believe in “climate change.”
@therealjrn So if you don’t you can still use it to see what will be underwater if the ocean was 1-10 feet higher - good for figuring out ocean flooding for this hurricane. Of course your tin foil hat won’t pick up any stations when all the power goes out.
Hope all of you in the heavy rain areas manage to stay dry and not get a lake or river in your living room.
And people wonder why some of us question everything.
@therealjrn Bettes was standing on grass and those guys were on concrete. That’s his story and he’s sticking to it.
@sammydog01 @therealjrn
Glad he’s sticking to something - if not the ground.
@therealjrn
Does make you wonder though how much of what else we see is pretending. I still remember when Dan Rather was in front of a green screen pretending to be in the hurricane path. I think someone forgot to turn on the fans and mess up his perfect hair to match the background.
@therealjrn following the comments on that twitter thread there is another one of some reporter hanging on to a porch rail being blown back and forth and two young girls are walking down the street texting and waved hi to the camera. Then they have yet another one of two reporters on their knees in the water to show it is deep except the photos of the camera people and the entire scene show otherwise. Sheesh.
@therealjrn Yeah. We’ve noticed the same thing.
The Weather Channel dude is standing in 3’ of water. In the background people walk by casually on the sidewalk. He’s in a flooded parking lot…
Also saw the reporters hanging on and for dear life and screaming while people walk by…
They aren’t helping anything by faking their news.
Monday we had 9 tornados in town- the remnants of Florence. An EF1 touched down within a quarter mile of where my daughter was sheltering in the library storage room at school.
Is Kansas moving east?
@sammydog01 A quarter mile? That’s a little too close for me. I was going to get my Mom a storm shelter one Christmas awhile back. But thankfully she was honest and told me claustrophobia would keep her from using it. All my life, I never knew that about my Mom…but she saved me some serious cash that day!
@sammydog01 We haven’t had any tornadoes around where I live for two years. You can keep 'em.
Hurricane Florence helped spin up new storms in the Atlantic
Hello Florida and Gulf Coast!
@f00l We know, WE KNOW! I’ll go fill my tank tomorrow, and put all the solar stuff out to charge etc. This one really did sneak up on us, though. Cat 3 at landfall is the latest.
@f00l @OldCatLady Wow, that blew up fast.
@f00l Hang On!
@daveinwarsh @f00l Looks like my cat.
They’re predicting it will still be cat1 when it gets to Columbia which means we’ll get healthy tropical storm winds and rain here. That’s gonna suck.
As of 2 PM EST, its winds are 2 mph under a Cat 5. It’s a quibble.
How is everyone doing?
@f00l DOING GREAT, WINDS ARE HIGH. IMMA STANDING HERE REPOR…
@therealjrn
/giphy “Okie storm surge”
Its very wet and windy here
Some years ago I interviewed to work at the university in Panama City. Makes me glad now I didn’t get that job. The department chair, at the time, was living on a houseboat in the harbor. If he still works there I hope his boat/home didn’t sink and that chose not to stay on it during the storm.
@Kidsandliz
If people live on the coast for some years or decades, and have some sense and caution, and pay attention to storm evacuate orders, and understand the sea and storms a little bit, then over time, they learn how to deal with being as safe as one can be. At least the non-@f00l(s) learn.
I don’t know about houseboats per se. But my cousin is into watergoing lifestyles to a degree (as much as he can be, his work and life are mostly land-based), and owns (and sometimes lives on) a boat.
He says that if one prepares properly, one’s boat might be safer than one’s house in a hurricane:
(Since your house prob does not float. And can’t move out of the way of storm surges and flooding).
(You would know more about this waterborne big storm risk by far than most of the rest of us tho)
Panama City can be an great area to live in. I would not turn down an attractive job offer there if I ever got one.
They just issued a tornado watch here. The tornado watch after Florence turned into a tornado warning shit show with kids locked down in schools until 6 and an f1 tearing a roof off a church a few blocks from my kids school. My daughter was sheltering in a library with multistory plate glass windows and only one storage room that wasn’t big enough for everyone.
The other schools are all letting out early and I hope ours does the same. The kids are probably already panicking.
@sammydog01 And it’s early dismissal- I’m in the pickup loop over an hour early to beat the other moms.
/giphy take that, bitches
@sammydog01 Hey, we’re featured on the Weather Channel!
It’s wet and icky out there. Just got back to my desk after hunting and gathering a chicken club sandwich at Denny’s. Not much wind, but drizzly ick.
@cranky1950 The Denny’s Superbird sandwich is acceptable as well.
@therealjrn I eat off the over 55 menu usually
@cranky1950 @therealjrn OMG. I just realized that I’m now eligible for that menu!
@compunaut @cranky1950 @therealjrn Me too!
@compunaut @cranky1950 @therealjrn I will be in July
@mfladd
@compunaut @cranky1950 @mfladd @therealjrn @RiotDemon
Re over 55 (that’s in the rear view mirror now)
/giphy Groucho Marx
@RiotDemon I don’t look it though. Recently, I was at a work meeting and a new colleague guessed my age at 45. She’s my new friend
@mfladd hooray for new friends!
Well the eastern shore of MD is the last to get what’s left of the hurricane before it heads out. We have a severe flood warning, but then again - we always flood.
I hope everyone made it thru ok!